Bournemouth return to home soil at the Vitality Stadium after a 1–1 draw away at the Amex, and they now face a major test as they welcome Liverpool in the Premier League. The Cherries sitting safely clear of the relegation zone with a 10-point gap, allowing them to approach this fixture with confidence rather than desperation.
Liverpool, meanwhile, arrive with a very mixed domestic run. The Reds were held to a 1–1 draw at Anfield by Burnley in their last league outing, continuing a frustrating trend of dropped points. In fact, Liverpool have drawn four of their last five Premier League matches, with their only win coming against bottom-placed Wolves in a 2–1 victory. Despite their struggles in the league, Liverpool showed their quality in Europe, producing a commanding 3–0 away win over Marseille in the Champions League during midweek a result that may give the squad a major confidence boost.
The most recent meeting between these two sides came on the opening day of the season at Anfield, where Liverpool won an entertaining contest 4–2. That match highlighted Liverpool’s attacking firepower, but also exposed defensive weaknesses something Bournemouth will look to exploit at home. Andoni Iraola’s side have been capable of causing problems for big teams at the Vitality, and with Liverpool’s Premier League form still inconsistent, this fixture may not be as one-sided as it appears on paper.
Liverpool currently sit 4th in the table, holding a Champions League spot, but they cannot afford to keep drawing matches if they want to stay ahead of the chasing pack. Bournemouth, with less pressure on them, may attempt to play with freedom and intensity, aiming to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm and take advantage of any defensive lapses.
The key question remains: Can Bournemouth use their home advantage to shock Liverpool, or will the Reds finally turn their domestic draws into a convincing league win and take all three points from the Vitality Stadium?
Odds Analysis
Match Odds
- Bournemouth: 3.95
- Liverpool: 1.97
- Draw: 4.10
The odds clearly favour Liverpool, but not as heavily as you’d expect for a top-four side playing a mid-table team. This shows bookmakers are factoring in Liverpool’s inconsistent away form and their recent habit of drawing matches. Bournemouth are priced as underdogs, but the home advantage at the Vitality keeps the contest more balanced than the table suggests.
Recent Form – Last 5 Premier League Matches
Bournemouth
- Brighton 1–1 Bournemouth (A)
- Bournemouth 3–2 Tottenham (H)
- Bournemouth 2–3 Arsenal (H)
- Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth (A)
- Brentford 4–1 Bournemouth (A)
Bournemouth have been competitive, especially against big teams, with a home win over Spurs and hard-fought draws away at Brighton and Chelsea. However, defensive issues remain visible, particularly in the heavy defeat to Brentford.
Liverpool
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley (H)
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool (A)
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool (A)
- Liverpool 0–0 Leeds (H)
- Liverpool 2–1 Wolves (H)
Liverpool’s recent league form has been dominated by draws. They have drawn four of their last five Premier League matches, and while they remain difficult to beat, they are struggling to convert chances into wins especially away from home.
Season Stats
Bournemouth (22 matches)
- Won: 6
- Draw: 9
- Lost: 7
Bournemouth at home (11 matches):
- Won: 5
- Draw: 4
- Lost: 2
Bournemouth have been strong at the Vitality, losing only twice in 11 home matches. This makes them a dangerous opponent for any visiting side.
Liverpool (22 matches)
- Won: 10
- Draw: 6
- Lost: 6
Liverpool away (11 matches):
- Won: 4
- Draw: 3
- Lost: 4
Liverpool’s away form is inconsistent, with the same number of away losses as wins. This is the biggest reason Bournemouth have a realistic chance of taking points.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth
Liverpool have dominated this fixture historically, winning all five of the last Premier League meetings and scoring heavily in most of them. Bournemouth have shown they can score against Liverpool (4–2 opening day), but defensively they have struggled to contain them in this matchup.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Bournemouth (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 35
- Conceded: 41
- xG scored per match: 1.59
- xG conceded per match: 1.86
✅ Bournemouth matches are generally high-scoring because they concede a lot.
Bournemouth (Home – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 16
- Conceded: 11
- xG scored per match (home): 1.45
- xG conceded per match (home): 1.00
✅ At home Bournemouth are more stable defensively, conceding only 1 per match.
Liverpool (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 33
- Conceded: 29
- xG scored per match: 1.50
- xG conceded per match: 1.32
✅ Liverpool are balanced, but they still concede regularly.
Liverpool (Away – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 17
- Conceded: 18
- xG scored per match (away): 1.55
- xG conceded per match (away): 1.64
✅ Away games are more open — Liverpool concede 1.6 per away match, which supports goals.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth
H2H Goal Stats (Last 5)
- Total goals: (6 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 4) = 19 goals
- Average goals per match: 3.80 goals
✅ H2H strongly supports Over 2.5 goals, even Over 3.5 goals potential.
Final Over/Under Market Summary
- Over 1.5 goals → very strong trend ✅
- Over 2.5 goals → strong ✅ (H2H + Bournemouth concede rate)
- Over 3.5 goals → possible ⚠️ (depends on Liverpool finishing
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G/A) | Goal or Assist Probability |
|---|---|
| Eli Junior Kroupi (7G) | 36% |
| Marcus Tavernier (5G, 3A) | 40% |
| Evanilson (4G) | 28% |
| Marcos Senesi (0G, 4A) | 22% |
| Hugo Ekitike (8G, 2A) | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo (5G, 3A) | 41% |
| Ryan Gravenberch (4G, 2A) | 33% |
| Florian Wirtz (3G, 1A) | 24% |
BTTS Odds
- Yes – 1.61
- No – 2.58
The odds heavily favour BTTS Yes, meaning bookmakers expect both teams to score.
Bournemouth (Season – 22 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 4
Bournemouth (Home – 11 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 3
Liverpool (Season – 22 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 4
Liverpool (Away – 11 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 2
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth ✅ BTTS
- Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool ❌ BTTS
- Liverpool 3–0 Bournemouth ❌ BTTS
- Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool ❌ BTTS
- Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth ✅ BTTS
Key Facts
- Liverpool dominance in H2H (Premier League):
In the last 17 Premier League head-to-head meetings, Liverpool have won 14 times, while Bournemouth have managed only 2 wins, with one draw (2–2) coming back in 2017. - Goals guaranteed in this matchup: Across the last 21 head-to-head meetings in all competitions, not a single match has finished 0–0, showing this fixture almost always produces goals.
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 55% |
| Draw | 23% |
| Bournemouth Win | 22% |
| Liverpool Win or Draw (X2) | 78% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 38% |
| BTTS – Yes | 58% |
| BTTS – No | 42% |
| Liverpool to Score | 83% |
| Bournemouth to Score | 60% |
| Liverpool Clean Sheet | 33% |
| Bournemouth Clean Sheet | 22% |
My Picks
| My Pick | Market |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | Over/Under Goals |
| BTTS – Yes | Both Teams to Score |
Final Verdict
Bournemouth vs Liverpool looks set up for goals, especially with both sides showing defensive vulnerability this season. Bournemouth are usually competitive at the Vitality and have the ability to score at home, while Liverpool’s away games tend to be more open, with clean sheets not consistent on the road. Head-to-head history strongly favours Liverpool in terms of winning this fixture, but the same history also supports a match where goals arrive rather than a cagey stalemate — notably, there has been no goalless result across a long run of meetings. With Bournemouth needing to be brave at home and Liverpool needing points to stay secure in the top four, the tempo should be high and chances should come at both ends. Overall, the safest angle remains the goals market, with Over 1.5 goals looking very strong, while BTTS Yes has good potential if Bournemouth can take their chances at home.
