Aston Villa return to Premier League action after an emotional Europa League comeback, where they overturned a two-goal deficit against Salzburg to win 3–2 at Villa Park. That victory highlighted Villa’s resilience and attacking quality, something Unai Emery will be hoping to carry into this league clash against Brentford.
Brentford, meanwhile, come into this fixture after a home defeat to Nottingham Forest, a setback that slowed their push toward the European places. Despite that loss, the Bees have enjoyed a strong season by their standards and currently sit 8th in the Premier League table.
Villa are flying high in 3rd place, level on points with Manchester City (46), firmly in the Champions League race and boasting one of the league’s strongest home records this season.
Recent head-to-head meetings have favoured Brentford. The last Premier League encounter at the Gtech Community Stadium ended in a 1–0 win for Brentford, while an EFL Cup tie at the same venue finished 1–1, with Brentford progressing on penalties 4–2.
The big question ahead of Matchweek 24 can Brentford continue their recent dominance over Villa, or will Aston Villa’s strong home form and momentum from Europe help them secure all three points at Villa Park?
Odds Analysis
Aston Villa – 2.16
Draw – 3.65
Brentford – 3.65
Bookmakers have given Aston Villa a slight advantage for this fixture, mainly due to their strong home form and superior season performance. However, the odds still suggest a competitive contest rather than a one-sided game.
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Aston Villa
- Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–1 Everton
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five matches. They produced strong performances against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest but were unable to take points against Everton and Arsenal. Overall, their recent form has been mixed.
Brentford
- Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland
- Everton 2–4 Brentford
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham
Brentford have also won two matches, drawn one, and lost two in their last five outings. While they showed attacking strength against Sunderland and Everton, they failed to score in three matches, highlighting their inconsistency in front of goal.
Season Performance
Aston Villa
- Played: 23
- Won: 14
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 5
Aston Villa have enjoyed a strong season so far, winning 14 of their 23 league matches and losing only five times. They remain among the stronger sides in the league and regularly compete near the top of the table.
Aston Villa – Home Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 8
- Drawn: 1
- Lost: 2
Villa have been very solid at Villa Park, securing eight wins from eleven home matches. Home advantage has played a key role in their success this season.
Brentford
- Played: 23
- Won: 10
- Drawn: 3
- Lost: 10
Brentford’s campaign has been inconsistent, with as many losses as wins. They have struggled to maintain steady form throughout the season.
Brentford – Away Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 0
- Lost: 8
Brentford have found it difficult on their travels, losing eight of their eleven away matches. Their away form remains a major weakness.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa (23 August 2025)
- Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa (8 March 2025)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford (5 December 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford (6 April 2024)
- Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa (17 December 2023)
Aston Villa have won four of the last five league meetings, with one match ending in a high-scoring draw. Brentford have managed just one victory in this period, showing Villa’s recent dominance in this fixture.
Odds Verdict
Aston Villa’s strong home form, better overall season performance, and positive head-to-head record give them the edge in this matchup. Brentford’s struggles away from home and inconsistent attack further tilt the balance in Villa’s favour.
While recent form for both teams has been mixed, Aston Villa appear well placed to take advantage of home conditions and continue their strong record against Brentford.
👉 The market slightly favours Aston Villa, and based on the statistics, they look the more reliable side going into this clash.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Aston Villa – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 35
- Conceded: 25
- xG per match (scored): 1.52
- xG per match (conceded): 1.09
Aston Villa matches usually produce around 2 to 3 goals per game. They are generally well-balanced, with neither extremely low-scoring nor very high-scoring outcomes being common.
👉 Villa tend to play controlled matches with a moderate goal count.
Aston Villa – Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 18
- Conceded: 9
- xG per match (scored): 1.64
- xG per match (conceded): 0.82
At Villa Park, Aston Villa are defensively strong and often keep games tight. Many of their home wins come with limited goals conceded, commonly finishing in results such as 2–0/2–1.
👉 Home matches are usually controlled rather than open and chaotic.
Brentford – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 35
- Conceded: 32
- xG per match (scored): 1.52
- xG per match (conceded): 1.39
Brentford’s matches often see goals at both ends. Their attacking output is decent, but their defensive record allows opponents plenty of chances.
👉 This leads to fairly goal-heavy games overall.
