Chelsea welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge in Matchweek 24 of the Premier League, coming into this London derby full of confidence. The Blues secured an impressive 3–1 away victory over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park last weekend and followed it up with a thrilling 3–2 win against Napoli in the Champions League, confirming their place in the Round of 16.
Chelsea currently sit 5th in the Premier League with 37 points, firmly in the race for Champions League qualification.
West Ham, meanwhile, arrive after a 3–1 home win against Sunderland at the London Stadium, a much-needed boost for the Hammers. However, the last head-to-head meeting between these two sides was a dominant 5–1 victory for Chelsea away from home, highlighting the Blues’ recent superiority in this fixture.
The big question ahead of this clash can West Ham take revenge at Stamford Bridge, or will Chelsea continue their strong form with another home win?
Odds Analysis
Chelsea: 1.56 | Draw: 4.7 | West Ham: 6.6
Chelsea are clear favourites, with the odds implying around a 63–65% chance of a home win. West Ham are priced as big outsiders due to poor season form and weak away performances.
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Chelsea
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea
- Man City 1–1 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth
Chelsea have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games.
They have scored in every match, showing consistent attacking strength, but conceded in four of those fixtures, suggesting some defensive vulnerability.
West Ham
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland
- Tottenham 1–2 West Ham
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest
- Wolves 3–0 West Ham
- West Ham 2–2 Brighton
West Ham have managed 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five.
They scored in four matches but conceded heavily, including a 3–0 defeat to Wolves. Their performances are inconsistent, with clear defensive issues.
Season Performance
Chelsea (23 matches)
- Wins: 10
- Draws: 7
- Losses: 6
Chelsea have been fairly stable this season, losing only six times and remaining competitive in most matches.
Chelsea at Home (11 matches)
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 3
- Losses: 3
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea’s form is decent but not dominant.
They rely on home advantage but are not completely reliable.
West Ham (23 matches)
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 5
- Losses: 13
West Ham have struggled badly this season, losing more than half of their games.
This poor record explains their long odds.
West Ham Away (11 matches)
- Wins: 2
- Draws: 4
- Losses: 5
Away from home, West Ham have picked up very few wins and often concede goals.
Their away form is a major weakness.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- West Ham 1–5 Chelsea (Aug 2025)
- Chelsea 2–1 West Ham (Feb 2025)
- West Ham 0–3 Chelsea (Sep 2024)
- Chelsea 5–0 West Ham (May 2024)
- West Ham 3–1 Chelsea (Aug 2023)
Chelsea have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including several heavy victories.
West Ham have beaten Chelsea only once in this period. Chelsea clearly dominate this matchup.
Odds Verdict
Chelsea’s short price is justified by:
✔ Stronger overall season performance
✔ Better home record
✔ West Ham’s weak away form
✔ Clear dominance in recent H2H games
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Chelsea (Season – 23 matches)
- Goals scored: 39
- Goals conceded: 25
- xG scored per match: ~1.70
- xG conceded per match: ~1.09
👉 Chelsea combine steady attacking output with a fairly solid defense.
👉 Most Chelsea matches comfortably pass Over 1.5 goals.
Chelsea at Home (11 matches)
- Goals scored: 17
- Goals conceded: 11
- xG scored per match: ~1.55
- xG conceded per match: ~1.00
👉 At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea play in a more controlled manner.
👉 They score regularly while keeping things relatively tight defensively.
West Ham (Season – 23 matches)
- Goals scored: 27
- Goals conceded: 45
- xG scored per match: ~1.17
- xG conceded per match: ~1.96
👉 West Ham struggle badly at the back and allow many chances.
👉 Because of this, their matches often go Over 2.5 goals.
✈️ West Ham Away (11 matches)
- Goals scored: 11
- Goals conceded: 19
- xG scored per match: ~1.10
- xG conceded per match: ~1.70
👉 On the road, West Ham frequently concede multiple goals and rarely dominate matches.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- West Ham 1–5 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 West Ham
- West Ham 0–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 5–0 West Ham
- West Ham 3–1 Chelsea
Scorelines: 5–1, 2–1, 3–0, 5–0, 3–1
Total goals: 21 across 5 matches → 4.2 goals per game
👉 All five meetings landed Over 2.5 goals.
👉 This fixture is consistently high-scoring.
Over/Under Market Conclusion
✔ Chelsea score consistently
✔ West Ham concede heavily (especially away)
✔ H2H strongly supports goal-heavy games
Best Lean
👉 Over 1.5 Goals – Very likely
👉 Over 2.5 Goals – High chance
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G/A) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| João Pedro (8G, 3A – 11) | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández (7G, 2A – 9) | 42% |
| Pedro Neto (5G, 3A – 8) | 38% |
| Jarrod Bowen (7G, 2A – 9) | 44% |
| Callum Wilson (5G, 1A – 6) | 32% |
| Mateus Fernandes (3G, 2A – 5) | 26% |
BTTS Odds
Odds
- BTTS Yes: 1.72
- BTTS No: 2.36
Chelsea – Overall (23 matches)
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 2
Chelsea are defensively strong and almost always find the net themselves.
However, their ability to shut teams out means BTTS does not land consistently in their games.
🏠 Chelsea at Home (11 matches)
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 1
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are very solid at the back and rarely blank going forward. Opponents often struggle to score here.
⚒️ West Ham – Overall (23 matches)
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 8
West Ham have been poor both defensively and offensively.
They concede regularly and frequently fail to score. This makes BTTS unreliable in their matches.
✈️ West Ham Away (11 matches)
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 4
On the road, West Ham continue to struggle, conceding often while finding goals difficult to come by.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- West Ham 1–5 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 West Ham
- West Ham 0–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 5–0 West Ham
- West Ham 3–1 Chelsea
Scorelines: 5–1, 2–1, 3–0, 5–0, 3–1
👉 BTTS landed in 3 of the last 5
👉 Chelsea dominated most encounters
👉 West Ham consistently leaked goals
📌 Final BTTS Verdict
✔ Chelsea are strong defensively, especially at home
✔ West Ham often fail to score, particularly away
✔ H2H shows Chelsea control the matchup
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea Win | 64% |
| Draw | 21% |
| West Ham Win | 15% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 42% |
| BTTS – Yes | 45% |
| BTTS – No | 55% |
| Chelsea Clean Sheet | 47% |
| West Ham Clean Sheet | 8% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Chelsea Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Chelsea enter this London derby as clear favourites, backed by strong recent form, home advantage, and clear dominance in recent head-to-head meetings. While West Ham showed improvement in their last outing, their poor defensive record especially away from home makes it difficult to see them stopping an in-form Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge. The Blues’ consistent scoring, combined with West Ham’s tendency to concede, points toward a Chelsea-controlled match with goals likely. Overall, Chelsea should have enough quality to secure at least a point, with a home win the most probable outcome in a game that could once again produce over 2.5 goals.
