Crystal Palace welcome Burnley to Selhurst Park for a midweek Matchweek 26 clash, with the two sides heading in very different directions this season.
The last head-to-head meeting went Palace’s way, a 0–1 win at Turf Moor, decided by Daniel Muñoz’s goal just before half-time (44’). That result summed up the current gap between the teams. Palace sit 13th with 32 points, comfortably mid-table, while Burnley remain deep in trouble in 19th place with just 15 points, firmly in the relegation zone.
Form coming into this game is mixed. Palace wont 0–1 to Brighton at the Amex, a narrow win in a tight contest. Burnley, meanwhile, lost 0–2 at home to West Ham, another setback in a season where goals and points have been hard to come by.
Selhurst Park could be decisive. Palace are generally more organised at home and tend to control games against lower-placed sides, while Burnley continue to struggle both defensively and in attack, especially away from Turf Moor.
The big question remains: can Palace repeat their previous three-point haul, or will Burnley finally spring a surprise and hurt the Eagles on their own ground? On paper and recent evidence, Palace look better equipped but Burnley’s desperation for points adds an unpredictable edge to this fixture.
Match Odds Prediction
- Crystal Palace: 1.56
- Draw: 4.50
- Burnley: 7.00
The bookmakers have positioned Crystal Palace as clear favourites for this Selhurst Park encounter. Burnley’s long odds reflect their poor defensive record and struggles away from home.
Crystal Palace Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa
Crystal Palace have registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their recent matches highlight defensive discipline in tighter games, though attacking consistency remains uneven. The away win at Brighton demonstrates their ability to perform against comparable opposition.
Burnley Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Burnley 0–2 West Ham
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Manchester United
Burnley remain winless in their last five, collecting 3 draws and 2 losses. While draws against strong opponents show resilience, defensive instability continues to limit their results.
Crystal Palace this season statistics (25 Matches)
- Wins: 8
- Draws: 8
- Losses: 9
Crystal Palace have produced a balanced but inconsistent season. Their high draw count reflects competitive yet often closely contested matches.
Crystal Palace home form this season (Selhurst park)
- Played: 12
- Wins: 2
- Draws: 6
- Losses: 4
Palace have struggled to convert home fixtures into wins but remain difficult to break down. Many matches end in draws or narrow margins.
Burnley statistics this season (25 Matches)
- Wins: 3
- Draws: 6
- Losses: 16
Burnley’s season has been difficult, with frequent losses driven largely by defensive weaknesses.
Burnley Away form this season
- Played: 12
- Wins: 1
- Draws: 2
- Losses: 9
Burnley have struggled significantly on the road. Defensive frailties have resulted in regular concessions.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 3–0 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 3–3 Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are unbeaten in the last five meetings, recording 3 wins and 2 draws. Recent history favours Palace, particularly defensively.
Overall Odds Verdict
The odds favour Crystal Palace, supported by:
✔ Better defensive structure
✔ Burnley’s weak away form
✔ Strong recent H2H record
Best Lean: Crystal Palace Win (1.56)
Safer Option: Crystal Palace Win or Draw (1X)
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Xg Statistics
Crystal Palace Goals This Season
- Played: 25
- Scored: 26
- Conceded: 29
- xG Scored per match: ~1.05
- xG Conceded per match: ~1.15
Crystal Palace matches tend to be low to medium scoring. Their attacking numbers are modest, while the defence remains relatively stable. Most Palace games stay within the 1–2 total goals range.
Crystal Palace Home Xg this season
- Played: 12
- Scored: 11
- Conceded: 15
- xG Scored: ~0.95
- xG Conceded: ~1.20
At Selhurst Park, Palace games are often controlled but not explosive. Lower scoring trends are common, though defensive concessions prevent extremely tight outcomes.
Typical scorelines: 1–0, 1–1, 2–1
Burnley Goals This Season
- Played: 25
- Scored: 25
- Conceded: 49
- xG Scored: ~1.00
- xG Conceded: ~1.95
Burnley matches frequently produce goals, largely due to their very weak defensive record. Conceding nearly two expected goals per game signals consistent defensive pressure.
