Everton return home full of belief after a dramatic 3-2 victory over Newcastle United at St James’ Park, a result that highlighted the growing resilience in David Moyes’ side. Now sitting comfortably in eighth place, Everton are no longer looking over their shoulders but instead aiming to solidify a top-half finish. Interestingly, their away form has been stronger than their performances at home, so this fixture presents an opportunity to balance that narrative at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Burnley arrive wounded after a chaotic 4-3 defeat to Brentford. Conceding three first-half goals, fighting back to 3-3, having two goals disallowed, and then losing in stoppage time reflects both their attacking spirit and defensive vulnerability. Scott Parker’s side are deep in the relegation battle and every missed opportunity now carries greater weight. Their inability to close games or maintain defensive concentration in key moments has been a recurring issue throughout the season.
Will Everton beat Burnley?
Historically, this fixture at Everton’s home ground has heavily favored the Toffees. The last meeting on Merseyside ended in a narrow 1-0 win, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring and Burnley reduced to ten men after Dara O’Shea’s red card. That match, during the 2023–24 season, saw Sean Dyche managing Everton and Vincent Kompany in charge of Burnley before their relegation to the Championship. With no draws in the last nine home head-to-head meetings and Everton winning seven of them, the trend strongly leans toward the hosts.
On current form, squad depth, and historical dominance at home in this fixture, Everton hold the advantage. Burnley’s urgency may create moments, but unless they tighten defensively and improve discipline, it is difficult to see them controlling the game over ninety minutes.
Match Facts
• Everton: 8th place – 40 points
• Burnley: 19th place – 19 points
• Last 9 H2H at Everton’s home: 7 Everton wins, 2 Burnley wins, 0 draws
• Everton have won 7 away games this season compared to 4 at home
• Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium
• Referee – Tim Robinson
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.63 | 8/13 | -159 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 16/5 | +320 |
| Burnley | 6.40 | 11/2 | +540 |
Everton (Last 5 PL Games)
- 3–2 vs Newcastle United
- 0–1 vs Manchester United
- 1–2 vs AFC Bournemouth
- 2–1 vs Fulham F.C.
- 1–1 vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Burnley (Last 5 PL Games)
- 3–4 vs Brentford F.C.
- 1–1 vs Chelsea F.C.
- 3–2 vs Crystal Palace F.C.
- 0–2 vs West Ham United
- 0–3 vs Sunderland AFC
Everton this season statistics
- 11W – 7D – 10L
Everton at Hill Dickinson
- 4W – 4D – 6L
Burnley this season statistics
- 4W – 7D – 17L
Burnley away
- 2W – 3D – 9L
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Burnley 0–0 Everton
- Everton 1–0 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Everton
- Burnley 3–2 Everton
- Everton 3–1 Burnley
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Everton goals this season
- Scored: 32 (1.14 per game)
- Conceded: 33 (1.18 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.14
- xG conceded: ~1.18
At Home
- Scored: 16 (1.14 per game)
- Conceded: 19 (1.36 per game)
- xG conceded: ~1.36
Burnley goals this season
- Scored: 32 (1.14 per game)
- Conceded: 56 (2.00 per game)
- xG conceded: ~2.00
Burnley away
- Scored: 17 (1.21 per game)
- Conceded: 33 (2.36 per game)
- xG conceded: ~2.36
Head-to-Head Trend
- Burnley 0–0 Everton
- Everton 1–0 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Everton
- Burnley 3–2 Everton
- Everton 3–1 Burnley
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Everton | Burnley |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz (injured) | Connor Roberts (injured) |
| Jack Grealish (injured) | Axel Tuanzebe (injured) |
| Marcus Edwards (injured) | |
| Jordan Beyer (injured) | |
| Josh Cullen (injured) | |
| Mike Trésor (injured) | |
| Armando Broja (injured) | |
| Zeki Amdouni (injured) |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Market | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.99 | 1/1 | -101 |
| No | 1.95 | 10/11 | -105 |
Everton Scoring & Clean Sheet Profile
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 8
At Home (14 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 4
Burnley Scoring & Clean Sheet Profile
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 9
Away
- Clean sheets: 0
- Failed to score: 3
Head-to-Head Trend
- Burnley 0–0 Everton
- Everton 1–0 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Everton
- Burnley 3–2 Everton
- Everton 3–1 Burnley
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market / Selection | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton Win | 61% |
| Draw | 23% |
| Burnley Win | 16% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 29% |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% |
| BTTS – Yes | 51% |
| BTTS – No | 49% |
| Everton & Over 2.5 | 36% |
| Everton Win to Nil | 32% |
| Draw & Under 2.5 | 14% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton 2–0 Burnley | 27% |
| Everton 2–1 Burnley | 25% |
| Everton 1–0 Burnley | 54% |
| 1–1 Draw | 12% |
| Everton 3–0 Burnley | 9% |
| Everton 3–1 Burnley | 8% |
| 0–0 Draw | 47% |
| Everton 0–1 Burnley | 6% |
| Everton 1–2 Burnley | 6% |
| Everton 1–0 Burnley | 4% |
My Picks
| Everton Win or Draw |
Final Verdict
Everything about this matchup points toward Everton being in control of their own outcome. Their recent win at St James’ Park was not just about three points it was about maturity, composure, and finishing key moments under pressure. Burnley, by contrast, continue to show heart but not defensive stability, and that imbalance has cost them repeatedly this season. While relegation urgency can make teams dangerous, it rarely compensates for structural flaws over ninety minutes. With home advantage, superior squad balance, and a strong historical edge in this fixture, Everton should have enough quality to dictate tempo and capitalize on Burnley’s defensive lapses. Expect a competitive spell from the visitors, but over the full match, Everton’s organization and efficiency make them clear favorites to secure the points.
