Aston Villa host West Ham United at Villa Park following a strong midweek performance in Europe. Villa secured a 2–0 victory against Lille in the Europa League, boosting confidence ahead of this important Premier League fixture. However, their last league outing ended in disappointment as they suffered a 3–1 defeat away to Manchester United at Old Trafford, a result that slightly slowed their push in the top-four race. Despite that loss, Villa remain in a strong position, currently sitting 4th with 51 points, and will be aiming to strengthen their hold on a Champions League spot.
West Ham, meanwhile, come into this match after a 1–1 draw against Manchester City at the London Stadium, a result that could be seen as positive given the strength of the opposition. However, their overall league situation remains concerning. The Hammers are currently 18th with 29 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest but behind on goal difference, with -19 compared to -15, keeping them inside the relegation zone.
The previous meeting between these two sides was an entertaining 3–2 away win for Aston Villa. The match started in dramatic fashion with Mateus Fernandes scoring in the 1st minute. Villa responded quickly after a Konstantinos Mavropanos own goal brought them level, before Jarrod Bowen restored West Ham’s lead in the 24th minute. In the second half, Morgan Rogers scored twice to complete the comeback and secure all three points for Villa.
Can West Ham United Avoid Relegation?
The key question heading into this match is whether West Ham can avoid relegation or if Aston Villa will continue their strong push in the top four. West Ham are under serious pressure, needing points urgently to climb out of the relegation zone, but facing a high-performing Villa side at home is a difficult challenge. Villa, on the other hand, will look to take advantage of West Ham’s defensive vulnerabilities and maintain their strong position near the top of the table.
Match Preview
• Competition: Premier League
• Venue: Villa Park
• Referee: Paul Tierney
• Aston Villa position: 4th – 51 points
• West Ham position: 18th – 29 points
Head-to-Head (All competitions):
• Aston Villa wins – 8
• Draws – 8
• West Ham wins – 9
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.04 | 21/20 | +104 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 11/4 | +280 |
| West Ham | 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 |
Aston Villa (Last 5 PL Games)
- 1–3 vs Manchester United L
- 1–4 vs Chelsea L
- 0–2 vs Wolves L
- 1–1 vs Leeds United D
- 1–0 vs Brighton W
West Ham (Last 5 PL Games)
- 1–1 vs Manchester City D
- 1–0 vs Fulham W
- 2–5 vs Liverpool L
- 0–0 vs AFC Bournemouth D
- 1–1 vs Manchester United D
Aston Villa Goal Profile
- 15W – 6D – 9L
Home Record
- 9W – 2D – 4L
West Ham Goal Profile
- 7W – 8D – 15L
Away Record
- 4W – 4D – 7L
Head-to-Head Trend
- West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham
- West Ham 1–2 Aston Villa
- West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 4–1 West Ham
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions & Xg statistics
Aston Villa Goal Profile
- Scored: 40 (1.33 per game)
- Conceded: 37 (1.23 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.33
- xG conceded: ~1.23
At Home
- Scored: 21 (1.40 per game)
- Conceded: 15 (1.00 per game)
West Ham Goal Profile
- Scored: 36 (1.20 per game)
- Conceded: 55 (1.83 per game)
Away
- Scored: 18 (1.20 per game)
- Conceded: 27 (1.80 per game)
- xG conceded: ~1.80
Head-to-Head Trend
- West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham
- West Ham 1–2 Aston Villa
- West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 4–1 West Ham
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Aston villa | West Ham United |
| Alysson (injured ) | Scarles (injured) |
| Buendia (injured) | Fabianski (injured) |
| Cash (injured ) | Summerville (injured) |
| Kamara (injured) | |
| Tielemans (injured) |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Prediction
| Market | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 | 8/11 | -133 |
| No | 2.28 | 5/4 | +128 |
Aston Villa BTTS Profile
- Clean sheets: 8
- Failed to score: 9
At Home
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 4
West Ham BTTS Profile
- Clean sheets: 4
- Failed to score: 9
Away
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 4
Head-to-Head Trend
- West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham
- West Ham 1–2 Aston Villa
- West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 4–1 West Ham
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market / Selection | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa Win | 48% |
| Draw | 26% |
| West Ham Win | 26% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 42% |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% |
| BTTS – Yes | 64% |
| BTTS – No | 36% |
| Aston Villa & Over 2.5 | 31% |
| Draw & BTTS Yes | 17% |
| West Ham & Over 2.5 | 24% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 2–1 West Ham | 15% |
| 2–2 Draw | 14% |
| Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham | 13% |
| Aston Villa 3–1 West Ham | 11% |
| Aston Villa 2–0 West Ham | 9% |
| Aston Villa 1–2 West Ham | 9% |
| Aston Villa 3–2 West Ham | 8% |
| Aston Villa 1–0 West Ham | 7% |
| Aston Villa 2–3 West Ham | 6% |
| 0–0 Draw | 3% |
My Picks
| Aston Villa Win or Draw |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Everything points toward Aston Villa having the upper hand in this fixture. Their recent European win adds momentum and confidence, and their overall league position reflects a side that has been consistently competitive at a higher level than West Ham this season. At Villa Park, they tend to impose their tempo, and against a West Ham side struggling defensively and fighting relegation, that control becomes even more significant. While West Ham’s urgency could make them dangerous in moments, especially on the counter, their inability to maintain defensive discipline remains a major concern. Over ninety minutes, Villa’s quality, structure, and attacking depth should prove decisive, making them clear favorites to secure the points, even if the game has phases of resistance from the visitors.
