Brighton welcome league leaders Arsenal to the Amex Stadium following a positive 2–1 home victory over Nottingham Forest. The Seagulls have generally been strong on home soil this season, losing only twice a dramatic 4–3 defeat to Aston Villa and a narrow 1–0 loss to Crystal Palace. Their ability to remain competitive in most matches has helped them maintain stability in mid-table, although their attacking output has not always been consistent against stronger opposition.
Arsenal arrive with strong momentum after winning a London derby against Chelsea 2–1 at the Emirates Stadium. The league leaders have been in excellent attacking form and continue to show the balance between offensive creativity and defensive organisation that has kept them at the top of the table. The last meeting between the sides ended in a 2–1 victory for Arsenal, further highlighting their recent advantage in this matchup.
Can Brighton Beat Arsenal ?
Historically, Brighton have struggled to consistently defeat Arsenal at the Amex. In the last ten league meetings at the stadium, Brighton have only won twice both 2–1 victories in 2018 and 2020. Arsenal have won five of those encounters while three ended in draws. Considering the current standings and form, Arsenal appear to hold the upper hand again. Brighton’s strong home record means they are capable of making the match competitive, but Arsenal’s attacking momentum and overall consistency make them difficult opponents to overcome even on the road.
Match Facts
• Arsenal – 1st place – 64 points
• Brighton – 12th place – 37 points
• Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches
• Brighton have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches
• Referee – Chris Kavanagh
• Venue – American Express Stadium
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 5.60 | 9/2 | +460 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 16/5 | +320 |
| Arsenal | 1.69 | 4/6 | -145 |
Brighton (Last 5 PL Games)
- Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest
- Brentford 0–2 Brighton
- Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton
- Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace
- Brighton 1–1 Everton
Arsenal (Last 5 PL Games)
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
- Tottenham 1–4 Arsenal
- Wolves 2–2 Arsenal
- Brentford 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland
Brighton this season statistics
- 9 Wins – 10 Draws – 9 Losse
Home Record
- 6 Wins – 6 Draws – 2 Losses
Arsenal this season statistics
- 19 Wins – 7 Draws – 3 Losses
Away Record
- 8 Wins – 5 Draws – 2 Losses
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–1 Brighton
- Brighton 0–3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Brighton goals this season
- 38 scored
- 35 conceded
- 1.36 xG created per match
- 1.25 xG conceded per match
Brighton home goals this season
- 22 scored
- 15 conceded
- 1.57 xG created
- 1.07 xG concede
Arsenal goals this season
- 58 scored
- 22 conceded
- 2.00 xG created
- 0.76 xG conceded
Arsenal Away goals this season
- 25 scored
- 13 conceded
- 1.67 xG created
- 0.87 xG conceded
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–1 Brighton
- Brighton 0–3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Yasin Ayari (Doubtful) | Ben White (Knock) |
| Adam Webster | Declan Rice (Discomfort) |
| Tzimas | Max Dowman |
| Martin Ødegaard | |
| Mikel Merino |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Outcome | Decimal | Fractio | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.96 | 10/11 | -104 |
| No | 1.99 | 10/11 | -10 |
Brighton scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 6 in 28
- Failed to score: 6 in 28
Brighton at Home
- Clean sheets: 2 in 14
- Failed to score: 2 in 1
Arsenal scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 13 in 29
- Failed to score: 3 in 29
Arsenal Away
- Clean sheets: 5 in 15
- Failed to score: 3 in 15
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–1 Brighton
- Brighton 0–3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Brighton Win | 20% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Arsenal Win | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% |
| BTTS – Yes | 54% |
| BTTS – No | 46% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brighton 1–2 Arsenal | 28% |
| Brighton 1–1 Arsenal | 34% |
| Brighton 0–2 Arsenal | 42% |
| Brighton 2–2 Arsenal | 19% |
| Brighton 0–1 Arsenal | 58% |
| Brighton 2–1 Arsenal | 17% |
| Brighton 0–0 Arsenal | 16% |
| Brighton 1–3 Arsenal | 26% |
| Brighton 3–2 Arsenal | 15% |
| Brighton 3–1 Arsenal | 9% |
My Picks
| Arsenal Win or Draw |
Final Verdict
Overall, the matchup slightly favors Arsenal FC despite the challenge of playing away at the Amex Stadium. Brighton & Hove Albion have been reliable at home and rarely collapse in front of their own supporters, which should allow them to remain competitive for large periods of the match. However, Arsenal’s superior attacking form, stronger defensive structure, and overall consistency across the season give them the clearer edge. Brighton may create moments and keep the game tight, but if Arsenal maintain their current momentum and control of possession, they are the more likely side to secure the points, most plausibly through a narrow victory rather than a dominant win.
