Burnley come into this game after a narrow defeat against Liverpool at Turf Moor. Scott Parker’s side actually defended well for long periods, but the match turned late on — Ugochukwu’s second yellow in the 84th minute left them a man down, and then in stoppage time, Frimpong’s cross struck Hannibal’s arm leading to a penalty that decided the game. Despite the loss, Burnley showed resilience and made it very difficult for Liverpool to create clear chances.

Nottingham Forest, under new manager Ange Postecoglou, faced a baptism of fire in his first game — a trip to the Emirates against a red-hot Arsenal side. The 3–0 defeat highlighted how much work Ange has to do, but it’s also worth noting that many teams struggle away at Arsenal. Now, he gets a different test at Turf Moor. Forest will look to be braver in possession and try to impose Ange’s attacking ideas, though Turf Moor isn’t an easy ground — Liverpool themselves had to dig very deep here.

This sets up a cagey but intriguing battle: Parker’s compact Burnley against Ange’s new-look Forest who are trying to find their attacking rhythm.

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest – Odds Analysis

Burnley: 3.20 | 11/5
Nottingham: 2.15 | 23/20
Draw: 3.50 | 5/2

Burnley have had a tough start to the Premier League season, winning just one of their four games — a 2-0 victory against Sunderland. Scott Parker will be eager to grab three points here, especially with Turf Moor needing a morale boost after that heartbreaking late defeat to Liverpool. Burnley have shown signs of improvement defensively, and if they can stay disciplined, this could be their chance to get momentum back on track.

Nottingham Forest under Ange Postecoglou are still adapting to a new style of play. Ange’s philosophy is very different from Nuno’s. However, it takes time for players to fully adapt. Forest currently sit 15th in the table with 4 points, coming from a home win against Brentford on opening day and a draw away at Crystal Palace. They have the squad depth to rotate and play Ange’s way, but consistency is still missing.

This fixture feels crucial for both clubs — Expect a battle where Burnley stay compact and Forest look to impose their attacking style, but we might not see an open game from the first minute.

Chances of Winning %

Nottingham46.5

Over/Under Goals

This fixture feels like one where both teams will go for it rather than playing cautious football. Burnley, under Scott Parker, have shown they can defend deep when required (like they did against Liverpool), but this is a home game at Turf Moor and Parker knows three points are crucial to lift morale. Expect Burnley to carry the ball into the final third more frequently, push their full-backs higher, and commit numbers forward when they get chances.

Nottingham Forest, now under Ange Postecoglou. Ange’s philosophy is based on attacking football — high pressing, quick passing combinations, and taking risks even away from home. This change in approach could open the game up, as Forest will try to create chances rather than simply absorb pressure.

Over 1.5 Goals (1.40): Safest pick — highly likely outcome as both sides will look to get on the scoresheet.

Over 2.5 Goals (2.04): 💡 Value option — Burnley’s willingness to attack at home + Forest’s attacking style under Ange make 3+ goals a realistic outcome.

Under 2.5 Goals (1.75): ❌ Less appealing — this market only suits punters expecting a very tight, low-scoring contest, which doesn’t fit the likely flow of this game

Anytime Goalscorer

Burnley

Jaidon Anthony – One of Burnley’s most in-form players this season. He has already scored twice, including one against Manchester United and another against Sunderland. Playing wide but drifting into dangerous positions, he is a strong candidate to get on the scoresheet again, especially if Burnley see more of the ball at home.
Lyle Foster – The South African striker has been a handful for defenders with his physical presence and link-up play. He also scored against Manchester United and will be a constant threat in the box.

Both players are worth keeping an eye on if you are looking for value in the anytime goalscorer market.

Nottingham Forest

Chris Wood – The experienced 33-year-old New Zealand striker remains Forest’s main attacking outlet. He has already scored twice this season and is known for converting half-chances with his aerial ability and smart positioning.
Morgan Gibbs-White – Despite not scoring yet this season, Gibbs-White was Forest’s most influential player last campaign. Under Ange Postecoglou’s more attacking style, he might find himself in more advanced positions and could break his scoring drought soon.

While there are multiple scoring threats, this market can still be tricky because both teams are in transition. If you are betting pre-match, Jaidon Anthony or Chris Wood look like the safer options based on current form.

BTTS – Both Team to Score

This fixture has the potential to be end-to-end football, especially with both sides chasing three points. Burnley will look to play on the front foot at Turf Moor, and Nottingham Forest under Ange Postecoglou are expected to press high and attack rather than sit back. This combination could create plenty of chances for both sides.

BTTS – Yes (1.83): Bookmakers are leaning towards this outcome, suggesting there’s a good chance both teams find the net. Burnley’s home advantage and attacking intent combined with Forest’s more open style under Ange make this a very realistic scenario.
BTTS – No (2.14): Priced higher, so less likely according to the market. This would require one side to completely dominate or keep a clean sheet — not easy given how both teams play.

Given the managers’ approach and the fact that both sides will see this as a winnable game, BTTS: Yes looks like the more likely outcome. Expect a lively contest with chances at both ends, making this one of the stronger markets for punters in this fixture.

Burnley vs Nottingham Head-to-Head Facts

Overall H2H Record

In about 27 past matches, Burnley have won 12, Forest 8, with 7 draws.
At Turf Moor specifically (Burnley home), the home side have been strong: 7 wins, 2 draws, only 1 loss in the matches listed.

Goals per Match

On average, all direct Burnley vs Nottingham Forest matches have yielded 2.30 goals per game.
Burnley tend to score slightly above 1.2 goals per game in these H2H’s, Forest around 1.07.

BTTS & Over/Under Trends

BTTS (Both Teams to Score) has occurred in approximately 42–50% of the Burnley vs Forest matches historically.
Over 2.5 Goals has happened less often: only 29% of H2H matches. Most matches have stayed under 2.5 goals historically.
Over 1.5 Goals is far more common (70%+ in many of those matches).

Recent Key Matches

On 19 May 2024, Forest won 2–1 at Turf Moor, with Chris Wood scoring a brace. Burnley dominated many stats (shots, possession) but couldn’t convert enough.
Matches in recent seasons often show Burnley controlling possession at home but struggling to keep clean sheets vs Forest.

My Picks

Over 1.5 Goals – Safest Pick
This is the most reliable market here, with both teams needing three points, there’s a high probability of at least two goals being scored.
💡 Pro Tip: If the game is 0-0 at half-time, the live odds will rise to around 2.10+ making it an even better value pick.
BTTS – Yes 🤝
Considering the historic H2H stats, Forest’s attacking approach under Ange, and Burnley’s need to attack at home, this is likely.

Final Verdict

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest promises to be a tight but lively contest, with both teams desperate for three points. Burnley will look to be more adventurous at Turf Moor than they were against Liverpool, while Forest under Ange Postecoglou will try to play attacking football and press high. This combination makes Over 1.5 Goals the safest and most logical pick, with excellent value if backed in-play after a goalless first half. Considering the historic H2H data and the current attacking intent of both sides, BTTS: Yes also looks likely, making a 1-1 or 2-1 type result a realistic outcome.