Burnley games often lean toward Over markets
Burnley away xg this season
- Played: 12
- Scored: 13
- Conceded: 30
- xG Scored: ~1.05
- xG Conceded: ~2.45
Burnley’s away matches are highly unstable defensively. Conceding over 2 expected goals per game dramatically increases total goal probability.
Away games strongly favour Over 1.5 / Over 2.5
🔁 Head-to-Head Goals Trend
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 3–0 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 3–3 Crystal Palace
Results show a mix of low-scoring Palace wins and occasional open games. Palace often control Burnley, but Burnley’s defensive weakness always keeps Over markets relevant.
Over / Under Prediction
Crystal Palace → Naturally low-scoring team
Burnley → Defensive collapse risk
Burnley away xG conceded → Very high
H2H → Mixed but goals present
Best Pick: Over 1.5 Goals (Strong)
Estimated Probability: 85%
Over 2.5 Goals (Balanced / Value Pick)
Estimated Probability: 60%
Anytime Goalscorer Prediction
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony (5G, 1A) | 28% |
| Zian Flemming (5G, 0A) | 28% |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (3G, 0A) | 22% |
| Ismaïla Sarr (5G, 1A) | 30% |
| Daniel Muñoz (3G, 2A) | 25% |
| Jorgen Strand Larsen (1G, 1A) | 48% |
Both team to score prediction
- Yes: 2.02
- No: 1.96
Crystal Palace clean sheets this season
- Played: 25
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 8
Crystal Palace show a mixed profile. They are capable defensively, but attacking inconsistencies mean they occasionally struggle to find the net. This creates an unpredictable BTTS pattern.
Palace games often depend on match tempo rather than pure attacking strength.
Crystal Palace home clean sheets this season
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 5
At Selhurst Park, Palace have been surprisingly unreliable. Home matches are often tight but not always productive.
Burnley clean sheets this season
- Played: 25
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 9
Burnley’s defensive weakness is clear.
They concede regularly but struggle for consistent attacking output.
Burnley away clean sheets this season
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 0
- Failed to score: 3
Burnley’s away profile is interesting:
Always concede
Score occasionally
Head-to-Head Trend
- Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace – BTTS – No
- Crystal Palace 3–0 Burnley – BTTS – No
- Burnley 0–2 Crystal Palace – BTTS – No
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Burnley – BTTS – Yes
- Burnley 3–3 Crystal Palace- BTTS – Yes
Recent H2H shows:
- BTTS Yes: 2 matches
- BTTS No: 3 matches
BTTS Final View
Crystal Palace frequently blank
Burnley attack inconsistent
Palace capable of defensive control
H2H slightly favours one-sided games
Best Lean: BTTS – NO
Estimated Probability: ~55–60%
BTTS – YES
Estimated Probability: ~40–45%
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Win Probability
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace Win | 60–65% |
| Draw | 20–25% |
| Burnley Win | 10–15% |
| Crystal Palace Win or Draw (1X) | 80–85% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 92–95% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80–85% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55–60% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 40–45% |
| BTTS – YES | 40–45% |
| BTTS – NO | 55–60% |
| Crystal Palace to Score | 75–80% |
| Burnley to Score | 45–50% |
| Crystal Palace Clean Sheet | 35–40% |
My Picks
| Crystal Palace Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Final Verdict
Everything about this matchup points toward Crystal Palace holding the upper hand. With stronger defensive organisation, home advantage at Selhurst Park, and Burnley’s continued struggles on the road, Palace appear better positioned to control the tempo and create the clearer chances. Burnley’s defensive fragility and inconsistent attacking output remain major concerns, particularly against structured sides. While relegation pressure can sometimes produce surprise performances, the overall balance of quality, stability, and recent trends favour the hosts. From a betting perspective, Crystal Palace look like the safer side, with goals markets also attracting interest given Burnley’s tendency to concede. For those assessing this English Premier League prediction, the smart lean remains Crystal Palace win, with alternatives such as Over 1.5 Goals or Palace win & BTTS No offering logical value angles.
