Both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest head into this crucial Matchweek 25 clash hovering just above the relegation zone, locked on 26 points each. Leeds currently sit in 17th place, with Forest just alongside them, making this encounter a massive six-pointer in the survival battle.
Leeds come into the match after a heavy 4–0 home defeat to Arsenal, where they struggled badly and managed just one shot on target throughout the game. It was a tough afternoon at Elland Road, highlighting their recent attacking difficulties.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, arrive after a 1–1 draw against Crystal Palace at the City Ground. The match saw Forest concede a penalty just before halftime when Neco Williams was penalised for handball in the box, allowing Ismaïla Sarr to convert from the spot for Palace. Forest showed resilience to earn a point but will feel they could have taken more.
The most recent meeting between these two sides at the City Ground ended in a 3–1 victory for Nottingham Forest.
Leeds struck first through Lukas Nmecha in the 13th minute, but Forest responded quickly with Ibrahim Sangaré equalising just two minutes later. In the second half, Morgan Gibbs-White put Forest ahead in the 68th minute before Elliot Anderson sealed the win in stoppage time.
With both teams level on points and fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, this fixture carries huge importance. Leeds will be desperate to bounce back in front of their home crowd after the Arsenal defeat, while Forest will look to build on their recent resilience and repeat their previous success in this matchup.
Can Leeds use home advantage to take revenge and gain vital breathing space, or will Nottingham Forest once again come out on top in this relegation showdown?
Odds Analysis
Leeds – 2.32
Draw – 3.40
Nottingham Forest – 3.60
Bookmakers have given Leeds a slight edge, mainly due to their home advantage at Elland Road. However, the odds remain fairly balanced, showing that this is expected to be a competitive and open contest.
Recent Form – Leeds United
- Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
- Everton 1–1 Leeds
- Leeds 1–0 Fulham
- Newcastle 4–3 Leeds
- Leeds 1–1 Manchester United
Leeds have been very inconsistent lately, mixing heavy defeats with narrow wins and draws.
They tend to play attacking football, especially at home, but their defence is a major weakness, often conceding multiple goals.
👉 Stronger at home, but vulnerable at the back.
Recent Form – Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
Forest have looked slightly more stable in recent weeks, picking up points through solid defending and effective counter-attacks.
Their away form is average, but they tend to sit deep and try to frustrate opponents.
👉 More organised than Leeds, but limited going forward.
Season Performance
Leeds United
- Played: 24
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 8
- Lost: 10
Leeds score regularly but concede a lot, making their matches entertaining and often high-scoring.
👉 Defence remains their biggest problem.
Leeds – Home Record
- Won: 5
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 3
At Elland Road, Leeds attack with more confidence and create more chances.
👉 Home matches usually feature goals.
Nottingham Forest
- Played: 24
- Won: 7
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 12
Forest struggle to score consistently and also allow plenty of chances defensively.
👉 Matches often sit around 2–3 goals.
Nottingham Forest – Away Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 4
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 6
Away games are usually more defensive for Forest, with lower scoring output, but they often concede first.
👉 Road form is shaky.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Meetings)
- Nottingham Forest 3–1 Leeds (PL)
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Leeds (Friendlies)
- Leeds 2–1 Nottingham Forest (PL)
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Leeds (PL)
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 Leeds (Champioship)
Forest have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, while Leeds have taken 2 wins.
👉 Slight historical edge to Forest.
Overall Odds Verdict
✔ Leeds are stronger at home but leak goals
✔ Forest are more organised but limited in attack
✔ Both defences allow chances
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Leeds United – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 31
- Conceded: 42
- xG scored: ~1.3
- xG conceded: ~1.7
Leeds score at a decent rate but concede heavily, which makes most of their matches open and unpredictable.
👉 Their weak defence is the main reason goals often flow in their games.
Leeds – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 19
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored: ~1.5
- xG conceded: ~1.4
At Elland Road, Leeds attack with more confidence and also defend slightly better than away.
👉 Home games usually sit in the medium-to-high scoring range.
Nottingham Forest – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 24
- Conceded: 35
- xG scored: ~1.1
- xG conceded: ~1.5
Forest struggle to score consistently but allow many chances at the back.
👉 Their matches usually involve 2–3 total goals.
Nottingham Forest – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 11
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored: ~1.0
- xG conceded: ~1.4
Away from home, Forest play more cautiously, but still concede regularly.
👉 Away games are often low-to-medium scoring, but rarely shutouts.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 Meetings)
- Nottingham Forest 3–1 Leeds
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Leeds
- Leeds 2–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Leeds
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 Leeds
Pattern:
- Most games finished around 2–3 goals
- Only one real high-scoring match (3–1)
👉 H2H slightly leans toward moderate totals.
Over/Under Final Verdict
Key factors:
✔ Leeds’ defence is very weak
✔ Forest concede regularly
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Ibrahim Sangaré (2G / 2A) | 18% |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi (3G / 1A) | 20% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White (6G / 2A) | 35% |
| Anton Stach (3G / 3A) | 22% |
| Brenden Aaronson (4G / 3A) | 25% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin (9G / 1A) | 42% |
BTTS Odds
Yes – 1.9
No – 2.06
Leeds United – BTTS Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 6
Leeds usually find the net but struggle badly in defence, which is why many of their matches stay open.
👉 They concede often but rarely go goalless.
Leeds – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 2
At Elland Road, Leeds are much stronger in attack and almost always score.
👉 Home games strongly support Leeds scoring at least once.
Nottingham Forest – BTTS Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 11
Forest’s biggest issue is their attack. Nearly half their matches end without them scoring.
👉 Defence isn’t great either, but goals going forward are inconsistent.
Nottingham Forest – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 6
Away from home, Forest struggle even more in attack.
👉 They sometimes keep it tight, but often fail to score.
🔁 Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Matches)
- Forest 3–1 Leeds ✅
- Forest 0–2 Leeds ❌
- Leeds 2–1 Forest ✅
- Forest 1–0 Leeds ❌
- Forest 2–0 Leeds ❌
Probability Table
| Market Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Leeds Win | 42% |
| Draw | 28% |
| Nottingham Forest Win | 30% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% |
| BTTS – Yes | 48% |
| BTTS – No | 52% |
| Leeds Win or Draw (1X) | 70% |
| Forest Win or Draw (X2) | 58% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Leeds Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
With both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest level on points and hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone, this feels like a tense, high-pressure battle rather than a free-flowing game of football. Leeds should show a reaction after their heavy defeat to Arsenal and their home advantage gives them a slight edge, especially with how regularly they tend to score at Elland Road. However, Forest have looked more organised recently and already proved in the reverse fixture that they can punish Leeds’ defensive weaknesses. Overall, Leeds look capable of avoiding defeat at home, but Forest’s resilience suggests this could stay tight and competitive — with goals likely playing a key role. A narrow Leeds edge or a hard-fought draw feels the most realistic outcome in this relegation six-pointer.
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