The Vitality Stadium sets the stage for the first clash of Premier League Gameweek 7, as Bournemouth host Fulham.
Bournemouth have had a strong and promising start under Andoni Iraola, sitting 6th in the table with 3 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 defeat – an impressive record that even places them above Manchester City at this stage. Their last outing was a 2-2 draw at Elland Road against Leeds.
On the other side, Marco Silva’s Fulham are still trying to find consistency. With 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, the London club sit mid-table and will be eager to turn things around after a disappointing 3-1 defeat against Aston Villa at Villa Park – a game that marked Villa’s first win of the season. Fulham’s performances have been a mix of defensive resilience and lapses in concentration, while their attack has yet to hit peak rhythm. Playing away at a ground where Bournemouth have been solid will be a real test of character.
This fixture has all the ingredients of a balanced contest – Bournemouth’s intensity against Fulham’s resilience. The question remains: will Bournemouth continue their momentum at home, or can Fulham frustrate them and snatch points away?
Bournemouth vs Fulham – Odds Analysis
- Bournemouth: 1.92 (10/11)
- Fulham: 4.5 (7.2)
- Draw: 3.75 (11/4)
The bookmakers slightly lean towards a Bournemouth home win but not overwhelmingly. The numbers suggest this fixture is far from straightforward and could easily swing either way.
Looking at the head-to-head record, Bournemouth have had the upper hand historically, winning 6 of the 13 meetings across the Premier League and Championship. Fulham, on the other hand, have only managed 2 wins, while 5 clashes ended in draws – indicating that this fixture often produces tight, evenly contested battles.
Given both sides’ balance of strengths and weaknesses, predicting a clear winner is difficult, and a draw shouldn’t be ruled out.
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Bournemouth have shown a fairly balanced profile this season, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded in the Premier League. At home, a 0-0 draw vs Newcastle, a 1-0 win vs Wolves, indicating that games can be cagey and low-scoring at times. Fulham, meanwhile, have scored 7 and conceded 8, with only one clean sheet so far (against Leeds at Craven Cottage), which suggests they are vulnerable defensively but also capable of finding the net.
Looking at the head-to-head history, this fixture has been surprisingly lively: in the last 13 meetings across all competitions, none ended 0-0. The most recent clash at the Vitality was a 1-0 Bournemouth win (Semenyo scoring in the 1st minute). Out of those 13 meetings, only two matches ended with a single goal margin, both at the Vitality – one win each for Bournemouth and Fulham (2019). This points to a higher probability of Over 1.5 goals being a safe pick, though the Under 2.5 remains a riskier but possible angle given both sides’ occasional defensive solidity.
Anytime Goalscorer
For Bournemouth, the standout pick is Antoine Semenyo. The Ghanaian winger is currently 2nd in the Premier League top scorers list with 4 goals so far, level with Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) and only behind Erling Haaland (8 goals). Semenyo has been in excellent form, averaging a 7.8 match rating, and looks sharp both on and off the ball. Given his consistency and threat at the Vitality, he is the most likely candidate to find the net for Bournemouth.
On the other hand, Fulham’s attack is spread out with no clear standout scorer. Players like Alex Iwobi, Harry Wilson, and Emile Smith Rowe have all contributed with single goals, which makes it tricky to pick a reliable anytime scorer from their side. Fulham’s unpredictability in front of goal adds risk to this market.
Verdict: The safer move is to skip this market altogether. However, if you’re already in profit or looking for a speculative edge, backing Semenyo to score anytime carries the most value given his current form.
BTTS – Both Team to Score
The BTTS market here is a little tricky. Bookmakers have priced Yes at 1.84 and No at 2.12, leaning slightly towards both teams to score. Historically, the stats make this interesting: in the last 13 meetings between these two sides, there has never been a 0-0 draw. That’s a strong indication of goals at both ends. However, there’s also balance to consider — the last meeting at the Vitality finished 1-0 to Bournemouth, showing that a low-scoring, one-sided result is also possible.
Verdict: While the stats lean towards BTTS Yes, the cautious play would be to avoid this market because of Fulham’s inconsistency and Bournemouth’s occasional defensive solidity. If someone wants to take it, BTTS Yes has a slightly higher probability, but it’s not as safe as Over 1.5 goals.
Bournemouth vs Fulham Head-to-Head Fact
- Total meetings (last 13 in Premier League & Championship):
- Bournemouth wins: 6
- Fulham wins: 2
- Draws: 5
- No 0-0 results in their last 13 matches – there’s always been at least 1 goal scored.
- Last meeting at the Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth won 1-0 (goal from Antoine Semenyo in the 1st minute).
- Fulham’s last away win vs Bournemouth: Back in 2019 in the Premier League (1-0 at Vitality).
- Biggest win margin in H2Hs:
- Bournemouth beat Fulham 1-5 in 2015 at Craven Cottage (Championship)
- High-scoring trends:
- Out of the last 13, 7 games had Over 2.5 goals, while 6 had Under 2.5.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 13 games, showing balance but not a guaranteed BTTS fixture.
- Home advantage: Bournemouth have been the stronger side at the Vitality, winning 4 of their last 6 home games vs Fulham.
Summary for prediction:
The H2H data suggests Bournemouth have the upper hand historically, especially at home. Goals are almost always present, but the margin is often narrow (1-0 or 2-1). BTTS has happened in a fair share of games but not consistently, so Over 1.5 goals looks safer than BTTS.
My Picks
- Over 1.5 Goals (Safest pick): Best taken in-play if the score stays 0-0 at halftime, as odds will rise to a more valuable range.
Final Verdict
This fixture at the Vitality is shaping up to be a tight but lively contest. Bournemouth, under Ireola, are in strong early-season form, sitting higher in the table than expected. With Semenyo in great scoring touch, their attack has bite, while defensively they’ve shown resilience at home (0-0 vs Newcastle, 1-0 vs Wolves). Fulham, meanwhile, are tactically organized but inconsistent in attack. They’ve shared goals across multiple players, which makes them less predictable in front of goal but also less threatening compared to Bournemouth’s sharper edge.
Head-to-head history favors Bournemouth, especially at home where they’ve dominated Fulham in recent years. Importantly, there hasn’t been a 0-0 between these sides in their last 13 meetings, though tight 1-0 scorelines have occurred – including the last one at this very ground. Bookmakers lean slightly toward Bournemouth, but the odds suggest it could still swing either way.
Safest Pick: Over 1.5 goals (historically very reliable between these two).
Risky Value Pick: Bournemouth to win (odds ~1.92) given their form and H2H dominance at home.
Avoid: Anytime goalscorer market for Fulham – too unpredictable.
BTTS: Risky; yes is favored by bookies but not consistent in this fixture.
Overall, the safest betting angle is Over 1.5 goals, while those chasing extra value may consider a Bournemouth home win, but Fulham’s resilience means a draw can’t be ruled out.
Bournemouth vs Fulham Injury Updates
Bournemouth
- Lewis Cook (Shoulder Injury) – Doubtful. Could return in time for this game, but if not fully fit, he may only feature as a substitute.
- Adam Smith (Hamstring) – Nearing recovery, expected around the first week of October. Might get limited minutes from the bench if cleared.
- Enes Ünal (Cruciate Ligament Injury) – Ruled out long-term. No chance of featuring.
Fulham
- Raúl Jiménez (Injury vs Aston Villa) – Scored early but was forced off in the 11th minute. His availability is doubtful and will depend on late fitness tests.
- Kenny Tete (Knee Injury) – Status unclear, still sidelined with no fixed recovery timeline.
