West Ham finally earned their first win under new boss Nuno Espírito Santo, defeating Eddie Howe’s Newcastle last Sunday — a huge morale boost after a poor start to the season. They’ll now host Burnley, a team that continues to struggle under pressure despite flashes of competitiveness.
Burnley, coming off a 0-2 home loss to league leaders Arsenal, sit only slightly above West Ham with 10 points, while the Hammers have 7 points, both hovering dangerously near the relegation zone. The goal difference tells the story — West Ham at -11 and Burnley at -7 — both sides leaking goals too easily.
For West Ham to climb out of the drop zone, they’ll need not just a win but a 3-goal margin victory with a clean sheet, something that seems unlikely given their recent defensive record. Still, with renewed confidence after their win and home advantage, this match could be a turning point — either a surge out of danger or a setback deeper into trouble.
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| West Ham | 7 |
| Burnley | 10 |
Odds Analysis
The bookmakers have clearly favoured West Ham to take all three points at home, offering short odds for a Hammers win. This reflects both their improved confidence after the recent victory and Burnley’s ongoing struggles away from home.
However, history warns caution — the last meeting between these two sides at the London Stadium ended 2-2 in 2024, a result that contributed to Burnley’s relegation that season. That draw showed Burnley’s ability to fight even in difficult fixtures.
Given current form and motivation under new manager, West Ham are expected to dominate, but defensive lapses remain a concern — making a draw or narrow win possible outcomes.
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| West Ham | 2.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| Burnley | 4.10 |
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, only one match ended goalless, which was at Turf Moor in 2021 — making this fixture historically one that produces goals.
This season, however, both West Ham and Burnley have struggled in front of goal, scoring fewer than the league average while conceding heavily. Despite that, the defensive instability on both ends suggests there’s still a strong chance for goals in this matchup.
| Market | Probability / Verdict |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | ✅ 99% — Almost certain |
| Over 1.5 Goals | ✅ 90% — Safest pick |
| Over 2.5 Goals | ⚠️ 70% — Likely but not guaranteed |
| Over 3.5 Goals | ⚠️ 55% — Possible if game turns open or one side collapses defensively |
📊 Verdict: This fixture has a strong history of goals — only one goalless game in 20 meetings. Over 1.5 goals remains the safest bet, but if both sides go aggressive early, Over 3.5 goals could also hit.
Anytime Goalscorer
Both Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá have been pivotal for West Ham this season — each contributing 3 goals with an average match rating of 7.1. They remain the most consistent attacking threats, especially Bowen, who tends to perform better in home fixtures. Paquetá’s creativity and involvement also boost his scoring chances.
For Burnley, Jaidon Anthony stands out as the top scorer with 4 goals, though he’s currently experiencing a dry spell — failing to score in the last four matches. His last goal came in a tough 1-5 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad. Despite that, he remains Burnley’s most direct attacking outlet and a potential danger if given space on the counter.
| Player | G/A Probability |
|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen | 74% |
| Lucas Paquetá | 68% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 53% |
📊 Verdict: Bowen looks the most reliable pick for a goal contribution, followed by Paquetá’s creative influence. Jaidon Anthony could be a wildcard option, especially if Burnley push forward late in the match.
BTTS
The BTTS odds are finely balanced — Yes: 1.97 | No: 2.10, reflecting the inconsistency of both sides this season. West Ham’s recent performances show a lack of attacking sharpness, having failed to score in two 0-2 defeats, though they found rhythm in their last outing under new manager Nuno. Burnley, on the other hand, are equally unpredictable — they lost 0-2 at home to Arsenal but bounced back with a 2-0 win against Leeds.
This makes the BTTS market uncertain, as both teams have shown moments of clean sheets and goalless struggles. Historically, however, this fixture tends to produce goals, so an edge slightly leans towards “Yes”, but it’s far from a safe bet.
| BTTS | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.97 |
| No | 2.10 |
Crazy Historical Stats
Between 1964 and 1966, West Ham scored 10 consecutive goals against Burnley, each by a different player whose surname began with the letter ‘B’. (whufc.com)
West Ham’s biggest-ever win over Burnley was a 5-0 triumph on 26 August 1968, thanks to braces from Geoff Hurst and Trevor Brooking plus a goal from Martin Peters. (whufc.com)
In their most recent friendly league style stats, these sides have averaged around 2.81 goals per match in head-to-head games. (fctables.com)
Out of 24 recent league meetings, both teams scored (BTTS) in 14 of them, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 13 of them. (predictz.com)
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 99% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 55% |
| West Ham to Win | 62% |
| BTTS – Yes | 60% |
| West Ham to Score | 84% |
| Burnley to Score | 52% |
My Picks
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Over/Under Goals | Over 1.5 Goals ✅ |
| Match Result | West Ham Win ⚒️ |
| BTTS | Yes ⚽ |
Final Verdict
West Ham look more confident under Nuno after that morale-boosting win against Newcastle, and facing a Burnley side struggling to find rhythm away from home gives them the upper hand. With Bowen and Paquetá both in solid attacking form, the Hammers should be able to find the net more than once. Burnley, however, have shown fight and could still trouble the defense — making BTTS a fair possibility.
Prediction: West Ham to win, Over 1.5 Goals (safe pick), BTTS Yes (value pick).
Scoreline Prediction: 2–1 West Ham.
