Bournemouth come into this fixture with confidence after a strong 2–0 away victory over Wolves at Molineux in their last Premier League outing. The Cherries showed solid organisation and clinical finishing, a performance that will encourage them as they return to home soil at the Vitality Stadium.
Currently sitting 12th in the table, Bournemouth have enjoyed a relatively stable season, comfortably clear of relegation worries and capable of troubling stronger sides, especially in front of their home fans.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, arrive after a frustrating 1–0 home defeat to Brentford at Villa Park. The match was shaped by a controversial red card shown to Kevin Schade late in the first half following a sliding challenge on Matty Cash — a decision many felt was harsh.
Just moments after the dismissal, Dango Ouattara struck in stoppage time (45+1), giving Brentford the lead. In the second half, Brentford produced a disciplined defensive performance with ten men, successfully holding on for all three points.
Despite that setback, Villa remain flying high in 3rd place in the Premier League, firmly in the Champions League race.
The most recent meeting between these sides ended in a dominant 4–0 victory for Aston Villa at Villa Park.
Villa controlled the match throughout, and Emiliano Martínez even saved a penalty taken by Antoine Semenyo, underlining Villa’s authority in that encounter.
This clash sets up an interesting contrast:
• Bournemouth coming off a confident away win and looking to make home advantage count
• Aston Villa eager to bounce back after a frustrating defeat but still one of the league’s strongest sides this season
With Villa pushing for a top-four finish and Bournemouth aiming to climb the mid-table standings, both teams have plenty to play for.
👉 Can Bournemouth get their revenge at the Vitality Stadium, or will Unai Emery’s tactical approach once again frustrate the Cherries and guide Villa to another victory?
Odds Analysis
Bournemouth – 2.88
Draw – 3.65
Aston Villa – 2.56
Bookmakers see this as a very balanced contest, with Aston Villa slight favourites due to their strong season and outstanding away form. However, Bournemouth’s excellent recent performances and home strength keep the odds close.
Recent Form – Bournemouth
- Wolves 0–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool
- Brighton 1–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 3–2 Tottenham
- Bournemouth 2–3 Arsenal
Bournemouth are in excellent form, recording 3 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 defeat in their last five matches. They’ve beaten strong sides such as Liverpool and Tottenham, while scoring in every game during this run.
👉 Their attack looks sharp and confidence is high heading into this fixture.
Recent Form – Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford
- Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–1 Everton
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
Villa have produced 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games. While they remain solid defensively, they have failed to score in three matches, showing some recent attacking inconsistency.
👉 Form has been slightly mixed despite their overall quality.
Season Performance
Bournemouth
- Played: 24
- Won: 8
- Drawn: 9
- Lost: 7
Bournemouth have been hard to beat this season, drawing many close games and losing only seven times. Their consistency has kept them competitive in mid-table.
Bournemouth – Home Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 2
At the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth are very strong, winning half of their home matches and rarely losing.
👉 Home advantage plays a big role for the Cherries.
Aston Villa
- Played: 24
- Won: 14
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 6
Villa are enjoying an excellent campaign, sitting among the league’s strongest teams with 14 victories.
👉 They remain serious top-four contenders.
Aston Villa – Away Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 3
- Lost: 3
Villa’s away form has been outstanding, winning 8 of 11 matches on the road.
👉 This makes them extremely dangerous visitors.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth (9 November 2025)
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa (10 May 2025)
- Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth (26 October 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth (21 April 2024)
- Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa (3 December 2023)
Aston Villa have dominated recent meetings, winning three of the last five, with two draws. Bournemouth have not beaten Villa in this period.
👉 Villa often score multiple goals in this matchup.
Overall Odds Verdict
- Bournemouth: strong recent form + solid home performances
- Aston Villa: superior season quality + excellent away record + strong H2H
While Bournemouth are playing with confidence and are tough at home, Aston Villa’s consistency on the road and dominance in recent head-to-head clashes give them a slight edge.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Bournemouth – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 40
- Conceded: 43
- xG scored per match: 1.7
- xG conceded per match: 1.8
Bournemouth matches average around 3.5 total goals per game, showing an open and attacking approach but with defensive weaknesses.
👉 Most of their fixtures tend to be high-scoring.
