Win Probability
Head to Head (Last 5 PL Fixtures)
| Match Results |
|---|
| Brighton 2-0 Burnley |
| Burnley 1-1 Brighton |
| Brighton 1-1 Burnley |
| Brighton 0-3 Burnley |
| Burnley 1-2 Brighton |
| Match Details |
|---|
| Fixture: Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion |
| Competition: Premier League – Round 32 |
| Date: Saturday, 12 April 2026 |
| Time: 3:00 pm UK Time |
| Venue: Turf Moor |
| Burnley Manager: Scott Parker |
| Brighton Manager: Fabian Hurzeler |
| Burnley Position: 19th (Relegation Zone) |
| Brighton Position: 10th |
| Referee: Thomas Bramall |
| Head-to-Head (Last 21): Burnley – 5 Wins | Draw – 10 | Brighton – 6 Wins |
Match Odds & Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 4.9 | 4/1 | 390 |
| Draw | 4.1 | 16/5 | 310 |
| Brighton | 1.78 | 4/5 | -128 |
Burnley find themselves in a desperate situation as they sit 19th in the table heading into Matchweek 32, hosting Brighton & Hove Albion at Turf Moor. With just six games remaining, Burnley are running out of time to save their season. They come into this match after a 3-1 defeat away to Fulham at Craven Cottage, a result that further damaged their survival hopes.
In contrast, Brighton arrive with confidence after a strong 2-1 home win over Liverpool, where Danny Welbeck scored a brace to secure all three points. That victory highlights Brighton’s ability to compete against top sides and shows the quality gap between these two teams. Currently sitting 13th, Brighton are in a comfortable mid-table position with little pressure, allowing them to play freely.
Looking at recent head-to-head meetings, Brighton have had the upper hand. They won the last encounter 2-0 at the Amex Stadium, showing control and efficiency. However, the last meeting at Turf Moor ended in a 1-1 draw back in April 2024, during the same season Burnley were relegated to the Championship. That result suggests Burnley can still be competitive at home, even against stronger opposition.
The bigger picture, however, is concerning for Burnley. They are 10 points behind 17th place with only six games remaining, making survival highly unlikely. While it is still mathematically possible, it would require not only consistent wins from Burnley but also favourable results from other teams around them. Brighton, on the other hand, have stability, better form, and far less pressure, which often makes them more dangerous in these types of fixtures.
Predicted Line Up
Burnley Formation 4-2-3-1
Brighton Formation 4-2-3-1
My Picks
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Over/Under Goals Probability
Anytime Goalscorer Probability
Burnley Anytime Goalscorer Predictions
Brighton Anytime Goalscorer Predictions
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Prediction & Odds
| Market | Decimal | Fractional | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.77 | 4/5 | -130 |
| No | 2.28 | 5/4 | 128 |
Final Verdict
This match feels like one where motivation alone may not be enough for Burnley. While they will likely show urgency and fight at home, the gap in quality and confidence between the two sides is clear. Brighton’s recent performance against Liverpool shows they have the attacking threat and composure to handle pressure, whereas Burnley continue to struggle defensively and lack consistency. Even with Turf Moor advantage, Burnley look vulnerable, and unless they produce something exceptional, Brighton should have enough control to take the points. Expect a competitive effort from Burnley, but overall, Brighton are more likely to come out on top.
