Bournemouth welcome Sunderland to the Vitality Stadium in a Premier League Matchweek 28 fixture that carries an interesting historical backdrop. The Black Cats return to the Vitality for the first time in nearly a decade, with their last visit dating back to the 2016–17 season, a campaign that ultimately saw Sunderland relegated.
Bournemouth enter this clash following a disciplined 0–0 draw against West Ham at the London Stadium. While goals were absent, the performance reflected defensive organisation and game control. Sunderland, meanwhile, arrive after a difficult 1–3 home defeat to Fulham, exposing defensive vulnerabilities despite moments of attacking promise.
The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides produced an entertaining contest, with Sunderland securing a 3–2 victory at the Stadium of Light, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.
Both sides remain closely positioned in the table:
• Bournemouth: 8th place – 38 points
• Sunderland: 12th place – 36 points
With just two points separating the teams, this fixture holds clear significance for mid-table positioning and potential upward momentum.
Key Facts
1. Bournemouth have lost only two home matches this season, underlining the Vitality Stadium as a stronghold.
2. Sunderland have suffered seven defeats in thirteen away games, indicating persistent challenges on the road.
Bournemouth’s home profile suggests stability, while Sunderland’s away record introduces volatility.
Can Bournemouth capitalise on their strong home form, or will Sunderland produce a resilient performance capable of disrupting the hosts?
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Odds | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.86 | 5/6 | -116 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 11/4 | +290 |
| Sunderland | 4.60 | 7/2 | +360 |
Bournemouth last 5 Premier League Matches
- West Ham 0–0 Bournemouth
- Everton 1–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa
- Wolves 0–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool
Sunderland last 5 Premier League Matches
- Sunderland 1–3 Fulham
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland
Bournemouth this season statistics
- Played: 27
- Won: 9
- Drawn: 11
- Lost: 7
Bournemouth home form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 2
Sunderland this season statistics
- Played: 27
- Won: 9
- Drawn: 9
- Lost: 9
Sunderland away form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 2
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 7
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth
- Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland
Wins:
Bournemouth 2
Sunderland 2
Draws 1
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Bournemouth goals this season
- Played: 27
- Goals Scored: 43
- Goals Conceded: 45
- xG Scored per Match: 1.59
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.67
Bournemouth home goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 20
- Goals Conceded: 14
- xG Scored per Match: 1.54
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.08
Sunderland goals this season
- Played: 27
- Goals Scored: 28
- Goals Conceded: 33
- xG Scored per Match: 1.04
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.22
Sunderland away goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 6
- Goals Conceded: 20
- xG Scored per Match: 0.46
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.54
Head-to-Head Goals Pattern
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth
- Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Outcome | Odds | Fractional | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 | 4/5 | -125 |
| No | 2.22 | 6/5 | +122 |
Bournemouth BTTS Profile
- Played: 27
- Clean Sheets: 7
- Failed to Score: 5
Bournemouth home
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Failed to Score: 3
Sunderland BTTS Profile
- Played: 27
- Clean Sheets: 8
- Failed to Score: 9
Sunderland Away
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 1
- Failed to Score: 7
Head-to-Head BTTS Pattern
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth
- Sunderland 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland
BTTS – Yes: 3 / 5
BTTS – No: 2 / 5
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | ~50–54% |
| Draw | ~24–27% |
| Sunderland Win | ~19–22% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | ~94–96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | ~74–78% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | ~48–53% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | ~47–52% |
| BTTS – Yes | ~44–48% |
| BTTS – No | ~52–56% |
| Bournemouth Win to Nil | ~18–22% |
| Sunderland Win to Nil | ~7–10% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland | 56% |
| Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland | 62% |
| Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland | 58% |
| Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland | 74% |
| Bournemouth 3–1 Sunderland | 31% |
| Bournemouth 3–0 Sunderland | 43% |
| Bournemouth 1-2 Sunderland | 28% |
| Goalless Draw (0–0) | 46% |
| Bournemouth 0–1 Sunderland | 15% |
My Picks
| Bournemouth Win or Draw |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Bournemouth appear marginally better positioned to secure a positive result at the Vitality Stadium. Their strong home record, combined with improved defensive organisation and recent unbeaten momentum, provides a measurable advantage against a Sunderland side that has struggled for consistency on the road. While Sunderland’s energetic and transition-driven style gives them the capacity to remain competitive, their away vulnerabilities particularly defensive lapses and limited scoring reliability could prove decisive in a fixture likely shaped by control and patience rather than sustained end-to-end chaos. From a prediction and betting perspective, logical considerations include Bournemouth win, goals markets depending on match tempo. Overall, the probability profile leans toward a controlled Bournemouth performance in what should remain a competitive mid-table contest.
