Liverpool head into this crucial Premier League fixture sitting sixth in the table with 45 points from 27 matches as they continue their push for a Champions League place. They welcome West Ham to Anfield knowing that anything less than three points would seriously damage their top-four ambitions. West Ham, meanwhile, arrive in 18th position with 25 points, two behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, and are fighting to escape the relegation zone. Liverpool come into this match on the back of a hard-fought 1–0 victory away at Forest, where a late strike from Alexis Mac Allister proved decisive. West Ham, in contrast, were held to a goalless draw by AFC Bournemouth in their previous outing.
Historically, this fixture heavily favors Liverpool. In the last 33 meetings between the sides, Liverpool have won 22, drawn five, and lost six. At Anfield, the dominance has been even more pronounced, with West Ham managing just one win there since 2015. Their most recent head-to-head ended in a 2–0 victory for Liverpool at the London Stadium, with goals coming in the second half and West Ham reduced to ten men late in the match. On paper, Liverpool clearly hold the advantage.
However, the broader picture under Arne Slot tells a more complicated story. After winning the title in his first season, expectations were naturally high, but the current campaign has been inconsistent. A recent home defeat to Manchester City exposed vulnerabilities, and Liverpool have already suffered three home losses this season compared to just one across the previous two campaigns combined. Anfield has not been the fortress it once was, and that inconsistency is why they find themselves chasing rather than leading.
Can Liverpool Qualify for Champions League ?
To realistically secure a Champions League spot, Liverpool likely need to reach around 70 points, meaning they must win at least seven or eight of their remaining matches. That leaves little room for slip-ups, especially against relegation-threatened teams. Tactically, Liverpool should dominate possession, with Mac Allister controlling the tempo in midfield, while West Ham are expected to sit deep and look to counterattack under pressure.
This match is more than just another league game; it is a test of Liverpool’s mentality and consistency. If they can reestablish control at Anfield and consistently take points against lower-table sides, a top-four finish remains achievable. If not, they risk finishing fifth or sixth in what has become a season of mixed emotions.
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.46 | 4/9 | -217 |
| Draw | 5.3 | 9/2 | +430 |
| West Ham | 7.4 | 13/2 | +640 |
Liverpool (Last 5 PL Games)
- 0–1 vs Nottingham Forest (W)
- 0–1 vs Sunderland AFC (W)
- 1–2 vs Manchester City (L)
- 4–1 vs Newcastle United (W)
- 3–2 vs AFC Bournemouth (L)
West Ham United (Last 5 PL Games)
- 0–0 vs AFC Bournemouth (D)
- 1–1 vs Manchester United (D)
- 0–2 vs Burnley F.C. (W)
- 3–2 vs Chelsea F.C. (L)
- 3–1 vs Sunderland AFC (W)
Liverpool this season statistics
- Played 27: 13W – 6D – 8L
- Home: 7W – 3D – 3L
West Ham this season statistics
- Played 27: 6W – 7D – 14L
- Away: 3W – 4D – 6L
Head-to-Head Trend (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–1 West Ham
- West Ham 0–5 Liverpool
- West Ham 2–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 West Ham
Liverpool: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
Clear dominance.
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Liverpool goals this season
- Scored: 42 (1.55 per game)
- Conceded: 35 (1.30 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.56
- xG conceded: ~1.30
Liverpool at Home goals this season
- Scored: 21 (1.62 per game)
- Conceded: 14 (1.08 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.62
- xG conceded: ~1.08
West Ham United goals this season
- Scored: 32 (1.18 per game)
- Conceded: 49 (1.81 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.19
- xG conceded: ~1.81
West Ham United away goals this season
- Scored: 15 (1.15 per game)
- Conceded: 22 (1.69 per game)
- xG scored: ~ 1.15
- xG conceded: ~1.69
Head-to-Head Trend (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–1 West Ham
- West Ham 0–5 Liverpool
- West Ham 2–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 West Ham
That’s 17 total goals in 5 matches 3.4 goals per game average.
Three of those five went over 2.5 goals comfortably.
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Market | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 | 8/11 | -143 |
| No | 2.40 | 7/5 | +140 |
Liverpool Scoring & Clean Sheet Profile
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 4
At Anfield (13 Games)
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 2
West Ham Scoring & Clean Sheet Profile
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 9
Away (13 Games)
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 4
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–1 West Ham
- West Ham 0–5 Liverpool
- West Ham 2–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 West Ham
BTTS landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings. Liverpool have dominated results (4 wins, 1 draw), but West Ham have managed to score in three of those games.
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market / Selection | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 68% |
| Draw | 18% |
| West Ham Win | 14% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 35% |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% |
| BTTS – Yes | 55% |
| BTTS – No | 45% |
| Liverpool & Over 2.5 | 44% |
| Liverpool & BTTS Yes | 38% |
| Liverpool & BTTS No | 30% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 2–1 West Ham | 67% |
| Liverpool 2–0 West Ham | 75% |
| Liverpool 3–1 West Ham | 63% |
| Liverpool 1–0 West Ham | 41% |
| Liverpool 3–0 West Ham | 59% |
| 1–1 Draw | 46% |
| West Ham 1–0 Liverpool | 15% |
| West Ham 2–1 Liverpool | 4% |
| Liverpool 4–1 West Ham | 34% |
| West Ham 2–0 Liverpool | 3% |
My Picks
| Liverpool Win or Draw |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
All factors considered, Liverpool enter this fixture as deserved favorites, but not without pressure. Their superior head-to-head record, stronger squad depth, and home advantage at Anfield give them the edge, especially against a West Ham side struggling near the relegation zone. However, Liverpool’s recent inconsistency particularly at home means this is unlikely to be a routine victory. If they impose early control, maintain midfield dominance and avoid defensive lapses, they should secure the three points. West Ham’s best chance lies in disciplined defending and capitalizing on counterattacks, but over 90 minutes, Liverpool’s quality and urgency in the Champions League race should prove decisive. Expect a competitive contest, with Liverpool narrowly prevailing and keeping their top-four hopes alive.
