A midweek Premier League clash kicks off with Bournemouth hosting Everton at the Vitality Stadium, and both sides come into this one looking to bounce back after disappointing losses.
Recent Matches
- Bournemouth suffered a 3–2 defeat to Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. Despite scoring twice, the Cherries collapsed defensively as Sunderland produced a strong comeback.
- Everton were hammered 4–1 by Newcastle United at their new home ground, the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
League Standings
- Bournemouth: 11th place — 18 points
- Everton: 14th place — 19 points
Head-to-Head Dominance
Bournemouth have been Everton’s kryptonite lately.
They have beaten Everton four times in a row across all competitions:
- 1 FA Cup tie
- 3 Premier League matches
This recent history strongly favours Bournemouth. Everton have struggled tactically and physically in the last few years.
Key Question
- Can Bournemouth secure a 5th consecutive win over Everton?
- Or will Everton respond with a rare away victory after their heavy defeat to Newcastle?
Odds Analysis
Bournemouth 2.26
Everton 3.65
Draw 3.45
The market hints at an almost even contest, but Bournemouth are slightly favoured due to:
- Strong home form
- Recent dominant head-to-head record
- Everton’s inconsistency, especially defensively
Form Guide (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Bournemouth
- ❌ Lost 3–2 vs Sunderland (A)
- 🤝 Drew 2–2 vs West Ham (H)
- ❌ Lost 4–0 vs Aston Villa (A)
- ❌ Lost 3–1 vs Man City (A)
- ✅ Won 2–0 vs Nottingham Forest (H)
Everton
- ❌ Lost 1–4 vs Newcastle (H)
- ✅ Won 0–1 vs Man United (A)
- ✅ Won 2–0 vs Fulham (H)
- 🤝 Drew 1–1 vs Sunderland (A)
- ❌ Lost 0–3 vs Spurs (H)
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Bournemouth 1–0 Everton
- Everton 2–3 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–1 Everton
- Everton 3–0 Bournemouth
- Everton 1–0 Bournemouth
Summary:
A mixed record overall, but Bournemouth have won 3 of the last 5.
Home / Away Records This Season
Bournemouth Home Record
- Played: 6
- Won: 4
- Draw: 2
- Lost: 0
➡ One of the strongest home sides this season.
Everton Away Record
- Played: 6
- Won: 2
- Draw: 1
- Lost: 3
➡ Competitive, but inconsistent, especially defensively.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
| Team | Played | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 13 | 21 | 23 |
| Everton | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| Team | Played | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (H) | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| Everton (A) | 6 | 6 | 8 |
H2H (Last 5 Premier League Fixture)
| Match | Goals |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth 1–0 Everton | 1 |
| Everton 2–3 Bournemouth | 5 |
| Bournemouth 2–1 Everton | 3 |
| Everton 3–0 Bournemouth | 3 |
| Everton 1–0 Bournemouth | 1 |
Quick Interpretation
- Bournemouth home = low conceding (0.67 per game).
- Everton away = low scoring (1.00 per game).
- Combined expected goals from averages ≈ 2.3–2.4 range.
- H2H long-term average = 2.6 goals → slightly above 2.5.
- Everton’s style + Bournemouth’s home advantage suggests:
✔ Under safer on paper,
but
✔ H2H has history of one random high-scoring fixture (5 goals, 3 goals).
What This Means for Over/Under
Combined xG per match expected for this fixture:
Bournemouth xG (home) ~1.42
Everton xG (away) ~1.01
Projected total xG = ~2.43
This aligns closely with:
- H2H xG average (2.44)
- H2H goals (~2.6)
- Current form (Everton blunt, Bournemouth strong defensively at home)
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player | Goals | Assist | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo | 6 | 3 | 66% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 4 | 1 | 38% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 4 | 0 | 45% |
| Marcus Tavernier | 3 | 1 | 32% |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 3 | 2 | 29% |
| Jack Grealish | 1 | 4 | 42% |
BTTS Odds
- Yes: 1.79
- No: 2.22
Odds imply:
- BTTS Yes ≈ 56% probability
- BTTS No ≈ 44% probability
Bournemouth
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Games played | 13 |
| Clean sheets | 4 |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% |
| Home games | 6 |
| Home clean sheets | 3 |
| Home clean sheet rate | 50% |
Everton
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Games played | 13 |
| Clean sheets | 4 |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% |
| Away games | 6 |
| Away clean sheets | 1 |
| Away clean sheet rate | 17% |
Combined Probability Estimation
Scoring Power
- Bournemouth: strong home scoring (10 goals in 6 home games)
- Everton: inconsistent but still score in most matches
Conceding Pattern
- Everton concede regularly (away 8 conceded in 6 games)
- Bournemouth defensive swings: either very strong or leaky
H2H doesn’t support BTTS strongly, but current form Does.
| Factor | BTTS Yes | BTTS No |
|---|---|---|
| Odds Probability | 56% | 44% |
| Team Form | 60% | 40% |
| Home/Away Record | 55% | 45% |
| H2H | 40% | 60% |
| FINAL ADJUSTED PROBABILITY | 55% | 45% |
BTTS Yes — Slight Favourite (55%)
Everton concede enough and Bournemouth score consistently at home.
However, it’s not a runaway pick — the H2H and Bournemouth home clean-sheets reduce confidence.
If you’re placing this in your prediction card, list it as:
BTTS: Yes (Medium Confidence)
Probability Table
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 45% |
| Everton Win | 28% |
| Draw | 27% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% |
| Under 2.5 | 42% |
| Btts Yes | 55% |
| Btts No | 45% |
| Bournemouth Cleansheet | 40% |
| Everton Cleansheet | 22% |
| Bournemouth 1+ goal | 80% |
| Bournemouth 2+ goals | 55% |
| Everton 1+ goal | 60% |
| Everton 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bournemouth xG | 1.65 expected goals |
| Everton xG | 1.05 expected goals |
| Semenyo | 45% |
| Kroupi | 30% |
| Tavernier | 22% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 32% |
| Dewsbury-Hall | 20% |
| Bournemouth Edge | 60% effect |
| Everton Edge | 40% effect |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Bournemouth Win or Draw (Double Chance 1X) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Bournemouth walk into this fixture with the stronger momentum at home and a dominant H2H grip over Everton. Even though Everton can be unpredictable on their travels, their defensive inconsistencies and lack of attacking sharpness away from home give Bournemouth the edge. Goals should come in this match—Bournemouth rarely fail to score at the Vitality, and Everton usually create enough chaos to nick one themselves. A cautious approach says Bournemouth avoid defeat, and the attacking patterns of both sides push this toward a game with at least two goals, with a realistic chance of both teams finding the net.
