Coming off a dominant 4-0 Champions League victory against FC København, Tottenham enter this fixture full of momentum, even though Brennan Johnson’s red card saw them finish with 10 men. Despite the disadvantage, Spurs managed to score two more goals, showcasing their attacking depth and composure.
However, in the Premier League, Spurs are looking to bounce back after a narrow 0-1 loss to Chelsea. Meanwhile, Manchester United are struggling for consistency — their recent 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest exposed defensive lapses despite a strong attacking display.
Historically, Tottenham have had the upper hand in recent meetings, most notably defeating United 1-0 in the UEFA Europa League final to lift the trophy — a result that still lingers in United fans’ memories.
As Spurs prepare to host United at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the big question remains:
Will Manchester United exact revenge and take all three points, or will Tottenham continue their dominance on home soil?
Odds Analysis
The bookmakers’ odds are quite balanced, showing no clear favorite between the two sides. While Manchester United are traditionally strong, recent history strongly favors Tottenham — in the last five head-to-head meetings, United have failed to win even once, managing only a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford back in January 2014, with Spurs winning the other four fixtures convincingly.
Given the even odds and contrasting forms of both sides, this market is too unpredictable to call confidently — skipping this market might be the safest approach for bettors.
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spurs Win | 2.94 |
| Draw | 3.7 |
| Man United Win | 2.54 |
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Both Tottenham and Manchester United have been productive going forward this season, scoring 17 goals each in the league. However, Spurs hold a defensive edge, conceding only 8 goals compared to United’s 16 — a sign of better balance and structure under Thomas Frank.
Looking at their last 10 head-to-head meetings, every single match has produced goals, proving this fixture rarely stays quiet. The last two matches saw Spurs win with tight 1-0 margins, while two games went over 1.5 goals, and a remarkable six games exceeded over 2.5 goals.
This trend strongly suggests that goals are expected again, with over 1.5 goals being the safest option and over 2.5 goals a very likely outcome given the attacking quality of both sides.
✅ Interpretation:
Over 1.5 goals is the safest option.
Over 2.5 is highly probable, considering both sides’ attacking records.
| Over Goals Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 94% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 43% |
Anytime Goalscorer
For Tottenham, surprisingly centre-back Micky van de Ven and forward Richarlison both lead the scoring charts with 3 goals each, showing how evenly the goals have been distributed across the squad. Others like Brennan Johnson and Palhinha have contributed with one or two strikes each.
For Manchester United, Bryan Mbeumo stands out as the top scorer with 4 goals, followed by Casemiro (3) and new striker Benjamin Šeško (2). Both teams have a balanced attack, making it difficult to pick a clear anytime goalscorer, though Mbeumo and Richarlison remain the most likely candidates to be directly involved in a goal.
| Player | G/A Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo | 69% |
| Richarlison | 63% |
| Benjamin Šeško | 58% |
BTTS
The BTTS odds are Yes – 1.59 and No – 2.62, clearly favoring both teams to score. This is understandable given the attacking profiles of both Tottenham and Manchester United — each side has scored 17 goals so far in the league.
With both clubs sitting on equal points and aiming to break into the top four, this fixture is expected to be a high-intensity, end-to-end battle. Both teams possess enough firepower to find the net, and given the recent defensive records, a BTTS outcome looks highly probable.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| BTTS – Yes | 1.59 |
| BTTS – No | 2.62 |
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 78% |
| No | 22% |
Crazy Historical Stats
On 4 October 2020, Tottenham thrashed Manchester United 6-1 at Old Trafford, when United were down to 10 men after a 28th-minute red card for Anthony Martial — it remains one of United’s worst home defeats. Planet Football+1
In the 2024/25 season finale of the UEFA Europa League Final, Tottenham beat United 1-0 in Bilbao to lift a major European trophy after a 17-year drought — a landmark moment in their rivalry. Reuters+1
On 4 May 1987, Tottenham beat Manchester United 4-0 in a League Division One fixture — one of their biggest margins of victory in the rivalry. mehstg.co.uk+1
On 6 September 1980, the game ended in a 0-0 draw at White Hart Lane, highlighting how even the big clashes could be tight and goalless. My Football Facts
Back on 23 March 1974, Manchester United lost at home to Tottenham 0-1, showing that Spurs had away victories over United even decades ago. 11v11+1
Probability Table
| Event / Pick | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 87% |
| BTTS — Yes | 78% |
| Both (Over 1.5 and BTTS Yes) | 72% |
My Picks
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Match Goals | Over 1.5 (if 0-0 HT) |
| BTTS | Yes |
Final Verdict
Both teams come into this fixture with strong attacking intent but defensive inconsistencies. Historically, Spurs have dominated recent meetings, while United struggle to close games despite scoring regularly. With both sides tied on 17 points, expect a fast-paced, open match as they push for a top-four position.
If the match remains 0–0 at halftime, it’s highly likely that the second half will open up — Over 1.5 Goals (Second Half) becomes a smart, value pick. Both teams have averaged strong second-half xG this season and tend to concede when chasing.
The BTTS – Yes market also looks solid given both clubs’ attacking stats and defensive lapses. Historically, this fixture produces goals more often than not, especially in the final 45 minutes.
