Chelsea welcome Burnley to Stamford Bridge for an intriguing Premier League Matchweek 27 clash. The Blues enter this fixture sitting 5th in the table with 44 points, narrowly trailing the Champions League qualification spots. Burnley, meanwhile, face mounting pressure in the relegation zone, positioned 19th with just 18 points.
Chelsea’s most recent league outing saw them held to a 2–2 draw against Leeds at Stamford Bridge. However, they responded strongly in midweek competition, securing an emphatic 0–4 FA Cup victory over Hull City at the MKM Stadium, highlighted by Pedro Neto’s clinical hat-trick. The performance reinforced Chelsea’s attacking depth and confidence ahead of this home encounter.
Burnley arrive with mixed momentum. The Clarets earned an encouraging 2–3 away victory against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, demonstrating attacking resilience. Yet, inconsistency quickly resurfaced with a disappointing 1–2 home defeat to Mansfield Town in FA cup round 4, underlining the defensive vulnerabilities that have defined their campaign.
The most recent head-to-head meeting favoured Chelsea, who secured a controlled 0–2 victory at Turf Moor. Goals from Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernández sealed a result that reflected Chelsea’s superior structure and efficiency.
Chelsea vs Burnley Key Points:
1. Across the last 8 meetings at Stamford Bridge, Burnley have managed only one victory — a memorable 2–3 win in August 2017.
2. That result remains Burnley’s only win across 17 Premier League H2H encounters home and away.
3. Notably, no match between these sides has ended goalless, highlighting a consistent scoring pattern.
4. Burnley have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season (51), emphasizing persistent defensive instability.
Match Context
Chelsea enter as clear favourites, supported by:
. Strong home advantage
. Superior squad depth
. Burnley’s defensive struggles
. Dominant historical record
Burnley’s hopes largely depend on defensive discipline and capitalizing on transitional opportunities rather than sustained control.
Can Burnley deliver another upset at Stamford Bridge, or will Chelsea’s attacking quality secure a straightforward home victory?
Match Odds Prediction
- Chelsea: 1.25
- Draw: 7.4
- Burnley: 14.5
The bookmakers position Chelsea as overwhelming favourites. Burnley enter as heavy underdogs, with the market implying a strong expectation of a home victory.
Chelsea last 5 Premier League matches
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds
- Wolves 1–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 3–2 West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
Chelsea have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches. They scored in every game, producing 13 goals, reflecting strong attacking momentum. While the draw against Leeds hints at occasional defensive vulnerability, overall performances suggest consistency and offensive sharpness.
Burnley last 5 Premier League matches
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 West Ham
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
Burnley’s recent record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Competitive draws against Tottenham and Liverpool highlight resilience, but heavy defeats underline persistent defensive instability. Their results indicate inconsistency rather than sustained improvement.
Chelsea this season statistics
- Played: 26
- Won: 12
- Drawn: 8
- Lost: 6
Chelsea maintain a competitive campaign, balancing wins with a significant number of draws. Their attacking output remains reliable, particularly against lower-table opposition.
Chelsea home form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 3
Chelsea’s home form is solid rather than dominant. Draw frequency suggests occasional difficulty breaking down compact opponents, though defensive stability limits damaging defeats.
Burnley this season statistics
- Played: 26
- Won: 4
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 16
Burnley’s season reflects relegation concerns, with losses heavily outweighing victories. Defensive weaknesses continue to define their campaign.
Burnley away home form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 2
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 9
Burnley struggle significantly away from home. Limited wins and frequent defeats expose structural and defensive vulnerabilities on the road.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Burnley 0–2 Chelsea (22 Nov 2025)
- Chelsea 2–2 Burnley (30 Mar 2024)
- Burnley 1–4 Chelsea (7 Oct 2023)
- Burnley 0–4 Chelsea (5 Mar 2022)
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley (6 Nov 2021)
Chelsea have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with Burnley securing 2 draws. Several fixtures displayed Chelsea’s attacking superiority, often producing multi-goal outcomes.
Overall Odds View
Chelsea enter as clear favourites based on:
. Strong recent form
. Superior squad quality
. Burnley’s poor defensive metrics
. Burnley’s weak away record
Burnley’s chances largely depend on defensive discipline and Chelsea inefficiency rather than proactive dominance.
From a betting and prediction standpoint, logical considerations include:
Chelsea Win or Draw & Goals Markets
Chelsea vs Burnley Over/Under Goals Predictions & Xg Statistics
Chelsea goals this season
- Played: 26
- Goals Scored: 47
- Goals Conceded: 30
- xG Scored per Match: ~1.81
- xG Conceded per Match: ~1.15
Chelsea’s numbers reflect strong attacking production supported by relatively controlled defensive metrics. Their xG profile indicates consistent chance creation with manageable defensive exposure.
Chelsea home goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 22
- Goals Conceded: 15
- xG Scored per Match: ~1.69
- xG Conceded per Match: ~1.15
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea maintain reliable attacking output. However, conceding 15 goals suggests matches are often open rather than defensively dominant.
