Burnley continue their fight for survival as they welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Turf Moor. The Clarets remain stuck in the relegation zone in 19th place. Burnley come into this fixture after earning an impressive 1–1 draw at Anfield against Liverpool. It was a hard-fought performance where Florian Wirtz gave the Reds the lead in the first half, but Burnley responded strongly after the break, with Marcus Edwards grabbing the equaliser in the second half. A point away at Anfield will boost confidence, and Turf Moor now becomes the stage for another crucial battle.
Tottenham arrive in mixed form. Spurs suffered a disappointing 2–1 home defeat to West Ham, where a dramatic 90+3 minute winner from Callum Wilson decided the match and left Thomas Frank’s side frustrated at full-time. However, Spurs did respond positively in midweek by defeating Borussia Dortmund 2–0 in the Champions League, showing that their squad still has quality and the ability to deliver big performances.
In the Premier League table, Spurs sit 14th, far below expectations, while Burnley desperately need points to escape the drop zone. This fixture also carries a revenge narrative, as Tottenham dominated the reverse fixture earlier in the season, claiming a 3–0 victory on the opening day of the 2025/26 campaign. Burnley will be eager to respond in front of their home crowd and prove they are capable of competing with top-flight teams.
The key question remains: Can Burnley use Turf Moor’s intensity to take revenge and boost their survival hopes, or will Tottenham snatch all three points despite their inconsistent league form?
Odds Analysis
Match Odds
- Burnley: 3.18
- Tottenham: 2.14
- Draw: 3.60
The odds lean towards Tottenham as favourites, mainly because of their stronger away record and slightly better season performance compared to Burnley. Burnley’s home form has been unreliable this season, which is reflected in their underdog price, although their recent draws against top sides show they are not an easy team to beat.
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Burnley
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley (A)
- Burnley 2–2 Manchester United (H)
- Brighton 2–0 Burnley (A)
- Burnley 1–3 Newcastle (H)
- Burnley 1–1 Everton (H)
Burnley have shown fighting spirit with draws against Liverpool and Manchester United, but overall their defensive record remains an issue, especially at Turf Moor where they have struggled to convert home games into wins.
Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–2 West Ham (H)
- Bournemouth 3–2 Tottenham (A)
- Tottenham 1–1 Sunderland (H)
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham (A)
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham (A)
Spurs have been inconsistent but have looked more stable away from home than at their own stadium, picking up results on the road even when performances haven’t been perfect.
Season Stats
Burnley (22 matches)
- Won: 3
- Draw: 5
- Lost: 14
Burnley home record (11 matches)
- Won: 2
- Draw: 3
- Lost: 6
Burnley’s season overall has been difficult, with 6 home defeats already.
Tottenham (22 matches)
- Won: 7
- Draw: 6
- Lost: 9
Tottenham away record (11 matches)
- Won: 5
- Draw: 3
- Lost: 3
Tottenham have been far better away from home, winning nearly half of their away matches, which gives them an edge in this fixture.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Tottenham 3–0 Burnley
- Tottenham 2–1 Burnley
- Burnley 2–5 Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–0 Burnley
- Burnley 1–0 Tottenham
Tottenham have dominated most recent meetings, with Burnley managing only one win in these five fixtures. Goals have also been a key theme in this fixture, with Spurs often finding multiple goals against Burnley.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Burnley (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 23
- Conceded: 42
- xG scored per match: 1.05
- xG conceded per match: 1.91
✅ Burnley concede almost 2 goals per match, which supports the Over goals market.
Burnley (Home – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 10
- Conceded: 15
- xG scored per match (home): 0.91
- xG conceded per match (home): 1.36
✅ Burnley at home score less than 1 goal per match, but still concede regularly.
