Fulham return to Craven Cottage looking to bounce back after a frustrating 1–0 defeat away to Leeds at Elland Road. The match appeared to be heading for a draw, but a dramatic late winner from Leeds forward Lukas Nmecha (90+1) settled the contest and left Fulham empty-handed. Dropping points so late in the game will hurt Marco Silva’s side, and this home fixture now becomes an important opportunity to respond.
Brighton, meanwhile, arrive in London after a dramatic 1–1 draw at the Amex against Bournemouth. The Seagulls fell behind in the first half after Marcus Tavernier scored for the visitors, but Brighton showed strong character to fight back late. A 90+1 equaliser from Charalampos Kostoulas ensured Fabian Hürzeler’s side rescued a point.
The reverse fixture between these two sides earlier this season played at the Amex on the opening day also ended 1–1, showing how evenly matched these teams can be. Fulham will be hoping their home advantage can tilt this contest in their favour, while Brighton will aim to control possession and strike through wide areas and transitions.
With both sides recently involved in matches decided in the dying minutes, this fixture could once again come down to fine margins. The big question remains: will it end in another draw like the reverse fixture, or will Fulham or Brighton finally find a winner at Craven Cottage?
Odds Analysis
Match odds
- Fulham: 2.64
- Brighton: 2.84
- Draw: 3.55
The odds slightly lean towards Fulham, mainly because of home advantage at Craven Cottage. However, the gap between both teams’ odds is small, meaning bookmakers expect a tight and competitive fixture, with the draw also a realistic outcome.
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Fulham
- Lost 1–0 vs Leeds (A)
- Won 2–1 vs Chelsea (H)
- Drew 2–2 vs Liverpool (H)
- Drew 1–1 vs Crystal Palace (A)
- Won 1–0 vs West Ham (A)
Fulham’s recent form has been fairly solid, with important wins and strong performances against top sides. Even in defeat against Leeds, it took a stoppage-time goal to decide the game.
Brighton
- Drew 1–1 vs Bournemouth (H)
- Drew 1–1 vs Manchester City (A)
- Won 2–0 vs Burnley (A)
- Drew 2–2 vs West Ham (A)
- Lost 2–1 vs Arsenal (A)
Brighton have drawn many matches recently, which matches their overall season pattern. They are difficult to beat, but also struggle to turn draws into wins.
Season Stats
Fulham
- Played: 22
- Won: 9
- Drew: 4
- Lost: 9
Fulham (Home)
- Played: 11
- Won: 6
- Drew: 2
- Lost: 3
Fulham have been strong at home this season, winning more than half of their matches at Craven Cottage.
Brighton
- Played: 22
- Won: 7
- Drew: 9
- Lost: 6
Brighton (Away)
- Played: 11
- Won: 2
- Drew: 4
- Lost: 5
Brighton’s away record has been inconsistent, with only two wins from eleven away games.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham
- Brighton 2–1 Fulham
- Fulham 3–1 Brighton
- Fulham 3–0 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham
Recent head-to-head matches show a fairly even contest, with both teams winning and two draws. Fulham have had strong home results in this matchup, while Brighton have also managed key wins.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Fulham (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 30
- Conceded: 31
✅ xG scored per match: 1.36
✅ xG conceded per match: 1.41
Fulham matches generally sit in the 2–3 total goals range, with both scoring and conceding regularly.
Fulham (Home – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 19
- Conceded: 13
✅ xG scored per match (home): 1.73
✅ xG conceded per match (home): 1.18
At Craven Cottage Fulham are much stronger going forward, scoring nearly 2 goals per home match.
Brighton (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 32
- Conceded: 29
✅ xG scored per match: 1.45
✅ xG conceded per match: 1.32
Brighton are slightly more balanced than Fulham overall, and usually keep games competitive.
Brighton (Away – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 13
- Conceded: 17
✅ xG scored per match (away): 1.18
✅ xG conceded per match (away): 1.55
Brighton away concede more and score less compared to home, which opens the door for Fulham goals.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham
- Brighton 2–1 Fulham
- Fulham 3–1 Brighton
- Fulham 3–0 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham
H2H goal trend
- Total goals in last 5 H2H: 15
- Average goals per match: 3.0
- Over 1.5 goals: 5/5
- Over 2.5 goals: 2/5
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | G/A Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Harry Wilson (7G, 4A) | 46% |
| Raúl Jiménez (5G, 3A) | 41% |
| Emile Smith Rowe (3G) | 29% |
| Alex Iwobi (2G, 2A) | 27% |
| Danny Welbeck (8G) | 44% |
| Yakuba Minteh (1G, 4A) | 31% |
| Kaoru Mitoma (2G, 1A) | 33% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS odds
- Yes – 1.73
- No – 2.34
The odds clearly lean towards BTTS Yes, which matches both teams’ season goal patterns and recent head-to-head results.
Clean sheet & scoring records
Fulham
- Played: 22
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 4 matches
Fulham (Home)
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score at home: 1 match
Fulham are usually reliable at Craven Cottage, and it’s rare for them to blank at home, which supports BTTS.
Brighton
- Played: 22
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 3 matches
Brighton (Away)
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score away: 3 matches
Brighton’s away scoring record is less consistent, and they have failed to score in multiple away matches, which is the only real risk to BTTS.
Head-to-head (Last 5 Premier League meetings)
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham ✅ BTTS
- Brighton 2–1 Fulham ✅ BTTS
- Fulham 3–1 Brighton ✅ BTTS
- Fulham 3–0 Brighton ❌ BTTS
- Brighton 1–1 Fulham ✅ BTTS
BTTS in last 5 H2H: 4/5 matches
BTTS Summary
- Fulham rarely fail to score at home ✅
- Brighton concede often away ✅
- H2H heavily supports BTTS ✅
- Brighton away scoring inconsistency is the only concern ⚠️
Overall, BTTS Yes looks like the stronger side of the market for this fixture, especially based on head-to-head history and Fulham’s home scoring reliability.
Key Facts
- Brighton have only beaten Fulham once in the Premier League across the last 12 meetings (from 2018 to present).
This highlights how difficult this fixture has been for the Seagulls historically, even when Brighton were in better overall form. - Fulham have failed to score only once in 22 Premier League matches this season and that came at Craven Cottage vs Arsenal, ending in a 0–1 defeat.
This underlines Fulham’s consistency in front of goal, especially at home, and strongly supports goal-based markets like BTTS and Over 1.5 Goals.
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Fulham Win | 39% |
| Draw | 30% |
| Brighton Win | 31% |
| Fulham or Draw (1X) | 69% |
| Brighton or Draw (X2) | 61% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 33% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% |
| BTTS – Yes | 62% |
| BTTS – No | 38% |
| Fulham to Score | 84% |
| Brighton to Score | 66% |
| Fulham Clean Sheet | 24% |
| Brighton Clean Sheet | 20% |
My Picks
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Double Chance | Fulham Win or Draw |
| Goals Market | Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Fulham vs Brighton looks like a fixture where goals are more reliable than trying to force a straight winner, but Fulham still hold the stronger edge due to home form and historical dominance in this matchup. Fulham have been consistent in front of goal this season and have rarely failed to score, especially at Craven Cottage, while Brighton’s away record has been shaky with only a few wins and regular goals conceded. Head-to-head trends also support Fulham avoiding defeat, with Brighton struggling to win this fixture over many recent meetings. With both sides capable of scoring and Fulham typically producing goals at home, the safest angle remains combining Fulham win or draw with Over 1.5 goals, as it covers multiple match outcomes while still aligning with the strong goal expectancy in this contest.
