Leeds have made a gradual return to the Premier League, ranking 12th with 8 points from their first six games (2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses). Daniel Farke’s side is yet to lose at home, with a win over Everton and hard-fought draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth. Their most recent outing was another intriguing 2-2 draw with the Cherries, in which their attacking intent was clear but defensive blunders cost them. Leeds will seek to keep their unbeaten home record intact and turn Elland Road into a fortress as they adjust to life in the top division.
Tottenham, under Thomas Frank, are enjoying a competitive start across competitions. They come into this fixture after a 2-2 draw away at Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League, showing both their attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities. Spurs have lost just once in the league so far – against Bournemouth – and are shaping up to be one of the tougher sides to break down compared to the Ange era. The question remains whether they can translate their European form into a strong away performance and become the first team this season to take all three points at Elland Road.
Leeds vs Tottenham – Odds Analysis
The odds stand at Leeds (2.88), Tottenham (2.62), and Draw (3.60), which clearly shows how finely balanced this contest is. Bookmakers are not giving either side a heavy edge, reflecting the unpredictability of the matchup. Leeds have the advantage of playing at home, where they are still unbeaten, and also benefit from having more rest and preparation time. Tottenham, meanwhile, come into this game after their Champions League trip to Norway, which could impact fatigue and player sharpness. Given this setup, it’s difficult to confidently back a home or away win – a closely fought draw cannot be ruled out.
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Leeds have scored just 6 goals and conceded 9 so far, but what stands out is their ability to grind out results at home, with 2 clean sheets at Elland Road – against Everton and Newcastle. That defensive stability can frustrate opponents, but they will be tested heavily against Spurs’ sharp attack. Tottenham, under Thomas Frank, have already scored 11 goals and conceded only 4, keeping two impressive away clean sheets – at Man City and West Ham.
Historically, though, the trend leans heavily towards goals when these two sides meet. All of the last 6 head-to-head matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and not a single one ended goalless. This pattern, combined with Spurs’ attacking edge and Leeds’ potential to score at home, points strongly towards a goal-heavy fixture.
Over 2.5 goals has a 90% probability here, and even Over 1.5 goals feels almost guaranteed based on form and H2H stats.
Anytime Goalscorer
For Leeds, Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains the standout option on paper, especially since he was tipped to score earlier (vs Wolves). But the issue is Leeds’ goals are too spread out across their squad — with different players chipping in here and there rather than one consistent scorer. That makes backing a Leeds goalscorer very unpredictable.
For Tottenham, Richarlison is currently their top scorer with 3 goals in 6 appearances, followed by Brennan Johnson (2 goals). Mohammed Kudus and Palhinha have also been involved, but again, Spurs’ goals are coming from multiple attacking options rather than just one man leading the line.
Because of this unpredictability, this market looks high-risk. The safer approach is to avoid it — unless you’re already in profit from other markets and want to take a calculated gamble. If so, the names worth shortlisting would be:
- Richarlison (Spurs’ most consistent threat so far)
- Brennan Johnson (developing form, good value)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds’ main striker, potential in home fixtures)
- Mohammed Kudus (wild card pick if he starts wide for Spurs)
BTTS – Both Team to Score
The odds (Yes – 1.77 | No – 2.24) already suggest bookmakers are leaning slightly toward both sides finding the net. Looking at the previous six head-to-head meetings, every single one of them saw both teams score and also went over 2.5 goals. That trend strongly supports BTTS here.
From a current form perspective:
- Leeds – unbeaten at home, with two clean sheets, but they’ve also shown they can be broken down if the opponent presses hard. Their attacking play under Daniel Farke is not free-scoring but effective enough to nick goals, especially with Calvert-Lewin up front.
- Tottenham – scoring in almost every game under Thomas Frank (11 goals in 6 PL matches), but they’re not completely watertight at the back, especially when returning from a midweek European fixture.
Combining H2H data and present form, BTTS looks very probable here, making it a strong betting angle — but the risk remains if Leeds repeat one of their tighter defensive performances at Elland Road.
My view: BTTS – Yes has high probability, but it’s better to wait in-play for odds to rise slightly if the game starts cautiously.
