Everton return home after a gritty 0–1 win at Old Trafford, a match filled with chaos early on. A heated argument between Michael Keane and Idrissa Gueye resulted in the Senegal midfielder being sent off in the 13th minute by refree Tony Harrington. Even with ten men, Everton held their shape, and a superb strike from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall in the 29th minute earned them three points. Pickford was solid, and Everton showed the kind of defensive commitment David Moyes demands.
Newcastle, on the other hand, are nowhere near the sharpness they displayed last season. They enter this fixture after a 2–1 loss to Marseille at the Orange Vélodrome in the Champions League. Harvey Barnes scored early in the 6th minute, but an Aubameyang brace turned the game around.
In the Premier League table, Everton sit 11th, while Newcastle are 14th, struggling for rhythm and consistency with injuries and tactical instability compared to last season’s top-four push.
Last season’s head-to-heads were unexpectedly tight and low-scoring:
- At Goodison Park → 0–0 draw (Doucouré’s 29’ goal ruled offside by VAR, and Pickford saved Anthony Gordon’s penalty).
- At St James’ Park → 0–1 Everton win, with Carlos Alcaraz scoring the only goal in the 65th minute.
Now, they meet at Everton’s new home, the Hill Dickinson Stadium. The big question is:
Will this be another cagey, low-scoring battle like last season, or can Everton push for another upset against a Newcastle side still searching for their identity?
Odds Analysis
Everton: 2.88
Newcastle: 2.72
Draw: 3.40
The market is balanced, showing no clear favourite. That usually means the bookmakers also see this fixture as messy and unpredictable — in line with last season’s tight matchups.
If anything, the odds slightly lean toward Everton being stronger at home and Newcastle being untrustworthy away, but nothing decisive.
Premier League Form (Last 5)
Everton
- W 0-1 vs Man United (A)
- W 2-0 vs Fulham (H)
- D 1-1 vs Sunderland (A)
- L 0-3 vs Spurs (H)
- L 2-0 vs Man City (A)
Comment: Their form is mixed, but the important part is:
✔ Improving performances
✔ Strong home form
✔ Big away win at Old Trafford (even with 10 men)
Newcastle
- W 2-1 vs Man City (H)
- L 3-1 Brentford (A)
- L 3-1 West Ham (A)
- W 2-1 Fulham (H)
- L 2-1 Brighton (A)
Comment: Newcastle are:
✘ Extremely poor away from home
✘ Conceding 2+ goals regularly
✘ Too dependent on home advantage
Their away form is the biggest red flag.
Head-to-Head (Last 5)
- Newcastle 0-1 Everton
- Everton 0-0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1-1 Everton
- Everton 3-0 Newcastle
- Everton 1-4 Newcastle
Observation:
Most of these matches were tight and low scoring, except one 4–1 anomaly.
Historically, this fixture at Everton tends to be cagey, physical, and rarely high scoring.
Home vs Away (This Season)
Everton Home Stats
6 matches:
- 3 Wins
- 2 Draws
- 1 Loss (only to Spurs)
Newcastle Away Stats
6 matches:
- 0 Wins
- 3 Draws
- 3 Losses
Newcastle haven’t won away all season, and conceding frequently.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Everton – Season Stats
- 12 matches: Scored 13, conceded 13
- Average total goals per match: 2.16
- Home (6 matches): Scored 7, conceded 5
- Home average total goals: 2.00
Everton at home are disciplined, compact, and rarely involved in big scorelines.
Newcastle – Season Stats
- Total: Scored 13, conceded 15
- Average total goals per match: 2.33
- Away (6 matches): Scored 3, conceded 8
- Away average total goals: 1.83
Newcastle away are not just poor — they are toothless.
Only 3 away goals all season is a serious concern for backing Overs.
Head-to-Head (last 5 meetings)
- Newcastle 0-1 Everton
- Everton 0-0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1-1 Everton
- Everton 3-0 Newcastle
- Everton 1-4 Newcastle
4 out of 5 of these were Under 2.5 goals, excluding one outlier (1–4).
