Nottingham Forest head into Matchweek 24 full of confidence after a dominant 4–0 victory over Hungarian side Ferencváros in their midweek Europa League fixture. That emphatic win provided a major morale boost as Forest now turn their focus back to Premier League survival, welcoming Crystal Palace to the City Ground.
Crystal Palace, on the other hand, arrive after a 1–3 home defeat to Chelsea at Selhurst Park, a result that exposed some defensive vulnerabilities. Despite that setback, Palace remain in a relatively safer position in the league standings.
There is just a three-point gap between the two sides, with Palace sitting 15th on 28 points and Forest close behind in 17th with 25 points, hovering just above the relegation zone. Forest know that a victory here could be crucial in creating breathing space from the bottom three, while Palace will be keen to avoid being dragged further into the relegation battle.
The most recent head-to-head meeting ended in a 1–1 draw at Selhurst Park, highlighting how closely matched these two sides have been in recent encounters.
With Forest’s home advantage and renewed confidence from Europe facing Palace’s need to bounce back from defeat, this fixture promises a tight contest — but will Nottingham Forest claim a vital home win, will Palace strike on the road, or are the points set to be shared once again?
Odds Analysis
Nottingham Forest – 2.02
Draw – 3.65
Crystal Palace – 4.20
The bookmakers have made Nottingham Forest slight favourites at home, but the odds still suggest a fairly open contest. Palace are priced as outsiders despite their solid away form, while the draw remains attractive considering the recent head-to-head trend.
Nottingham Forest
- Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Everton
Forest have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last five matches. They showed strong performances away from home but struggled at the City Ground, failing to score in two matches and managing only one clean sheet.
👉 Overall form has been inconsistent, with a clear contrast between away success and home struggles.
Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa
- Newcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham
Palace have managed 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from their last five outings. They failed to score in two matches and conceded regularly, pointing to below-average recent form.
👉 Performances have lacked consistency, especially defensively.
Season Performance
Nottingham Forest
- Played: 23
- Won: 7
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 12
Forest have struggled across the season, losing more than half of their matches. Their overall league position reflects frequent dropped points and a lack of stability.
Nottingham Forest – Home Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 6
Home form has been a major issue for Forest. With just three wins at the City Ground, they often fail to control matches in front of their own fans.
👉 Home advantage has not worked in their favour this season.
Crystal Palace – Season Record
- Played: 23
- Won: 7
- Drawn: 7
- Lost: 9
Palace have been more balanced overall, with fewer defeats and a higher number of draws compared to Forest. Their season has been steadier.
✈️ Crystal Palace – Away Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 5
- Drawn: 1
- Lost: 5
Away from home, Palace have been competitive, winning nearly half of their matches on the road.
👉 Away form is one of Palace’s key strengths.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (24 August 2025)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (6 May 2025)
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace (22 October 2024)
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace (30 March 2024)
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham Forest (7 October 2023)
Four of the last five meetings have ended in draws, with just one narrow Forest win. Most matches have been low-scoring and closely contested.
👉 This fixture is usually tight and difficult to separate.
Odds Verdict
Despite being favourites, Nottingham Forest’s poor home record makes the 2.02 price look slightly risky. Crystal Palace’s stronger away form and the heavy recent draw trend in head-to-head meetings suggest this game may once again be closely fought.
Forest have shown better performances on the road than at home, while Palace are comfortable playing away, which balances the matchup more than the odds imply.
👉 The market leans toward Forest, but the statistics point toward a tight contest, with the draw or Crystal Palace avoiding defeat looking like realistic outcomes.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
📊 Nottingham Forest – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 23
- Conceded: 34
- xG scored per match: 1.00
- xG conceded per match: 1.48
Nottingham Forest average around 1 goal scored and nearly 1.5 goals conceded per game. Their matches rarely stay extremely low-scoring, but they also don’t usually turn into goal-fests.
👉 Most Forest games comfortably cross Over 1.5 goals, but big scorelines are uncommon.
🏠 Nottingham Forest – Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 12
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored per match: 1.10
- xG conceded per match: 1.50
At the City Ground, Forest score just over one goal per match but concede regularly.
👉 Home games tend to be tight but defensively fragile, often finishing around 1–1, 2–1, or 1–2.
Crystal Palace – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 24
- Conceded: 28
- xG scored per match: 1.04
- xG conceded per match: 1.22
Crystal Palace average just over 1 goal scored and around 1.2 conceded per match.
