Burnley, hovering just above the relegation zone, welcome Chelsea to Turf Moor in the first clash of Gameweek 12 after the international break. The Clarets are still searching for stability after a frustrating 3–2 loss to West Ham at the London Stadium. Despite flashes of attacking threat, their defense continues to leak goals — a major concern against a confident Chelsea side.
Chelsea arrive on the back of a dominant 3–0 home win against Wolves, showing solid improvement in both finishing and defensive organization.
When these sides last met in March 2024, it ended 2–2 at Stamford Bridge, with Palmer netting twice and Burnley showing grit to claw back. Historically, Chelsea have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture — unbeaten in their last six meetings — but Turf Moor can still throw surprises, especially with Burnley desperate for points.
With Chelsea sitting in top four and Burnley fighting for survival, expect an open but disciplined game where both sides will look to exploit transitions. The Blues remain favorites, yet a stubborn Burnley could make them work hard for every inch.
Odds Analysis
The odds clearly favor Chelsea, reflecting their recent form and overall superiority in quality and consistency. Historically, this fixture has heavily leaned toward the Blues — out of the last 16 meetings, Chelsea have won 10 times, drawn 5, and Burnley’s only victory came way back in 2017 at Stamford Bridge, a chaotic 3–2 result where Chelsea were reduced to nine men after Gary Cahill and Cesc Fàbregas were sent off.
Looking at current form, Burnley’s inconsistency continues — 3 losses and 2 wins in their last five matches, with victories coming against Leeds (home) and Wolves (away), both struggling sides. Meanwhile, Chelsea have built momentum, losing only once in their last five (a shock home defeat to Sunderland) while winning four convincingly, including a 3–0 against Wolves and a composed away win at Tottenham.
The odds align with these patterns — Chelsea at 1.58 are clear favorites and could control the game comfortably if they maintain their recent tempo. Burnley may rely on counter-attacks and set-pieces, but given the form gap and historical dominance, an upset looks highly unlikely.
| Market | Odds | (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 6.40 | 15.6% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 22.7% |
| Chelsea | 1.58 | 63.3% |
Chances of Winning %
Chelsea Win probability sits comfortably above 60%, reflecting both their form and head-to-head strength.
Draw remains a moderate outcome, especially if Burnley frustrates Chelsea early on.
Burnley Win is statistically the least likely, needing set-piece luck or defensive errors.
Over/Under Goals
| Market | Odds | (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 1.06 | 94% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 1.28 | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.72 | 58% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 2.45 | 40% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | 47% |
Anytime Goalscorer
| Player | Avg. Rating | G/A (%) |
|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | 7.1 | 71% |
| Pedro Neto | 6.3 | 63% |
| Garnacho | 6.6 | 66% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 6.2 | 62% |
BTTS
- Yes: 1.75
- No: 1.80
Given Burnley’s home record, this market leans slightly toward BTTS – Yes. Turf Moor has seen Burnley find the net in most games — the only exceptions being against top defensive sides Arsenal and Liverpool. Chelsea, meanwhile, have conceded in 7 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions, though they often respond with goals of their own.
Despite Chelsea’s attacking momentum, their defense has shown lapses on counters — something Burnley can exploit at home.
🧩 Verdict:
➡️ BTTS – Yes (1.75) looks like a realistic outcome considering both teams’ scoring tendencies and Burnley’s home advantage.
| Outcome | Odds | (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 | 57% |
| No | 1.80 | 55% |
Crazy Historical Stats
Strong Away Record for Chelsea at Turf Moor
Chelsea have been unbeaten at Burnley’s home ground for decades in league football. From the club’s official stats, Chelsea are “unbeaten at Turf Moor since losing 0–3 in April 1983 in the Second Division.” Chelsea FC+1
- That means for over 40 years, Burnley haven’t beaten Chelsea in a league match at home.
- Significantly tilts historical advantage toward Chelsea, especially for away fixtures.
Dominance in Head-to-Head
In their recent head-to-head sample (18 matches from modern era) Burnley have won just 1, Chelsea have won 12, and there have been 5 draws. AiScore+1
- Burnley’s winning percentage in this fixture is ~5% in that sample → very telling.
- When Chelsea have won, they usually score multiple goals. For example: Burnley 0-4 Chelsea in March 2022. Reddit
High Goals-Per-Match Figures
- According to H2H data: the average goals scored in their meetings is around 3.37 goals per match for the sample given. FC Tables+1
- For all 18 matches cited: Over 1.5 goals occurred in 100% of those games. Over 2.5 goals in ~74%. FC Tables+1
- This supports your expectation of at least 2 goals, possibly 3+, in their upcoming fixture.
Big Margins and Surprise Twists
- Among the most one-sided wins: Chelsea’s 6-1 victory at Burnley back in 1957-58 (though pre-Premier League era) and other high-scoring matches. Chelsea FC+1
- A dramatic recent event: In March 2024 at Stamford Bridge, Burnley (playing with 10 men after a red card) twice equalised and forced a 2-2 draw despite being underdogs. Reuters
- These moments show the fixture isn’t always predictable, despite statistical dominance.
Burnley’s Struggles vs ‘Big Six’ Clubs at Home
- Burnley’s record at home versus top-tier opposition is very poor: they’ve only beaten a “big six” club at home once in recent years (e.g., vs Tottenham in Feb 2019) according to the club’s official stats. Chelsea FC
- This underlines the difficulty of them overcoming Chelsea at Turf Moor in the current cycle.
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 94 % |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78 % |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58 % |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 40 % |
| BTTS — Yes | 57 % |
| BTTS — No | 43 % |
| João Pedro (G/A) | 71 % |
| Garnacho (G/A) | 66 % |
| Pedro Neto (G/A) | 63 % |
| Jaidon Anthony (G/A) | 62 % |
| Chelsea to Win | 63 % |
| Burnley to Win | 16 % |
| Draw | 21 % |
My Picks
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Result | Chelsea Win or Draw |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| BTTS (Both Teams to Score) | Yes |
| João Pedro (G/A) | Yes |
| Garnacho (G/A) | Yes |
| Jaidon Anthony (G/A) | Yes |
Final Verdict
This fixture looks set to deliver goals and attacking football from both ends. Chelsea, despite a few injury concerns, come in with strong momentum and a high goal-scoring rhythm, while Burnley’s home performances have shown fight, especially against mid-table opponents. Given Chelsea’s superior form, depth, and tactical discipline, they are clear favourites to take all three points — though Burnley are capable of finding the net with players like Jaidon Anthony pushing forward.
