The most anticipated clash of Matchweek 24 sees Liverpool welcome Manchester City to a roaring Anfield.
Liverpool currently sit 6th in the Premier League with 39 points, just outside the Champions League places and desperately needing big results to close the gap on the top four. They come into this fixture full of confidence after a dominant 4–1 victory over Newcastle United in their last league match, where their attack looked sharp and ruthless.
One advantage for the Reds is freshness unlike City, Liverpool did not have a midweek cup fixture, giving them extra time to rest and prepare for this massive showdown.
Manchester City arrive in strong shape, sitting 2nd in the league on 47 points, firmly in the title race.
Like Liverpool, City also defeated Newcastle recently, beating them 3–1 in the EFL Cup semi-final in midweek at the Etihad Stadium. That win kept their momentum going, though it also means City have played one extra match, which could slightly affect freshness compared to Liverpool.
The visitors do face a setback heading into this game, with key defenders Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol both unavailable — a potential weakness against Liverpool’s fast attack.
The last meeting between these two giants ended in a comfortable 3–0 win for Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.
• ⚽ Erling Haaland opened the scoring (29’)
• ⚽ Nico González added a second just before halftime (45+3’)
• ⚽ Jérémy Doku sealed it in the second half
City completely controlled that encounter.
Match Context
• Liverpool are pushing hard for Champions League qualification
• Manchester City are chasing the league title
• Both sides come off strong wins against Newcastle
• Liverpool have rest advantage
• City are missing two key defenders
• Last H2H heavily favoured City
👉 Can Liverpool use Anfield’s famous atmosphere and City’s defensive absences to claim a massive home win, or will Manchester City once again prove too strong and take all three points on the road?
Liverpool vs Manchester City Key Facts
• In the last 20 matches at Anfield, Manchester City have managed to beat Liverpool only once
• That lone victory came in February 2021, a 4–1 win under Pep Guardiola
• Aside from that, City have consistently struggled to get results at Anfield
Odds Analysis
Liverpool – 2.50
Draw – 3.85
Manchester City – 2.92
Bookmakers see this as a very tight contest, with a slight lean toward Liverpool due to home advantage at Anfield but City are priced closely, showing strong respect for their overall quality.
Liverpool – Recent Form & Home Strength
Last 5 PL games:
- Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool
Liverpool are scoring regularly (4 of last 5 matches) but also conceding frequently.
👉 Attack looks dangerous
👉 Defence is inconsistent
📊 Liverpool Season (24 PL games)
- Wins: 11 | Draws: 6 | Losses: 7
Liverpool Home Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 7 | Drawn: 3 | Lost: 2
Manchester City – Recent Form
Last 5 PL games:
- Tottenham 2–2 Man City
- Man City 2–0 Wolves
- Man United 2–0 Man City
- Man City 1–1 Brighton
- Man City 1–1 Chelsea
📊 Manchester City Season (24 PL games)
- Wins: 14 | Draws: 5 | Losses: 5
Manchester City Away Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 5 | Drawn: 3 | Lost: 4
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Man City 3–0 Liverpool (Nov 2025)
- Man City 0–2 Liverpool (Feb 2025)
- Liverpool 2–0 Man City (Dec 2024)
- Liverpool 1–1 Man City (Mar 2024)
- Man City 1–1 Liverpool (Nov 2023)
👉 Very balanced rivalry
👉 Usually competitive with goals involved
Overall Odds Verdict (honest take)
✔ Liverpool strong at Anfield
✔ Both teams score regularly
This is priced almost like a coin flip. But
👉 Liverpool’s home edge keeps them favourites
👉 City’s overall quality keeps them dangerous
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Liverpool – Goals Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Scored: 39
- Conceded: 33
- xG scored: ~1.6
- xG conceded: ~1.4
Liverpool’s matches are usually open and entertaining.
They score consistently but also allow plenty of chances.
Liverpool – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 20
- Conceded: 12
- xG scored: ~1.7
- xG conceded: ~1.0
At Anfield, Liverpool create many chances and still concede occasionally.
Manchester City – Goals Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Scored: 49
- Conceded: 23
- xG scored: ~2.0
- xG conceded: ~1.0
City dominate possession and consistently create high-quality chances.
👉 One of the strongest attacking teams in the league.
Manchester City – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 20
- Conceded: 15
- xG scored: ~1.6
- xG conceded: ~1.2
Away from home, City still score freely but are slightly more open defensively.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 PL Games)
Scores: 3–0, 2–0, 2–0, 1–1, 1–1
- ✅ 3 of 5 matches went Over 2.5 goals
- 📈 Almost every game had 2+ goals
- ⚽ Rarely a low-scoring fixture
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike (10G / 2A) | 45% |
| Cody Gakpo (2G / 3A) | 20% |
| Florian Wirtz (4G / 2A) | 25% |
| Erling Haaland (20G / 5A) | 64% |
| Antoine Semenyo (12G / 3A) | 50% |
| Phil Foden (7G / 2A) | 35% |
BTTS Odds
Liverpool – BTTS Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 4
Liverpool usually score in most games, but their defence isn’t consistent enough to shut teams out.
👉 They score often, but also concede regularly → BTTS happens frequently.
Liverpool at Home
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 2
At Anfield, Liverpool almost always find the net but rarely keep clean sheets.
👉 Home games strongly support BTTS Yes.
Manchester City – BTTS Trend
Overall (24 matches)
- Clean sheets: 10
- Failed to score: 5
City have a strong defence compared to most teams, but their attacking power means matches usually include goals.
👉 They score in almost every match.
Man City Away
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 3
Away from home, City concede more often while still scoring consistently.
👉 BTTS becomes more common on the road.
🔁 Head-to-Head BTTS Record (Last 5 PL Games)
Results: 3–0, 0–2, 2–0, 1–1, 1–1
- ✅ BTTS Yes in 3 of last 5 matches
- ⚽ Most meetings had goals from both sides
- 🚫 Rarely a 0–0 fixture
Probability Table
| Market Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 38% |
| Draw | 27% |
| Manchester City Win | 35% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 32% |
| BTTS – Yes | 72% |
| BTTS – No | 28% |
| Liverpool Win or Draw (1X) | 65% |
| Manchester City Win or Draw (X2) | 62% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| LiverpoolWin or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Everything points toward a thrilling, high-intensity battle at Anfield, but Liverpool look well placed to make this extremely difficult for Manchester City. The Reds come in fresher with no midweek game, strong momentum from their win over Newcastle, and the massive boost of Anfield’s atmosphere — a ground where City have historically struggled. City remain the stronger side on season form, but missing key defenders could leave them vulnerable against Liverpool’s pace and pressing. Overall, this feels like a match where goals are almost guaranteed and where Liverpool have a real chance to avoid defeat, with a narrow home win or a high-scoring draw looking the most realistic outcomes in this blockbuster clash.
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