Brentford – Away Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 12
- Conceded: 20
- xG per match (scored): 1.09
- xG per match (conceded): 1.82
Away from home, Brentford concede heavily and allow many chances. Their away games frequently finish with higher scorelines, such as 2–1, 3–1, or 3–0 defeats.
👉 Away fixtures tend to lean toward higher goal totals.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa (23 August 2025)
- Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa (8 March 2025)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford (5 December 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford (6 April 2024)
- Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa (17 December 2023)
Out of the last five meetings:
- 3 matches finished Over 2.5 goals
- 2 matches finished Under 2.5 goals
👉 Results have been mixed, but slightly leaning toward higher-scoring games.
Over/Under Verdict
- Aston Villa generally control games, especially at home, keeping goals against low.
- Brentford’s away matches often see them concede multiple goals.
- Head-to-head meetings show a slight tendency toward Over 2.5 goals.
👉 Overall, the data suggests a moderate-to-high goal potential, with Over 2.5 goals having a small edge, though Villa’s strong home defence could still keep the scoreline reasonable.
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals/Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins (8G / 1A) | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers (7G / 5A) | 42% |
| Emiliano Buendía (5G / 2A) | 35% |
| Igor Thiago (16G / 1A) | 55% |
| Kevin Schade (6G / 3A) | 38% |
| Dango Ouattara (3G / 0A) | 22% |
BTTS Odds
Yes: 1.74
No: 2.30
The market slightly favours both teams finding the net, but the statistics present a more balanced picture.
Aston Villa – Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 5
Aston Villa have kept a fair number of clean sheets, showing a solid defensive setup. At the same time, they have failed to score in only five matches, indicating a reliable attack.
👉 Villa usually score in most games and are capable of shutting out opponents.
Aston Villa – Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 3
At Villa Park, Villa are defensively strong while still finding the net in most matches. Several of their home wins have come with limited goals conceded, such as 2–0, 2–1, and 3–0 scorelines.
👉 Home matches often favour Villa with controlled performances.
Brentford – Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 7
Brentford have struggled defensively, managing only five clean sheets all season. Their attack has also been inconsistent, failing to score in seven matches.
👉 They frequently concede and do not always find the net themselves.
Brentford – Away Performance
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 6
Away from home, Brentford have been particularly weak. They rarely keep clean sheets and often struggle to score.
👉 Many away matches have been one-sided against them.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa (23 August 2025)
- Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa (8 March 2025)
- Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford (5 December 2024)
- Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford (6 April 2024)
- Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa (17 December 2023)
Out of the last five encounters:
- BTTS Yes – 3 matches
- BTTS No – 2 matches
👉 There is a slight tendency toward both teams scoring.
BTTS Final Verdict
BTTS – YES (Medium Probability ⚠️)
- Aston Villa are highly likely to score.
- Brentford are capable of scoring, though not consistently away from home.
BTTS – NO (Slightly Stronger Angle ✅)
- Brentford often fail to score on the road.
- Aston Villa frequently keep clean sheets at home.
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa Win | 55% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Brentford Win | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% |
| BTTS – Yes | 52% |
| BTTS – No | 48% |
| Aston Villa Win to Nil | 32% |
| Brentford Win to Nil | 8% |
| Ollie Watkins (Goal/Assist) | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers (Goal/Assist) | 42% |
| Emiliano Buendía (Goal/Assist) | 35% |
| Igor Thiago (Goal/Assist) | 55% |
| Kevin Schade (Goal/Assist) | 38% |
| Dango Ouattara (Goal/Assist) | 22% |
My Picks
| Pick | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa Win or Draw (Double Chance) | 75 |
| Over 1.5 Total Goals | 80 |
Final Verdict
Aston Villa come into this clash with strong momentum following their dramatic Europa League comeback and continue to be one of the Premier League’s most reliable home sides this season. Sitting third in the table and level on points with Manchester City, Villa have shown consistency, resilience, and attacking strength, particularly at Villa Park. While Brentford have enjoyed a solid campaign and have had some recent success in this fixture, their struggles away from home and recent defeat to Nottingham Forest make this a difficult challenge. Overall, Aston Villa’s home advantage, stronger season form, and attacking depth give them the edge to secure a positive result, with a Villa win or draw looking the most likely outcome.