Burnley goals this season
- Played: 26
- Goals Scored: 28
- Goals Conceded: 51
- xG Scored per Match: ~1.08
- xG Conceded per Match: ~1.96
Burnley’s defensive vulnerability is clearly visible. Conceding 51 goals alongside a high xG conceded figure highlights persistent structural issues.
Burnley away goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 16
- Goals Conceded: 32
- xG Scored per Match: ~1.23
- xG Conceded per Match: ~2.46
Burnley’s away data strongly signals high-risk defensive performances. Their elevated xG conceded figure suggests opponents consistently generate high-quality chances.
Head-to-Head Goals Pattern
Recent meetings:
- Burnley 0–2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–2 Burnley
- Burnley 1–4 Chelsea
- Burnley 0–4 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley
Over/Under Goals Prediction
. Chelsea’s strong attacking metrics
. Burnley’s defensive weakness (especially away)
. Burnley’s high xG conceded rate
. Historical multi-goal meetings
Over 1.5 Goals – Strong Lean
Over 2.5 Goals – Value Dependent
Anytime Goalscorer Prediction
| Player | Goal / Assist Probability |
|---|---|
| João Pedro (10G / 4A) | 45% |
| Enzo Fernández (8G / 2A) | 33% |
| Cole Palmer (8G / 1A) | 57% |
| Jaidon Anthony (6G / 1A) | 28% |
| Zian Flemming (5G / 0A) | 22% |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (3G / 1A) | 18% |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
- Yes: 2.04
- No: 1.90
Chelsea clean sheets this season
- Played: 26
- Clean Sheets: 9
- Failed to Score: 2
Chelsea’s attack has been highly reliable, failing to score only twice all season. While they have kept a respectable number of clean sheets, conceding goals in many matches suggests defensive solidity is good but not dominant.
Chelsea home clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 4
- Failed to Score: 1
Chelsea’s home attack remains strong, with just one scoring blank. However, moderate clean sheet numbers imply that opponents frequently find scoring opportunities at Stamford Bridge.
Burnley clean sheets this season
- Played: 26
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Failed to Score: 9
Burnley’s defensive record reflects clear vulnerability, while failing to score in over a third of matches highlights attacking inconsistency.
Burnley away clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 0
- Failed to Score: 3
Burnley’s away data is particularly revealing:
No clean sheets
Frequent concessions
Reasonable scoring frequency
Despite overall attacking limitations, Burnley have still managed to score in most away fixtures.
Head-to-Head BTTS Pattern
- Burnley 0–2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–2 Burnley
- Burnley 1–4 Chelsea
- Burnley 0–4 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley
Key observations:
. Chelsea dominance
. Multiple BTTS outcomes
. Burnley occasionally scoring
Factors Supporting BTTS – Yes
. Chelsea’s highly reliable attack
. Burnley’s zero away clean sheets
. Burnley’s ability to score away
. Historical BTTS occurrences
Factors Supporting BTTS – No
. Chelsea’s clean sheet potential
. Burnley’s inconsistent attack
. Heavy favourite match dynamic
Chelsea vs Burnley Win Probability
| Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea Win | ~75–80% |
| Draw | ~13–16% |
| Burnley Win | ~5–7% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | ~95–97% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | ~82–86% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | ~64–69% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | ~31–36% |
| BTTS – Yes | ~44–48% |
| BTTS – No | ~52–56% |
| Chelsea Win to Nil | ~38–44% |
| Burnley Win to Nil | ~1–3% |
Chelsea vs Burnley Correct Score Predictions Probability
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 2–0 Burnley | 26–28% |
| Chelsea 3–0 Burnley | 23–25% |
| Chelsea 3–1 Burnley | 18–20% |
| Chelsea 2–1 Burnley | 15–17% |
| Chelsea 1–0 Burnley | 11–13% |
| Chelsea 4–0 Burnley | 10–12% |
| Chelsea 4–1 Burnley | 9–11% |
| Chelsea 5–0 Burnley | 7–9% |
| Chelsea 5–1 Burnley | 6–8% |
| Chelsea 1–1 Burnley | 4–6% |
| Chelsea 2–2 Burnley | 3–5% |
| Chelsea 0–0 Burnley | 2–3% |
| Chelsea 0-1 Burnley | 1–2% |
| Chelsea 1–2 Burnley | 1–2% |
My Picks
| Chelsea Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
Chelsea vs Burnley Final Verdict
All indicators favour a Chelsea-controlled outcome at Stamford Bridge. The Blues’ attacking consistency, combined with Burnley’s defensive instability particularly their league-high goals conceded creates a clear imbalance in this matchup. While Burnley have shown flashes of resilience and the ability to compete, sustaining defensive discipline against Chelsea’s offensive depth remains a significant challenge. From a performance and probability perspective, Chelsea are well-positioned to secure victory, with goal markets also drawing attention. Logical considerations include Chelsea win, Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals, and potentially Chelsea win to nil, depending on Burnley’s attacking effectiveness. Overall, the fixture profile strongly leans toward a structured Chelsea performance with a multi-goal scoring environment.