Leeds vs Tottenham Head-to-Head Facts
- They’ve faced each other 19 direct matches in all competitions. FC Tables+1
- Tottenham have won 10, Leeds 7, and there have been 2 draws in those 19. FC Tables+1
- Across those meetings, Over 1.5 goals occurred in 89.47% of matches, and Over 2.5 goals in about 84.21%. FC Tables
- Average goals per match (both sides combined) in those direct games is high: approx 3.53 goals per match. beta.fctables.com+1
- At Elland Road, Leeds have won 7 times vs Spurs; Spurs have won fewer (around 5) and there have been a couple of draws. AiScore+2AiScore+2
- At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium / Spurs home, Spurs have the better record — more wins than Leeds, and fewer draws. AiScore+2AiScore+2
Leeds vs Tottenham Historic Matches & Unusual Events
Tottenham 4-3 Leeds (Nov 12, 2022)
One of the most dramatic Premier League matches between them. Spurs came from behind several times to eventually beat Leeds 4-3 in a wild, end-to-end game. Lots of goals, big swings, and an atmosphere of tension. AiScore+1
Leeds 0-4 Tottenham (Feb 26, 2022)
Spurs dominated this game at Elland Road, blowing Leeds away early and showing that when everything clicks, Spurs can score with high efficiency. mehstg.co.uk+1
Leeds 3-1 Tottenham (May 8, 2021)
A classic at Elland Road where Leeds turned the game around. They showed big resilience – this match showed Leeds at their best in front of home fans, scoring two goals and managing to contain Spurs’ attack for large portions. mehstg.co.uk+1
In August 1992, Leeds thumped Tottenham 5-0 at Elland Road. That’s one of Leeds’ biggest wins ever in the fixture. eplfixturestoday.com+1
During 2001-2003 period, there were several tight, high-intensity matches:
- Spurs beat Leeds 2-0 at home on 24 Nov 2002. mehstg.com+2My Football Facts+2
- Leeds responded with a 2-1 win at home vs Spurs on 23 Aug 2003. mehstg.com+1
- Tottenham also had a 4-3 thriller away at Leeds in November 2022, a wild game with many lead changes. AiScore+2AiScore+2
Probability Table
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 82% |
| BTTS – Yes | 87% |
My Picks
1. Over 1.5 Goals (95% confidence – safest option)
2. Over 2.5 Goals (82% confidence – strong probability)
3. BTTS: Yes (87% confidence – high chance both sides score)
Final Verdict
Leeds vs Tottenham promises to be an entertaining clash at Elland Road with both sides showing attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities. Leeds have been strong at home, yet their backline has still been tested, while Spurs are coming in with momentum and a proven ability to score away from home. Historically, meetings between these two sides have been goal-heavy, with none of the last six games finishing goalless and all going over 2.5 goals. Based on form and head-to-head patterns, the safest bet in this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals (95% confidence), with a strong lean towards Over 2.5 Goals (82% confidence) given both sides’ attacking numbers. On top of that, the BTTS market looks very solid (87% confidence) as both teams are likely to find the net. This fixture has all the ingredients of a high-scoring affair where both sides will push to make their mark.
Leeds vs Tottenham Injury Updates
- Leeds United
- Lucas Perri – Muscle injury (expected return early October 2025)
- Wilfried Gnonto – Calf injury (expected return early October 2025)
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Cristian Romero – Physical discomfort (expected return in a few days)
- Kota Takai – Foot injury (out until mid-October 2025)
- Radu Drăgușin – Cruciate ligament injury (out until mid-October 2025)
- Dejan Kulusevski – Knee injury (expected return early November 2025)
- James Maddison – Cruciate ligament injury (out until mid-February 2026)
- Yves Bissouma – Knock (expected return early October 2025)
- Dominic Solanke – Ankle injury (out until mid-October 2025)
- Randal Kolo Muani – Leg injury (doubtful)
Tottenham clearly have more significant injuries, especially Maddison and Kulusevski, which weakens their creativity and attack. Leeds, on the other hand, only miss two players, with Gnonto’s absence being the bigger concern.
