Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Nottingham Forest to the American Express Stadium in a Premier League clash featuring two sides navigating contrasting pressures. Forest sit 17th, hovering just above the relegation zone, while Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton occupy 14th, aiming to stabilise their league form.
Brighton arrive with renewed confidence following a composed 0–2 away victory over Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, a performance that highlighted defensive organisation and clinical finishing. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking 0–1 home defeat to Liverpool, conceding a dramatic stoppage-time goal.
The most recent head-to-head meeting favoured Brighton, who secured a controlled 0–2 win at the City Ground. That result reflected Brighton’s ability to manage tempo and capitalise on key moments.
The 7-0 thrashing at the City Ground
One of the most striking recent meetings saw Nottingham Forest dismantle Brighton 7-0 during the 2024–25 Premier League season at the City Ground. The match represented Brighton’s heaviest defeat under Fabian Hürzeler, with Chris Wood delivering a memorable hat-trick. That extraordinary result remains a statistical and psychological anomaly rather than a recurring pattern.
Key Facts:
1. Nottingham Forest have never won at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League, despite previous success in Championship meetings.
2. Interestingly, Forest have recorded more victories away from home than at the City Ground this season, highlighting their counter-attacking threat on the road.
Brighton are likely to control possession, while Forest may prioritise defensive discipline and transitional opportunities.
Can Brighton convert territorial dominance into points, or will Forest produce another disruptive away performance?
Can Nottingham Forest Avoid Relegation?
Nottingham Forest’s fight for Premier League survival has entered a decisive phase. With Vítor Pereira stepping into the managerial role under the ownership of Evangelos Marinakis, the club faces a demanding schedule and limited margin for error. Pereira’s arrival signals a tactical reset, yet the challenge ahead remains steep given Forest’s league position and fixture difficulty.
Pereira’s tenure began with an eye-catching 0–3 away victory over Fenerbahçe in European competition a result that briefly injected optimism and showcased defensive organisation combined with efficient transitions. However, domestic reality quickly returned with a narrow 0–1 defeat to Liverpool at the City Ground, underlining the thin margins that often define relegation battles.
Forest’s remaining league fixtures present a formidable test. Encounters against elite opponents such as Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Tottenham Hotspur significantly elevate the difficulty curve. Simultaneously, clashes with structurally stable sides like Newcastle United, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa offer little respite, as these teams typically control matches with greater consistency.
In relegation battles, momentum often shifts quickly, and isolated victories can dramatically alter the outlook. While Nottingham Forest remain under pressure, survival is rarely dictated purely by table position at this stage of the season.
Match Odds Prediction
| Market | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.16 | 23/20 | +116 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3.65 | 13/5 | +265 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 13/5 | +265 |
Brighton Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Brentford 0–2 Brighton
- Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton
- Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace
- Brighton 1–1 Everton
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton
Record: 1 Win • 1 Draw • 3 Losses
Nottingham Forest Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Wolves
- Leeds 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest
Record: 1 Win • 2 Draws • 2 Losses
Brighton this season statistics
Played 27
• Won 8
• Drawn 10
• Lost 9
Brighton home form this season
Played 13
• Won 5
• Drawn 6
• Lost 2
Nottingham Forest this season statistics
Played 27
• Won 7
• Drawn 6
• Lost 14
Nottingham Forest away home form this season
Played 13
• Won 4
• Drawn 2
• Lost 7
Head-to-Head – Last 5 PL Meetings
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton (Nov 2025)
- Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton (Feb 2025)
- Brighton 2–2 Nottingham Forest
- Brighton 1–0 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton
Brighton: 3 Wins
Nottingham Forest: 1 Win
Draws: 1
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Brighton goals this season
Played 27
Scored 36 • Conceded 34
- xG Scored per Match: 1.33
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.26
Brighton home goals this season
Played 13
Scored 20 • Conceded 14
- xG Scored per Match: 1.54
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.08
Nottingham Forest goals this season
Played 27
Scored 25 • Conceded 39
- xG Scored per Match: 0.93
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.44
Nottingham Forest away goals this season
Played 13
Scored 12 • Conceded 20
- xG Scored per Match: 0.92
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.54
Head-to-Head Recent Goal Trends
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton
- Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton
- Brighton 2–2 Nottingham Forest
- Brighton 1–0 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Market | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.74 | 8/11 | -135 |
| No | 2.32 | 11/8 | +132 |
Brighton
Played 27
Clean Sheets: 6
Failed to Score: 6
Brighton at the Amex
Played 13
Clean Sheets: 2
Failed to Score: 2
Nottingham Forest
Played 27
Clean Sheets: 6
Failed to Score: 13
Nottingham Forest away
Played 13
Clean Sheets: 3
Failed to Score: 6
Head-to-Head Trend (Last 5 Meetings)
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton
- Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton
- Brighton 2–2 Nottingham Forest
- Brighton 1–0 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Brighton Win | 44–48% |
| Draw | 26–30% |
| Nottingham Forest Win | 22–26% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 95–97% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72–76% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50–55% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45–50% |
| BTTS – Yes | 52–56% |
| BTTS – No | 44–48% |
| Brighton Win to Nil | 16–20% |
| Nottingham Win to Nil | 10–14% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Brighton 2–0 Nottingham Forest | 52% |
| Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest | 46% |
| Brighton 1–0 Nottingham Forest | 41% |
| Brighton 1–1 Nottingham Forest | 54% |
| Brighton 3–0 Nottingham Forest | 28% |
| Brighton 3–1 Nottingham Forest | 26% |
| Brighton 1–2 Nottingham Forest | 22% |
| Goalless Draw (0–0) | 48% |
My Picks
| Brighton Win or Draw |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Brighton appear slightly better positioned to control the outcome at the Amex Stadium. Their structured possession play, combined with home advantage and recent defensive stability, provides a measurable edge against a Nottingham Forest side operating under relegation pressure. While Forest’s away record suggests they are capable of producing resilient, counter-attacking performances, their attacking inconsistency and defensive fragility remain persistent concerns particularly against teams that dominate territory and chance creation. The fixture profile points toward a controlled Brighton performance, likely shaped by patience and game management rather than sustained end-to-end volatility. From a prediction and betting perspective, logical considerations include Brighton win (moderate confidence), Brighton win or draw (safer angle), and moderate goals markets depending on match tempo. Overall probability leans toward Brighton capitalising on home conditions in what should remain a competitive but tactically contained contest.
