Chelsea welcome Leeds United to Stamford Bridge for a midweek Premier League clash in Matchweek 26, with both sides coming into this fixture on the back of convincing 3–1 victories.
Chelsea impressed away from home last weekend with a 3–1 win at Molineux, continuing their push for Champions League qualification. The Blues currently sit 5th in the table with 43 points, firmly in the European race and aware that home fixtures like this are must-win if they want to stay ahead of the chasing pack.
Leeds United, meanwhile, eased some relegation pressure with a 3–1 home win against Nottingham Forest at Elland Road. That result has lifted them to 16th place on 29 points, giving them a six-point cushion above the relegation zone but safety is far from guaranteed.
The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Leeds beat Chelsea 3–1 at Elland Road, a result that will still be fresh in the minds of the Chelsea players and supporters. That defeat adds an extra edge to this contest, with the hosts keen on revenge.
Now back at Stamford Bridge, the question is whether Chelsea can assert their home dominance and keep their top-four ambitions alive, or if Leeds United can once again trouble a big side and take another huge step toward survival.
A classic clash of European ambition versus relegation survival expect intensity, goals, and plenty at stake under the lights in west London.
Match Odds Prediction
Chelsea – 1.58
Draw – 4.50
Leeds – 6.60
Bookmakers have Chelsea as clear favourites at Stamford Bridge, reflecting the gap in form, squad quality, and especially Leeds’ poor away record. Leeds’ long odds underline how difficult this fixture looks for them on the road.
Chelsea Last 5 Premier League matches
- Wolves 1–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 3–2 West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea
Leeds United Last 5 Premier League matches
- Leeds 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
- Everton 1–1 Leeds
- Leeds 1–0 Fulham
- Newcastle 4–3 Leeds
Season Performance Chelsea
- Played: 25
- Won: 12 | Drawn: 7 | Lost: 6
Chelsea Home
- Played: 12
- Won: 6 | Drawn: 3 | Lost: 3
Leeds United
- Played: 25
- Won: 7 | Drawn: 8 | Lost: 10
Leeds Away
- Played: 12
- Won: 1 | Drawn: 4 | Lost: 7
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Leeds 3–1 Chelsea (Dec 2025)
- Chelsea 1–0 Leeds (Mar 2023)
- Leeds 3–0 Chelsea (Aug 2022)
- Leeds 0–3 Chelsea (May 2022)
- Chelsea 3–2 Leeds (Dec 2021)
Overall Odds Verdict
Why Chelsea are favourites
- Better recent form
- Strong home performances
- Leeds’ very poor away record
Why Leeds still carry some danger
- They usually score
- Chelsea rarely keep clean sheets
- H2H often produces goals
Chelsea vs Leeds United Xg Statistics
Chelsea goals this season
Overall (25 matches)
- Goals scored: 45
- Goals conceded: 28
- xG scored: ~1.80
- xG conceded: ~1.12
Chelsea home xg this season
- Played: 12
- Scored: 20
- Conceded: 13
- xG scored: ~1.67
- xG conceded: ~1.08
Leeds United xg this season
Overall (25 matches)
- Goals scored: 34
- Goals conceded: 43
- xG scored: ~1.36
- xG conceded: ~1.72
Leeds United away xg statistics
- Played: 12
- Scored: 12
- Conceded: 25
- xG scored: ~1.00
- xG conceded: ~2.08
Head-to-Head XG (Last 5 PL Meetings)
Leeds 3–1 Chelsea
- Leeds xG: 2.1
- Chelsea xG: 1.0
Chelsea 1–0 Leeds
- Chelsea xG: 1.3
- Leeds xG: 0.8
Leeds 3–0 Chelsea
- Leeds xG: 2.3
- Chelsea xG: 0.6
Leeds 0–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea xG: 2.4
- Leeds xG: 0.7
Chelsea 3–2 Leeds
- Chelsea xG: 2.0
- Leeds xG: 1.6
| Team | Avg xG / match |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.46 |
| Leeds | 1.50 |
Anytime Goalscorer Prediction
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| João Pedro (9G / 4A) | 45% |
| Enzo Fernández (8G / 2A) | 40% |
| Cole Palmer (7G / 0A) | 35% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10G / 1A) | 48% |
| Lukas Nmecha (5G / 0A) | 30% |
| Brenden Aaronson (4G / 3A) | 28% |
Both team to score prediction
- BTTS – Yes: 1.79
- BTTS – No: 2.24
Chelsea clean sheets this season
Overall (25 matches)
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 2
At Stamford Bridge
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 1
Leeds United clean sheets this season
Overall (25 matches)
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 7
Away from Home
- Clean sheets: 0
- Failed to score: 5
Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 PL Games)
Results: 3–1, 1–0, 3–0, 0–3, 3–2
- BTTS Yes: 3/5
- Over 2.5 goals: 4/5
Chelsea vs Leeds United Win Probability
| Market Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Chelsea Win | 60% |
| Draw | 22% |
| Leeds Win | 18% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 32% |
| BTTS – Yes | 55% |
| BTTS – No | 45% |
| Chelsea Win or Draw (1X) | 82% |
| Chelsea Win & Over 1.5 Goals | 58% |
| Chelsea Clean Sheet | 38% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Chelsea Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Chelsea vs Leeds United Final Verdict
This matchup feels perfectly set up for Chelsea to respond. The Blues arrive in strong form, are far more reliable at Stamford Bridge, and have clear motivation to make amends for the 3–1 defeat in the reverse fixture. Leeds United will compete and are capable of scoring, but their away defensive record remains a major concern against a Chelsea side that is creating chances consistently. Expect Leeds to make it uncomfortable in spells, yet over 90 minutes Chelsea’s superior quality, home advantage, and European push should tell. A Chelsea win in a match with goals on both sides looks the most likely outcome, with revenge firmly on the agenda for the hosts.