Bournemouth – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 19
- Conceded: 13
- xG scored per match: 1.6
- xG conceded per match: 1.1
At home, Bournemouth are more balanced, with around 2.7 goals per match.
👉 Home games are competitive but slightly tighter than their away fixtures.
Aston Villa – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 35
- Conceded: 26
- xG scored per match: 1.5
- xG conceded per match: 1.1
Villa average about 2.5 total goals per game. Their solid defence often keeps matches under control, with many games staying below three goals.
👉 Villa fixtures are usually medium scoring rather than wild.
Aston Villa – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 17
- Conceded: 16
- xG scored per match: 1.4
- xG conceded per match: 1.3
Away from home, Villa games open up slightly, averaging close to 2.8 goals per match.
👉 Away fixtures lean more toward goals compared to their home games.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 PL Matches)
- Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth (9 November 2025)
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa (10 May 2025)
- Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth (26 October 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth (21 April 2024)
- Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa (3 December 2023)
Key pattern:
- 3 of the last 5 meetings produced 3+ goals
- Villa often score freely in this matchup
- Bournemouth usually contribute goals, especially at home
👉 Head-to-head history supports moderate-to-high scoring games.
Over/Under Final Verdict
- Bournemouth play open football and concede often
- Aston Villa are more controlled but open up away from home
- H2H history leans toward goals
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Eli Junior Kroupi (8G / 0A) | 40% |
| Evanilson (5G / 0A) | 30% |
| Alex Scott (2G / 1A) | 22% |
| Morgan Rogers (7G / 5A) | 45% |
| Emiliano Buendía (5G / 2A) | 34% |
| Matty Cash (3G / 2A) | 26% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS – Yes: 1.60
BTTS – No: 2.58
Bookmakers strongly favour both teams getting on the scoresheet — and the underlying numbers back that up.
Bournemouth – BTTS Trends
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 6
- Failed to score: 4
Bournemouth score in most matches and rarely go blank. While their defence isn’t strong, their attack is very consistent.
👉 BTTS appears frequently in Bournemouth games.
Bournemouth – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 3
At the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth rarely shut teams out and usually find the net themselves.
👉 Home fixtures clearly increase the chance of BTTS Yes.
Aston Villa – BTTS Trends
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 7
Villa have a solid defence at times but have also struggled to score in several matches, creating mixed BTTS results.
👉 BTTS happens fairly often, but not as consistently as Bournemouth.
✈️ Aston Villa – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 4
Away from home, Villa rarely keep clean sheets and their games tend to open up.
👉 Away fixtures strongly lean toward both teams scoring.
Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth (9 November 2025)
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa (10 May 2025)
- Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth (26 October 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth (21 April 2024)
- Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa (3 December 2023)
BTTS occurred in 4 of the last 5 meetings, with only one clean-sheet result.
👉 Head-to-head history strongly supports BTTS Yes.
📌 BTTS Final Verdict
- Bournemouth usually score, especially at home
- Aston Villa concede often away from home
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 33% |
| Draw | 28% |
| Aston Villa Win | 39% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 35% |
| BTTS – Yes | 70% |
| BTTS – No | 30% |
| Bournemouth Clean Sheet | 18% |
| Aston Villa Clean Sheet | 15% |
| Morgan Rogers (Goal/Assist) | 45% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi (Goal/Assist) | 40% |
| Emiliano Buendía (Goal/Assist) | 34% |
| Evanilson (Goal/Assist) | 30% |
| Matty Cash (Goal/Assist) | 26% |
| Alex Scott (Goal/Assist) | 22% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 0.5 Total Goals |
| Over 1.5 Total Goals |
Final Verdict
Bournemouth head into this matchup with momentum and strong home confidence, but they face a tough test against a high-quality Aston Villa side that has been one of the league’s most consistent performers this season. While the Cherries are capable of causing problems at the Vitality Stadium, Villa’s superior overall quality, excellent away form, and recent dominance in this fixture give them a slight edge. The visitors will be eager to respond after their setback against Brentford and should have enough tactical control to manage Bournemouth’s attacking threat. Overall, this looks set to be a competitive and entertaining contest, but Aston Villa appear better positioned to avoid defeat and possibly take all three points in a close game.
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