Tottenham (Season – 22 matches)
- Played: 22
- Scored: 31
- Conceded: 29
- xG scored per match: 1.41
- xG conceded per match: 1.32
Tottenham (Away – 11 matches)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 18
- Conceded: 15
- xG scored per match (away): 1.64
- xG conceded per match (away): 1.36
✅ Tottenham away games are quite open: averaging 1.64 goals scored, and conceding 1.36, which usually creates 2–3 goal games.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Tottenham 3–0 Burnley
- Tottenham 2–1 Burnley
- Burnley 2–5 Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–0 Burnley
- Burnley 1–0 Tottenham
H2H Goals Summary (Last 5)
- Total goals: 3 + 3 + 7 + 1 + 1 = 15
- Average goals per match: 15 ÷ 5 = 3.0 goals
✅ H2H strongly supports Over 2.5 goals, with Spurs often scoring multiple goals in this fixture.
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G/A) | Goal or Assist Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony (5G, 1A) | 41% |
| Armando Broja (1G, 1A) | 22% |
| Marcus Edwards (1G, 2A) | 27% |
| Xavi Simons (1G, 3A) | 33% |
| Mathys Tel (3G) | 29% |
BTTS Odds
- Yes – 1.90
- No – 2.06
The odds are quite balanced, but BTTS Yes is slightly favoured, meaning bookmakers expect both sides to score though it’s not a strong lean.
Team Records (BTTS Indicators)
Burnley (Season – 22 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 7
➡️ Burnley concede in most matches, but their bigger issue is scoring reliability 7 blanks already.
Burnley (Home – 11 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 5
➡️ At Turf Moor Burnley are even more unpredictable: they’ve failed to score in 5 of 11 home matches, which is a serious risk for BTTS Yes.
Tottenham (Season – 22 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 4
➡️ Spurs are better balanced they can score and also keep clean sheets.
Tottenham (Away – 11 Matches)
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 2
➡️ Spurs away are solid: 5 clean sheets in 11 away games is strong, and that supports BTTS No as well.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Tottenham 3–0 Burnley ❌ BTTS
- Tottenham 2–1 Burnley ✅ BTTS
- Burnley 2–5 Tottenham ✅ BTTS
- Tottenham 1–0 Burnley ❌ BTTS
- Burnley 1–0 Tottenham ❌ BTTS
H2H BTTS Results
- BTTS Yes: 2/5
- BTTS No: 3/5
So historically, this fixture slightly favours BTTS No.
Final BTTS Summary
✅ Burnley likely to concede
⚠️ Burnley not reliable to score
✅ Spurs score in most away games
✅ Spurs also keep many away clean sheets
Verdict
BTTS is a risky market here.
Even though odds lean slightly to Yes, Burnley’s poor scoring record and Spurs’ strong away clean sheets make BTTS No a real possibility too.
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham Win | 44% |
| Draw | 27% |
| Burnley Win | 29% |
| Tottenham Win or Draw (X2) | 71% |
| Burnley Win or Draw (1X) | 56% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 95% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 34% |
| BTTS – Yes | 52% |
| BTTS – No | 48% |
| Tottenham to Score | 74% |
| Burnley to Score | 53% |
| Tottenham Clean Sheet | 38% |
| Burnley Clean Sheet | 18% |
My Picks
| My Pick | Market |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | Over/Under Goals |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over/Under Goals |
| BTTS – Yes | Both Teams To Score |
Final Verdict
Burnley vs Tottenham has strong potential to produce goals, mainly because Burnley concede heavily and Spurs’ away matches tend to be open and attacking. Burnley have shown fight recently with draws against sides like Liverpool and Manchester United, but their biggest weakness remains inconsistency in front of goal, especially at Turf Moor where they have failed to score in several matches. Tottenham arrive with mixed league form, yet their away record is much stronger than their home performances, and they also have a positive head-to-head record against Burnley, often scoring multiple goals in this fixture. With Burnley desperate for points in the relegation battle and Spurs needing a result to climb away from the lower half of the table, the match should be played at a high intensity, creating chances at both ends. Overall, the goals market looks the safest route, with Over 1.5 goals highly likely, Over 2.5 goals having strong value, and BTTS Yes possible if Burnley can convert one of their chances at home.
