Coming off a 1-1 draw at Molineux against Wolves, Brighton return home to the Amex aiming to convert draws into wins. The Seagulls, currently 12th in the Premier League with 9 points, have looked promising in attack but inconsistent defensively, conceding in almost every fixture. Fabian Hürzeler will be looking for a sharper, more controlled performance in front of their fans to climb back into the top half of the table.
Newcastle, sitting 11th with the same 9 points, arrive at the Amex after a 2-0 home win over Nottingham Forest. Eddie Howe’s side has shown glimpses of last season’s attacking intensity but still struggles for stability away from home. The Magpies will aim to carry momentum from their win and break their poor record at Brighton’s home ground.
The last meeting at the Amex ended in a 1-1 draw, with Yakuba Minteh scoring early for Brighton and Alexander Isak converting a late penalty to level the score. In the 22 all-time meetings between the two, Brighton hold the edge with 9 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses across all competitions (Premier League, FA Cup, Championship).
The question remains — will Brighton mark their 10th victory against Newcastle, or will the Magpies flip the script and snatch all three points away from home?
Odds Analysis
Brighton (2.62) | Newcastle (2.92) | Draw (3.5)
According to the odds, there’s no clear favourite — both sides are evenly matched on paper. Bookmakers slightly lean toward Brighton due to their home advantage, but Newcastle’s quality and recent form make this fixture wide open.
Historically, Newcastle’s record at the Amex has been poor — they’ve won only twice in 22 total meetings, with one of those victories coming in a friendly match, and the other in the Championship on 1st March 2017. Since then, the Magpies have failed to beat Brighton away in the Premier League, which adds a psychological hurdle for Eddie Howe’s men.
This matchup could go either way, the draw or a narrow home win appear more realistic. However, if Newcastle manage to finally break their Amex curse, it would mark their first Premier League win at Brighton’s home ground — a milestone that could reignite their campaign momentum.
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Brighton have been an open, attacking side this season — scoring 10 goals and conceding 10, giving them a goal difference of zero. Their defensive instability has been a major concern, as they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven Premier League games, showing a tendency to both score and concede regularly.
Newcastle, on the other hand, have been defensively disciplined, conceding just 5 goals and keeping 5 clean sheets, the most by any team so far this season. However, their attack hasn’t been as sharp, managing only 6 goals — suggesting a more conservative, control-based approach compared to Brighton’s high-risk, attacking setup.
Given these contrasting styles, this fixture is balanced between Brighton’s attacking intent and Newcastle’s defensive strength. While a goal fest isn’t guaranteed, Over 1.5 goals looks like the safest market, considering Brighton’s inability to defend cleanly and their tendency to push high. Expect a tight 1-1 or 2-1 type of game, with both teams likely to create chances.
Anytime Goalscorer
Brighton: The Seagulls’ goals have been well distributed across the team — a reflection of Fabian Hürzeler’s fluid attacking system where multiple players get into goal-scoring positions. Danny Welbeck, the veteran striker, leads with 2 goals, while Mitoma, Minteh, and Gruda each have 1. This wide spread makes it hard to pinpoint one reliable scorer.
Newcastle: All eyes are on Nick Woltemade, the 6’6″ German striker who’s been in red-hot form, scoring 3 goals in his last 3 Premier League appearances. His aerial dominance and sharp positioning inside the box make him a serious threat against Brighton’s shaky defence, which has struggled to deal with physical forwards. Considering his form and confidence, Woltemade is the standout anytime goalscorer pick in this fixture.
Best Anytime Goalscorer Option: Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)
Alternative Pick: Danny Welbeck (Brighton)
Risk Level: Moderate – both teams rotate scorers frequently, but form and defensive gaps favour a striker’s goal here.
BTTS
Odds:
Yes — 1.68 (Bookmakers slightly favour both sides scoring)
No — 2.45
Reasoning:
Brighton: Haven’t kept a clean sheet in 7 straight Premier League matches. Their attacking playstyle under De Zerbi always leaves space at the back — they score, but they also invite goals.
