Chelsea host Newcastle United at Stamford Bridge in the upcoming Premier League fixture after a dramatic and difficult week across competitions. Chelsea suffered a heavy 5–2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain at Parc des Princes in the Champions League, a result that exposed defensive weaknesses against top European opposition. Despite the European disappointment, Chelsea had a positive domestic result last weekend as they defeated Championship side Wrexham 4–2 after extra time at the STōK Cae Ras in the FA Cup. Prior to that, Chelsea produced an impressive Premier League performance with a 4–1 away victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. That win helped keep them in the race for Champions League qualification as they currently sit 5th in the table, just below the top four.
Newcastle United come into the match with mixed results as well. In the Champions League they played out a dramatic 1–1 draw against Barcelona at St James’ Park. Harvey Barnes gave Newcastle the lead in the 86th minute, seemingly securing a huge victory, but Barcelona equalised deep into stoppage time through Lamine Yamal in the 90+6 minute, denying Newcastle a famous win. Domestically, Newcastle were eliminated from the FA Cup after losing 3–1 to Manchester City, although they did secure a strong 2–1 Premier League victory against Manchester United, which boosted their league momentum.
The last meeting between these two sides ended in an entertaining 2–2 draw at St James’ Park. Newcastle started the match strongly with Nick Woltemade scoring twice early in the game, putting the home side in control. However, Chelsea responded well in the second half, with Reece James and João Pedro both finding the net to secure a comeback draw.
Match Facts
• Premier League Round: 30
• Venue: Stamford Bridge
• Referee: Paul Tierney
• Chelsea position: 5th – 48 points
• Newcastle position: 12th – 39 points
Head-to-Head (All competitions 34 matches):
• Chelsea wins 16
• Newcastle wins 11
• Draws 7
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.86 | 5/6 | -116 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 10/3 | +330 |
| Newcastle | 4.20 | 16/5 | +320 |
Chelsea (Last 5 PL Games)
- Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds
- Wolves 1-3 Chelsea
Newcastle (Last 5 PL Games)
- Newcastle 2–1 Manchester United
- Newcastle 2–3 Everton
- Manchester City 2–1 Newcastle
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle
- Newcastle 2–3 Brentford
Chelsea this season statistics
- 13 Wins – 9 Draws – 7 Losses
Home Record
- 6 Wins – 5 Draws – 3 Losses
Newcastle this season statistics
- 11 Wins – 6 Draws – 12 Losses
Away Record
- 3 Wins – 4 Draws – 7 Losses
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle
- Chelsea 3–2 Newcastle
- Newcastle 4–1 Chelsea
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Chelsea goals this season
- 53 goals scored
- 34 goals conceded
- xG created per match 1.83
- xG conceded per match 1.17
Chelsea at Stamford Bridge
- 23 goals scored
- 16 goals conceded
- xG created 1.64
- xG conceded 1.14
Newcastle goals this season
- 42 goals scored
- 43 goals conceded
- xG created per match 1.45
- xG conceded per match 1.48
Newcastle Away
- 14 goals scored
- 19 goals conceded
- xG created 1.00
- xG conceded 1.36
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle
- Chelsea 3–2 Newcastle
- Newcastle 4–1 Chelsea
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Chelsea | Newcastle |
|---|---|
| Mykhailo Mudryk (Suspended) | Bruno Guimarães |
| Wesley Fofana (Doubtful) | Lewis Miley |
| Estêvão | Fabian Schär |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens | Emil Krafth |
| Levi Colwill |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 | 8/15 | -182 |
| No | 2.68 | 13/8 | +168 |
Chelsea scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 9 in 29
- Failed to score: 2 in 29
Chelsea at Home
- Clean sheets: 4 in 14
- Failed to score: 1 in 14
Newcastle scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 7 in 29
- Failed to score: 7 in 29
Newcastle Away
- Clean sheets: 4 in 14
- Failed to score: 5 in 14
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle
- Chelsea 3–2 Newcastle
- Newcastle 4–1 Chelsea
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea Win | 52% |
| Draw | 24% |
| Newcastle Win | 24% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 37% |
| BTTS – Yes | 64% |
| BTTS – No | 36% |
| Chelsea Win to Nil | 18% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle | 18% |
| Chelsea 2–2 Newcastle | 14% |
| Chelsea 3–1 Newcastle | 12% |
| Chelsea 1–1 Newcastle | 10% |
| Chelsea 1–2 Newcastle | 8% |
| Chelsea 2–0 Newcastle | 7% |
| Chelsea 3–2 Newcastle | 7% |
| Chelsea 0–1 Newcastle | 5% |
| Chelsea 1–0 Newcastle | 5% |
| Chelsea 0–0 Newcastle | 4% |
| Other Outcomes | 10% |
My Picks
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
This matchup looks competitive, but Chelsea FC appear to hold a slight advantage at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea’s strong attacking options and recent Premier League performances suggest they have the quality to control the game, especially on home soil where they rarely lose. Newcastle United remain a dangerous opponent capable of scoring, particularly through quick transitions and wide attacking play, but their inconsistency and away form could make this a difficult challenge. If Chelsea manage to dictate possession and apply early pressure, they should create enough chances to edge the contest, although Newcastle’s ability to counterattack means the match could still remain open and competitive throughout.