Overall Interpretation
Both teams’ current stats + H2H + style → all pointing toward:
A cagey, physical, low-scoring match if they start aggressively from minute one. Everton’s new home stadium atmosphere + Newcastle’s away struggles = high chance of slow tempo, fouls, long balls, and restricted space. Newcastle’s only reliable goal threat away from home comes from rare transitions or set pieces. Everton at home rarely open up unless they score first.
Expected Goal Trend
- Under 2.5 goals has stronger probability than Over 2.5
- BTTS is unreliable because Newcastle barely score away
- If early fouls + physical battles start, game becomes locked and ugly → Under 1.5 even becomes live
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player | Goal or Assisst Probability |
|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye | 58% |
| Nick Woltemade | 36% |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 18% |
| Harvey Barnes | 22% |
| Bruno Guimarães | 12% |
| Jack Grealish | 42% |
BTTS
- Yes – 1.83
- No – 2.16
The market is slightly leaning YES, but nowhere near confident — which fits the matchup.
Clean Sheet Records
Everton
- 4 clean sheets in 12 games → 33% clean sheet rate
- Home: 3 clean sheets in 6 → 50% home clean sheet rate
Everton at home are surprisingly solid defensively.
Newcastle
- 5 clean sheets in 12 games → 41% clean sheet rate
- Away: 3 clean sheets in 6 → 50% away clean sheet rate
Despite poor away results, their defensive away record is still respectable.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Matches)
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton
- Everton 0–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Everton
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle
- Everton 1–4 Newcastle
Interpretation:
- BTTS Yes: 2 times (1–1, 1–4)
- BTTS No: 3 times (0–1, 0–0, 3–0)
60% of recent meetings → BTTS NO.
This aligns with both teams having good clean-sheet rates this season.
Overall Read
This fixture historically trends toward low scoring or one-sided scoring rather than both sides contributing.
- Everton’s defense at home = reliable.
- Newcastle’s attack away = inconsistent (3 goals across 6 away games).
- Both teams have 50% clean sheet rates in the relevant home/away split.
- Head-to-head leans low scoring.
BTTS Probability Verdict
| Market | Probability | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 42% | Newcastle’s away scoring is weak; Everton don’t score big numbers either. Yes remains possible but not strongly supported by stats. |
| BTTS No | 58% | Historical H2H + both teams’ clean-sheet records + Newcastle poor away attack makes NO more likely. |
Probability Table
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton win | 34% |
| Draw | 29% |
| Newcastle win | 37% |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| BTTS — Yes | 42% |
| BTTS — No | 58% |
| Everton clean sheet | 38% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 35% |
| First team to score — Everton | 54% |
| Goal in 1st half | 62% |
| Correct score — 1–0 Everton | 18% |
| Correct score — 0–0 | 12% |
| Correct score — 1–1 | 16% |
| Correct score — 0–1 Newcastle | 15% |
My Picks
| Market + Pick | Reasoning |
|---|---|
| Everton or Draw (Double Chance) | Everton are strong at home (3W-2D-1L), Newcastle have 0 away wins this season (3D-3L), and H2H from last season shows Everton avoided defeat in both fixtures (0-0 & 0-1 Everton). Newcastle’s away attack is extremely weak (only 3 goals in 6 away), making it difficult for them to control the match. |
Final Verdict
Everton enter this fixture with stronger momentum and a far more reliable home record compared to a Newcastle side that simply cannot perform on the road this season. With Newcastle failing to win any of their six away matches and scoring just three goals in those games, the Magpies remain unpredictable and inconsistent outside St James’ Park. Everton, meanwhile, have tightened up defensively at home, keeping three clean sheets in six matches and showing solid structure even in tough fixtures. Recent head-to-head meetings also lean slightly toward Everton, including last season’s 0-0 at home and a 0-1 away win. Considering form, home strength, and Newcastle’s away weakness, Everton look better positioned to avoid defeat. Final call: Everton or Draw, with expectations of a tight, low-scoring battle
