Burnley return to Turf Moor after a narrow 2–1 defeat against Aston Villa at Villa Park, still searching for stability in the Premier League. Scott Parker’s side have struggled to adapt to the top-flight pace sitting 18th in the table, just inside the relegation zone.
Leeds, on the other hand, were unfortunate in their last outing a 1–2 loss to Tottenham at Elland Road. Despite the defeat, Daniel Farke’s men have looked more composed than Burnley since promotion, collecting 8 points and sitting mid-table at 15th.
Historically, both clubs are well familiar with each other from Championship days. Their last meeting at Turf Moor ended in a goalless 0–0 draw, a tight contest that reflected the evenly matched nature of the two sides. With both now back in the Premier League, this fixture could go either way — Burnley seeking redemption and Leeds looking to maintain their solid start.
Odds Analysis
The odds are set at Burnley (3.50), Leeds (2.34), and Draw (3.35) — suggesting that bookmakers slightly favour Leeds to take all three points at Turf Moor. That’s understandable, given their relatively stronger start to the season and Burnley’s ongoing struggles in front of goal.
However, these odds also indicate how tight and unpredictable this fixture could be. Burnley’s home ground advantage cannot be dismissed, even if they’ve yet to convert performances into results.
The previous meeting at Turf Moor ended 0–0, where both teams registered low xG (expected goals) — a reflection of compact defending and lack of clinical finishing. Given the similar dynamics now — Burnley desperate to avoid another loss and Leeds cautious away from home — this match could again turn into a scrappy, low-chance contest.
Last 5 head to head matches
| Fixture | Result |
|---|---|
| Burnley vs Leeds United | 0 – 0 |
| Leeds United vs Burnley | 0 – 1 |
| Leeds United vs Burnley | 3 – 1 |
| Burnley vs Leeds United | 1 – 1 |
| Burnley vs Leeds United | 0 – 4 |
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
Both teams have scored 7 goals so far this season, but Burnley’s defensive record remains a concern as they’ve conceded 15 goals compared to Leeds’ 11. Burnley have managed just 1 clean sheet, while Leeds have slightly edged them with 2. The stats suggest inconsistency at the back for both, though Leeds appear a bit more compact defensively. Predicting the goal range here is tricky — it could turn cagey like their previous 0-0 meeting at Turf Moor, but defensive lapses from either side could also open up the game. For live in-play over/under goal updates and real-time analysis, join my Telegram link below this page.
| Team | Clean Sheets |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 1 |
| Leeds United | 2 |
Anytime Goalscorer
Predicting an anytime goalscorer for this fixture isn’t straightforward since both sides have shared their goals across multiple players. However, Burnley’s Jaidon Anthony clearly stands out as their most consistent attacking threat with 4 goals this season and an impressive average rating of 7.2/10 in the Premier League. On the other hand, Leeds’ Noah Okafor has contributed 2 goals, often making dangerous runs behind the defense. Given current form, Anthony remains the most likely to score or assist, but Leeds’ fluid attack means Okafor could capitalize if Burnley’s defense switches off.
| Player | G+A Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony | 70% |
| Lyle Foster | 63% |
| Calvert-Lewin | 55% |
| Noah Okafor | 50% |
BTTS
The numbers being 1.92 for Yes and 1.93 for No basically tell us the market is almost perfectly balanced, which usually signals uncertainty. That 0-0 last match doesn’t help either—it suggests both teams might struggle to score.
So skipping this BTTS (Both Teams to Score) market makes sense. Betting here would be almost a coin flip—too risky for the odds you’re getting.
Head-to-Head Facts
The footballing landscape has witnessed numerous rivalries over the years, and the encounters between Burnley and Leeds United stand out as a testament to English football’s rich history. Their meetings have spanned decades, showcasing contrasting styles, memorable matches, and a deep-seated competitive spirit.
Total Matches Played: 25
Burnley Wins: 8
Leeds United Wins: 13
Draws: 4
Goals Scored: Burnley: 24, Leeds United: 33
Average Goals per Match: 2.28
These statistics highlight a slight edge for Leeds United in terms of victories and overall goals scored. However, Burnley’s resilience in these encounters cannot be understated, often pushing their opponents to the limit.
Historical Noteworthy Stats
While the modern rivalry has had some notable matches, the historical records show some particularly interesting events and statistics, primarily around their older clashes:
Crazy Historical Events / Stories
The Six Games in Ten Days Saga (1970): A truly bizarre scheduling congestion affected Leeds United’s title race, culminating in a match against Burnley. In a period where the FA was trying to finish the season early for the World Cup, Don Revie’s legendary Leeds team played six matches in ten days in April/May 1970, challenging for the league title, the FA Cup, and the European Cup. One day after a European Cup Semi-Final (against Celtic), they played a rearranged league fixture against West Ham. Then, after a “luxurious” two-day break, they played Burnley at Elland Road.
The overwhelming fixture congestion caused Leeds to field weakened sides in some league matches, ultimately costing them the league title. The match against Burnley came at the tail end of this exhausting period.
Eddie Gray’s “Golden Goals” (1970): In the same era (or around the same time), Leeds legend Eddie Gray scored two of his most iconic goals against Burnley: one was a 40-yard lob, and the other was a famous mazy, mazy run past multiple defenders, widely regarded as one of the greatest goals in Leeds’ history.
Crazy Historical Stats (Recent Era)
Leeds United’s Dominance in the Premier League (Recent Era): In the four Premier League meetings between the two sides from 2020-2022, Leeds United were heavily dominant, with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses against Burnley. This included a comprehensive 4-0 victory for Leeds at Turf Moor in May 2021.
The Penalty Shootout Draw (2017): A match in the EFL Cup in September 2017 ended in a dramatic 2-2 draw after extra time at Turf Moor, before Leeds United won 5-3 on penalties.6 This high-scoring draw and subsequent shootout is less common in the rivalry’s more recent history.
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 84% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% |
| Jaidon Anthony Goal or Assist | 70% |
My Picks
Over 1.5 Goals
Final Verdict
Final Verdict
This fixture is shaping up to be a tight, low-scoring affair. While Leeds United are the marginal favourites based on their better start and the bookmakers’ odds (2.34), Burnley’s need for a result and the home advantage at Turf Moor will make them a resilient opponent.
The previous 0–0 draw here highlights the potential for a cagey, low-xG contest. Both teams have leaky defenses this season, but their recent head-to-head matches have been tight. With Burnley desperate to climb out of the relegation zone and Leeds looking to solidify their mid-table position, caution may outweigh attacking ambition.
Given the recent form, Burnley’s defensive struggles (15 conceded), and Leeds’ slightly more stable performances, a score draw or a narrow Leeds win seems the most likely outcome. The odds for Both Teams To Score (No) at 1.93 and the history of low-scoring affairs suggest a repeat of the recent defensive battle.
Prediction: Draw 1–1
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals (or play safe with Over 1.5 Goals)
