After a dramatic 2-2 draw at the Vitality against West Ham, Bournemouth now travel to the Stadium of Light, one of the toughest grounds to visit this season.
The last time Sunderland hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League was back in 2017, a campaign that ended in relegation for the Black Cats and the eventual sacking of then-manager David Moyes. Much has changed since then — Sunderland are back in the top flight and performing impressively under their new setup.
Current Standings & Form
- Sunderland: 7th place – 19 points
- Bournemouth: 8th place – 19 points (same points, separated on goal difference)
Home vs Away Stats
Sunderland at home (6 matches):
- 3 wins
- 3 draws
- 0 defeats
- One of the few unbeaten home teams left in the league.
Bournemouth away (6 matches):
- 1 win
- 2 draws
- 3 losses
The contrast is huge:
🔹 Sunderland do not lose at home
🔹 Bournemouth struggle away from home
The Big Question
Will Sunderland’s fortress remain intact, or can Bournemouth break their pattern of dropping points on the road and hand the Black Cats their first home defeat?
Odds Analysis
- Sunderland – 3.15
- Bournemouth – 2.46
- Draw – 3.50
Interpretation:
- The market slightly leans toward Bournemouth, mainly due to better attacking numbers and recent Premier League experience — but the bookmakers are not fully trusting them because their away form is shaky.
- Sunderland’s 3.15 is generous, but that reflects their inconsistency in finishing chances and their difficulty breaking compact defensive teams.
- Odds around 3.50 for a draw show that bookmakers also expect a close, balanced contest — not a one-sided fixture.
Honestly? The odds don’t properly respect Sunderland’s unbeaten home form. Bournemouth being favourites away from home is a bit questionable.
Last 4 Head-to-Head Scores
- Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland
Very mixed record — no clear dominance. The fixtures usually stay tight and low-scoring.
Form Guide (Last 5 Matches)
Sunderland
- ❌ Lost 1–0 vs Fulham (A)
- 🤝 Drew 2–2 vs Arsenal (H)
- 🤝 Drew 1–1 vs Everton (H)
- ✅ Won 1–2 vs Chelsea (A)
- ✅ Won 2–0 vs Wolves (H)
Bournemouth
- 🤝 Drew 2–2 vs West Ham (H)
- ❌ Lost 4–0 vs Aston Villa (A)
- ❌ Lost 3–1 vs Man City (A)
- ✅ Won 2–0 vs Nottingham Forest (H)
- 🤝 Drew 3–3 vs Crystal Palace (A)
Fun Fact
Both teams have played 12 matches this season with identical stats:
- 5 wins
- 4 draws
- 3 losses
They couldn’t be more level — the table doesn’t lie.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Sunderland
- Total goals scored: 14
- Total conceded: 11
- Home goals:
- Scored: 11
- Conceded: 5
- Sunderland average at home: 2.67 goals per match
Bournemouth
- Total goals scored: 19
- Total conceded: 20
- Away goals:
- Scored: 9
- Conceded: 16
- Bournemouth away average: 4.17 goals per match
Last 4 Head-to-Head Goal Totals
- Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth → 1 goal
- Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland → 3 goals
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth → 2 goals
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland → 2 goals
Total goals in last 4 H2H: 8 goals
Average: 2.0 goals per match
These H2Hs tend to stay tight and low scoring, but this season’s versions of both teams are far more open — especially Bournemouth.
| Market + Probability | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals – 95% | Very High |
| Over 1.5 goals – 78% | High |
| Over 2.5 goals – 60% | Medium |
| Over 3.5 goals – 35% | Low |
| Under 2.5 goals – 40% | Medium-Low |
| Under 1.5 goals – 22% | Low |
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G + A) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wilson Isidor – 4G | 55% |
| Granit Xhaka – 1G / 3A | 45% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi – 4G | 48% |
| Marcus Tavernier – 3G / 1A | 52% |
| Antoine Semenyo – 6G / 3A (Doubtful/Injured) | 40% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS Odds: Yes 1.78 | No 2.18
Sunderland Cleansheets:
- 4 CS in 12 (33%)
- 2 CS in 6 home (33%)
Bournemouth Cleansheets:
- 4 CS in 12 (33%)
- 1 CS in 6 away (17%)
Head-to-head recent (last 4):
1–0, 1–2, 1–1, 2–0 →
Both teams scored in 1/4: 25%
BTTS Table (Market + Probability Combined)
| Market + Probability |
|---|
| BTTS Yes – 57% |
| BTTS No – 43% |
How the numbers were derived:
- League cleansheet rates for both teams suggest ~65–70% chance of at least one team conceding.
- Head-to-head history actually leans under, but the sample is too small and outdated (2017–2023).
- Sunderland score frequently at home (11 scored, 5 conceded).
- Bournemouth concede heavily away (16 conceded in 6).
→ BTTS Yes becomes the logical favourite.
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| Yes |
Final Verdict
This fixture has all the signs of being open and competitive, with both Sunderland and Bournemouth showing enough attacking consistency and defensive gaps to expect goals at both ends. Sunderland’s unbeaten home run and Bournemouth’s unstable away form point toward a match where momentum swings are likely. With both sides averaging decent scoring numbers and their clean-sheet records remaining low, at least two goals feel very realistic. Given the patterns in recent form and head-to-head history, Over 1.5 Goals and BTTS Yes stand out as the strongest, safest angles for this matchup.