Newcastle: Have the most clean sheets (5) this season — but most of them came at home, not away. On the road, their defensive shape tends to loosen up.
Both sides have goal threats: Brighton’s wide-scoring attack vs Woltemade’s current hot streak.
Last 3 meetings between these two sides: all ended with both teams scoring.
Verdict:
👉 BTTS – Yes (1.68) looks strong and logical here.
Confidence level: 8/10
Predicted scoreline: 1-1 or 2-1 (either side).
Head-to-Head Facts
Brighton 1–1 Newcastle (Sept 2025)
– Kaoru Minteh scored for Brighton in the 28th minute.
– Alexander Isak equalised with a late 89th-minute penalty.
Brighton 2–1 Newcastle (AET, FA Cup – March 2025)
– Tight knockout game, went to extra time.
– Danny Welbeck scored the winner for Brighton.
Newcastle 0–1 Brighton (Premier League – Oct 2024)
– Brighton won narrowly away with a disciplined defensive setup.
– Pascal Groß netted the only goal.
Brighton 1–1 Newcastle (Premier League – May 2024)
– Both teams shared points in a balanced contest.
– End-to-end match with few clear chances.
Brighton 3–1 Newcastle (Premier League – Sept 2023)
– Dominant attacking display by Brighton.
– Evan Ferguson scored a hat-trick in a sensational performance.
Overall Summary
Brighton Wins: 3
Draws: 2
Newcastle Wins: 0
Average Goals per Match: ~2.4
Trends:
Brighton are unbeaten in their last 5 vs Newcastle.
Most games have gone Over 1.5 goals.
Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Brighton tend to perform stronger at home (Amex Stadium).
Noteworthy Stats
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United: after Brighton’s promotion in 2017, they went undefeated in their first 9 Premier League matches against Newcastle (with 2 wins and 2 draws away) and kept 7 clean sheets in that run, conceding just 2 goals. BBC+3Sports Mole+3AiScore+3
Newcastle have had several home matches against Brighton in the Premier League where they’ve failed to score, including a streak of matches where they couldn’t find the net at St James’ Park vs Brighton. Sports Mole+1
The Brighton-Newcastle fixture has produced relatively few huge defeats for Brighton; however, there was a 4-1 win by Newcastle at home (St James’) in May 2023, one of their bigger recent wins in this fixture. Sports Mole+2AiScore+2
In their past 22 meetings across all competitions (Premier League, Championship, FA Cup, etc.), Brighton have won 9, drawn 8, and Newcastle have won 5. Pretty close overall but shows Brighton pull slightly ahead historically. AiScore+1
In the FA Cup 2024-25, Brighton knocked out Newcastle in a dramatic match: extra time winner by Danny Welbeck after both teams had been reduced to 10 men, and several crazy events (goals disallowed etc.). Reuters+1
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 92% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 89% |
| BTTS | 88% |
| Nick Woltemade to score | 68% |
My Picks
Over 1.5 Goals
BTTS – Yes
Final Verdict
This fixture has all the signs of being an unpredictable yet entertaining contest. Brighton, despite being shaky defensively, remain one of the most attack-minded teams in the league — scoring in nearly every match but struggling to keep clean sheets (0 in their last 7). Newcastle, on the other hand, have the best defensive record so far this season with 5 clean sheets, but their attack has been inconsistent away from home.
Historically, Brighton have dominated this fixture at the Amex, and Newcastle have only won twice in their last 22 meetings (none in the Premier League at the Amex). That psychological edge plus Brighton’s strong home support could make things tough for the Magpies.
Expect both sides to trade chances — Brighton’s open play style against Newcastle’s compact defence makes Over 1.5 Goals very likely. Newcastle’s new frontman Nick Woltemade is in red-hot form, and Brighton’s Danny Welbeck or Mitoma could find the net too.
