Saturday’s clash at Molineux sees Wolves take on Leeds United in what feels like a must-win game for the hosts.
Wolves are still without a win in the Premier League this season and find themselves sitting at the bottom of the table. They have shown flashes of good play but haven’t been able to turn performances into points. This home fixture is a big chance to get their first three points of the campaign and lift confidence.
Leeds, meanwhile, have only one victory so far — their opening day win against Everton — and have since struggled to find consistency. They lost against fulham at the Craven Cottage their last match but continue to lack goals from open play, which could make this a tricky trip to Molineux.
Wolves: Tactics Under Pressure
Vítor Pereira’s Wolves have struggled to find consistency this season, with only two goals scored in their last four matches — both coming in a losing effort against Everton at home. Creativity and clinical finishing remain Wolves’ biggest issues.
Defensively, however, they showed improvement in their last outing at St James’ Park, holding Newcastle to just one goal in a game many predicted would end in a heavy defeat. Pereira’s switch to a 3-5-2 formation helped tighten things up at the back, which could once again be the approach here.
For Wolves to climb off the bottom of the table, they will need to turn their defensive stability into something more productive going forward
Leeds: Hard to Break, Hard to Trust
Leeds are a defensively organized side under their new system, having lined up in a classic 4-3-3 formation against Fulham last week and holding them until conceding in stoppage time. Creativity is still a concern — Leeds have scored just one goal in their last four games, and it came from the penalty spot.
Their low attacking output makes it hard to trust them to create enough danger away from home, but they will be hard to break down and could frustrate Wolves for long spells.
Wolves vs Leeds – Odds Analysis
- Wolves Win: 2.74 | 17/8
- Leeds Win: 2.92 | 19/10
- Draw: 3.35 | 47/20
This is priced as a very tight fixture — bookmakers are giving Wolves only a slight edge due to home advantage. Leeds’ price reflects their poor attacking record, while the draw is a realistic outcome if both sides struggle to score.
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Wolves: Time to Convert Performances into Wins:
Vítor Pereira’s Wolves have looked more solid defensively in recent games but continue to struggle in attack. Only two goals in four matches is a big concern, and both came in one game they still managed to lose.
Leeds: Organized but Goal-Shy:
Leeds remain a tough side to beat under their 4-3-3 setup. They frustrated Fulham until conceding in stoppage time in their last match, showing how compact they can be.
The problem remains the same — very little threat from open play. Without more cutting edge, they risk letting winnable games slip away.
Over/Under Goals – Tricky Market
This fixture is tough to call for the goals market.
- Why It’s Tricky: Both teams are defensively solid, so results like 0-0 or 1-0 are very possible.
- Why Goals Could Come: Both Wolves and Leeds badly need three points to climb the table. This urgency could lead to more attacking intent and an open second half, making scorelines like 2-2, 2-1, or 3-2 possible.
Market Odds:
- Over 2.5 Goals: ~2.25 (5/4) – Value bet if you expect a breakthrough.
- Under 2.5 Goals: ~1.65 (8/15) – Safer, reflecting both teams’ low scoring history.
Anytime Goalscorer
- Wolves: Hwang Hee-chan has a small chance of getting on the scoresheet. If Jørgen Strand Larsen is fully fit, he could make an impact as a late substitute — worth watching team news.
- Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin started last match vs Fulham and could be their best chance of scoring.
Advice: This market is risky for this fixture, given both teams’ inconsistency in attack. Casual punters might want to avoid it unless lineups confirm attacking players starting.
BTTS – Both Team to Score
This is one of the trickiest BTTS markets of the weekend. Bookmakers have priced Yes at 1.97 and No at 1.98, which tells you everything — they are just as unsure as we are. Wolves have scored only two goals in four matches, and Leeds are still searching for an open-play goal.
The game could easily end 1-0, 0-0, or 2-0 given both sides’ defensive discipline, but there is also the possibility of a late equalizer if one team goes behind. That uncertainty makes BTTS a very risky bet in this fixture.
For punters, the smarter play is to avoid the BTTS market and focus on safer bets like Under 3.5 Goals or backing Wolves to win if you trust their home advantage.
| BTTS Option | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Yes | ❌ Avoid – Too risky with Leeds’ poor attacking record |
| No | ❌ Avoid – Wolves’ defence could still allow a late Leeds goal |
My Picks
Over 1.5 Goals (In-Play): If the score is 0-0 at halftime, odds will drift closer to 1.80–1.90, offering better value for a game that might open up in the second half.
Over 2.5 Goals (In-Play): If the game looks end-to-end from the opening minutes (plenty of shots, corners, attacking intent), back this at better odds in-play.
Final Verdict
This is a must-win clash for both Wolves and Leeds, but goals may come late rather than early. Expect a cautious first half, with Wolves using their home crowd to build momentum. If the game opens up, Wolves’ attack should create enough chances to edge it. Leeds will frustrate, but their lack of open-play goals remains a big concern.