👉 Most Palace games fall into the low-to-medium scoring range, rather than high goal totals.
Crystal Palace – Away Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 13
- Conceded: 13
- xG scored per match: 1.18
- xG conceded per match: 1.18
Away from home, Palace are very balanced — scoring and conceding at almost the same rate.
👉 Their away matches are usually close and controlled, with few heavy scorelines.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (24 August 2025)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (6 May 2025)
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace (22 October 2024)
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace (30 March 2024)
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham Forest (7 October 2023)
Scorelines: 1–1, 1–1, 1–0, 1–1, 0–0
Total goals: 6 in 5 matches → 1.2 goals per game
Only one match crossed Over 2.5 goals.
👉 This fixture is consistently low-scoring.
Over/Under Final Verdict
- Both teams average close to 1 goal per match
- Forest concede often, but Palace don’t usually play open games
- Head-to-head history strongly points toward tight scorelines
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White (5G / 2A) | 38% |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi (3G / 1A) | 28% |
| Ibrahim Sangaré (2G / 2A) | 26% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta (8G / 0A) | 45% |
| Daniel Muñoz (3G / 2A) | 32% |
| Ismaïla Sarr (3G / 1A) | 30% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS – Yes: 1.94
BTTS – No: 2.04
The market is almost evenly split, but the underlying stats point slightly more toward a low-scoring contest where one or both teams may fail to score.
Nottingham Forest Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 11
Forest have failed to score in nearly half of their matches, highlighting major attacking struggles. While their defence occasionally holds firm, goals at both ends are not common in their games.
Nottingham Forest Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 5
At home, Forest have kept just one clean sheet, but they have also failed to score in almost half their home games.
👉 Home matches are unpredictable — they concede often but don’t always score themselves.
Crystal Palace Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 8
- Failed to score: 10
Palace have shown solid defensive organisation with 8 clean sheets, but their attack has also been inconsistent, failing to score in ten matches.
👉 BTTS does not occur frequently in Palace games.
Crystal Palace Away
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 2
Away from home, Palace are more reliable going forward and remain defensively solid.
👉 Away fixtures sometimes support BTTS, but clean sheets are still common.
🔁 Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (24 August 2025)
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (6 May 2025)
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace (22 October 2024)
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace (30 March 2024)
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham Forest (7 October 2023)
BTTS occurred in 3 of the last 5 matches, but:
• All games were low-scoring
• Clean sheets appeared regularly
👉 This fixture traditionally stays tight.
📌 BTTS Final Verdict
- Nottingham Forest often struggle to score
- Crystal Palace keep a good number of clean sheets
- Head-to-head history favours low-goal matches
Key Facts
Key Facts – Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace have won just once in the last 14 head-to-head meetings, that victory coming all the way back in 2011 in the Championship.
- Across those 14 encounters:
👉 Nottingham Forest have won 6 times
👉 7 matches ended in draws
👉 Only 1 win for Palace - Draws have been a common outcome in this fixture — five of the last 14 meetings finished 1–1.
- Just one match ended goalless (0–0), which occurred in 2023 at Selhurst Park, meaning goals have featured in 13 of the last 14 clashes.
👉 Historically, this matchup strongly favours Nottingham Forest and tends to produce goals rather than low-scoring stalemates.
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win | 40% |
| Draw | 35% |
| Crystal Palace Win | 25% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 75% |
| BTTS – Yes | 45% |
| BTTS – No | 55% |
| Nottingham Forest Clean Sheet | 22% |
| Crystal Palace Clean Sheet | 38% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White (Goal/Assist) | 38% |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi (Goal/Assist) | 28% |
| Ibrahim Sangaré (Goal/Assist) | 26% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta (Goal/Assist) | 45% |
| Daniel Muñoz (Goal/Assist) | 32% |
| Ismaïla Sarr (Goal/Assist) | 30% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Total Goals |
Final Verdict
With only three points separating Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in the table, this match carries huge importance in the relegation battle. Forest come into the fixture boosted by their impressive European win and will look to use the City Ground advantage to push for a positive result. However, their inconsistent home form this season makes it difficult to fully trust them for a comfortable victory. Crystal Palace, despite their recent defeat to Chelsea, have generally been competitive away from home and are capable of making this a difficult contest. Given the tight head-to-head history and both teams’ struggles for consistency, this game looks likely to be closely fought, with a draw or a narrow Forest result appearing the most realistic outcome.
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