Everton return home to the Hill Dickinson Stadium after a 1-1 draw away at the Stadium of Light. Fulham, on the other hand, travel after a commanding 3-0 win over Wolves at Craven Cottage.
When these two sides last met in May 2025, Everton secured a solid 3-1 away win at Craven Cottage, displaying one of their best away performances of the season. However, the last time they met at Goodison Park, it ended 1-1, a tight and physical contest.
Now, at Everton’s new home ground, the atmosphere and pressure could tilt slightly in favor of the Toffees — but Fulham’s recent form and attacking variety mean this fixture could go either way. The question remains: will Everton mark their home win at Hill Dickinson Stadium, or will Fulham spoil the Toffees’ home crowd?
Odds Analysis
The odds stand at Everton (2.26), Fulham (3.60), and Draw (3.45) — showing only a slight edge toward Everton, mainly due to their home advantage. However, this fixture looks fairly balanced, as both sides have shown inconsistency this season.
Fulham’s biggest drawback is their poor away record, having failed to win any away fixture so far this season. Meanwhile, Everton have shown decent home form — winning most of their matches and only suffering one defeat at home (0-3 vs Spurs) out of five played.
Given the odds and current form, this matchup leans toward a tight game, with the draw or a narrow Everton win being the most likely outcomes.
Everton have the home edge and slightly higher implied win probability.
A draw remains a strong possibility based on both teams’ defensive stats and historical H2H records.
Fulham’s low away win probability reflects their struggles outside Craven Cottage.
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Everton to Win | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.45 |
| Fulham to Win | 3.60 |
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Across the last 20 meetings between Everton and Fulham, goal patterns have varied significantly — with 3 games ending goalless and two matches finishing 1-0 (one win each). However, most of the remaining encounters have gone over 2.5 goals, showing both sides’ attacking intent when they meet. Given Fulham’s inconsistent defence and Everton’s occasional goal bursts at home, the over/under market is tricky for this fixture — unpredictable.
| Market | Historical Trend |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 84% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% |
| 0-0 Result | 15% |
Anytime Goalscorer
Everton’s attacking output this season has revolved around Iliman Ndiaye, who leads their scoring charts with 4 goals, though his participation in this game is uncertain after picking up an injury against Sunderland. Jack Grealish has been Everton’s creative engine — boasting a 7.61 average rating and 4 assists, making him a strong candidate for a goal contribution even if he doesn’t score himself. On the other hand, Fulham’s attack has been more evenly spread, with Harry Wilson and Ryan Sessegnon scoring 2 goals each, while Alex Iwobi continues to create chances with 2 assists so far.
Given Ndiaye’s injury doubt and Fulham’s shared scoring responsibilities, this market is risky to call — but Grealish (Everton) appear the most reliable name for a goal or assist.
| Player | Goal/Assist Probability |
|---|---|
| Jack Grealish | 74% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 65% (if starts) |
| Harry Wilson | 61% |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 58% |
| Alex Iwobi | 54% |
BTTS
The BTTS market looks evenly balanced in this fixture, with Yes at 1.94 and No at 1.99, suggesting that bookmakers are uncertain about either side’s scoring consistency. Historically, the meetings between Everton and Fulham have swung both ways — some matches ending goalless, others with multiple goals — making this market highly unpredictable. Everton’s new stadium factor might inspire goals, but Fulham’s away struggles balance that out, leaving no clear trend for or against both teams scoring.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| BTTS – Yes | 1.94 |
| BTTS – No | 1.99 |
Crazy Historical Stats
In May 1968, Everton crushed Fulham 5–1 at Goodison Park — a match that contributed heavily to Fulham’s relegation from Division One. sportsmole.co.uk+1
In the modern era, a dramatic League Cup tie on 19 Dec 2023 saw Fulham beat Everton 7–6 on penalties after a 1–1 draw — a wild shoot-out underlining the unpredictable nature of this matchup. sportsmole.co.uk
On 26 Oct 2024 Everton rescued a late equaliser at home, drawing 1–1 with Fulham after substitute Beto scored deep into injury time, despite Fulham dominating for long spells. The Guardian
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Everton to Win | 45% |
| Match to be Drawn | 30% |
| Fulham to Win | 25% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 98% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% |
| BTTS – Yes | 52% |
| Everton to Score | 78% |
| Fulham to Score | 55% |
| Jack Grealish – Goal or Assist | 74% |
| Iliman Ndiaye – Goal or Assist (if starts) | 65% |
| Harry Wilson – Goal or Assist | 61% |
My Picks
| Pick | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Full-time Result | Draw or Everton Win |
| Over/Under Goals | Over 1.5 Goals (Possible) |
| BTTS | Unpredictable / Skip Market |
Final Verdict
Final Verdict:
Everton’s strong home form at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium gives them a slight edge in this tie, especially against a Fulham side that hasn’t yet found an away win this season. Despite some inconsistency in both teams’ attacking output, Everton’s resilience and home advantage make them more likely to avoid defeat. Fulham’s recent 3-0 win over Wolves shows they can threaten on the counter, but given Everton’s organized midfield and physical defense, a draw or narrow Everton win looks the most probable outcome.
