Leeds United welcome Manchester City to Elland Road in an intriguing Premier League Matchweek 28 encounter. City enter this fixture firmly engaged in the title race, sitting five points behind league leaders Arsenal with a game in hand, a scenario that leaves little margin for error. Leeds, meanwhile arrive after a competitive 1–1 draw against Aston Villa, a result that underlined their resilience against top-tier opposition.
Manchester City secured a controlled 2–1 victory over Newcastle United in their most recent league outing at the Etihad, maintaining momentum. The previous head-to-head meeting between these sides delivered late drama, with City emerging 3–2 winners, highlighted by Phil Foden’s brace, including a stoppage-time winner.
Key Facts:
1. Across the last 8 meetings (all competitions), Manchester City have dominated with 6 wins, while Leeds have managed just one victory, alongside one draw.
2. Leeds have suffered only three home defeats this season, indicating Elland Road remains a competitive venue.
3. Manchester City have recorded four away losses, reflecting occasional vulnerability on the road.
4. Notably, 7 of the last 8 H2H fixtures produced Over 2.5 Goals, signalling a strong high-scoring trend.
Leeds’ energetic and transitional style can pose problems, particularly at Elland Road. However, City’s positional control, chance creation, and tactical discipline often prove decisive in such matchups.
Can Leeds disrupt Manchester City’s rhythm on home soil, or will City’s quality and title motivation secure another important victory?
Match Odds Prediction
| Market | Odds | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 5.60 | 4.6/1 | +460 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 7/2 | +370 |
| Man City | 1.63 | 8/13 | -159 |
Leeds United Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leeds
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds
- Leeds 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
- Everton 1–1 Leeds
Manchester City Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Man City 2–1 Newcastle
- Man City 3–0 Fulham
- Liverpool 1–2 Man City
- Tottenham 2–2 Man City
- Man City 2–0 Wolves
Leeds United this season statistics
- Played: 27
- Won: 7
- Drawn: 10
- Lost: 10
Leeds home form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 3
Manchester City this season statistics
- Played: 27
- Won: 17
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 5
Manchester City away form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 3
- Lost: 4
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Man City 3–2 Leeds
- Man City 2–1 Leeds
- Leeds 1–3 Man City
- Leeds 0–4 Man City
- Man City 7–0 Leeds
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Leeds United goals this season
- Played: 27
- Goals Scored: 37
- Goals Conceded: 46
- xG Scored per Match: 1.37
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.70
Leeds United home goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 22
- Goals Conceded: 18
- xG Scored per Match: 1.69
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.38
Manchester City goals this season
- Played: 27
- Goals Scored: 56
- Goals Conceded: 25
- xG Scored per Match: 2.07
- xG Conceded per Match: 0.93
Manchester City away goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 22
- Goals Conceded: 16
- xG Scored per Match: 1.69
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.23
Head-to-Head Goals Pattern
- Man City 3–1 Leeds
- Man City 2–1 Leeds
- Leeds 1–3 Man City
- Leeds 0–4 Man City
- Man City 7–0 Leeds
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Outcome | Odds | Fractional | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS – Yes | 1.75 | 8/11 | -133 |
| BTTS – No | 2.28 | 5/4 | +128 |
Leeds United clean sheets this season
- Played: 27
- Clean Sheets: 4
- Failed to Score: 7
Leeds United home clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Failed to Score: 3
Manchester City clean sheets this season
- Played: 27
- Clean Sheets: 11
- Failed to Score: 3
Manchester City away clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Failed to Score: 2
Head-to-Head BTTS Pattern
- Man City 3–1 Leeds
- Man City 2–1 Leeds
- Leeds 1–3 Man City
- Leeds 0–4 Man City
- Man City 7–0 Leeds
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | ~60–64% |
| Draw | ~20–24% |
| Leeds Win | ~14–18% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | ~96–98% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | ~82–86% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | ~66–71% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | ~44–49% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | ~29–34% |
| BTTS – Yes | ~55–60% |
| BTTS – No | ~40–45% |
| Manchester City Win to Nil | ~18–23% |
| Leeds Win to Nil | ~4–6% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Leeds 1–3 Man City | 54% |
| Leeds 1–2 Man City | 61% |
| Leeds 2–3 Man City | 26% |
| Leeds 0–2 Man City | 42% |
| Leeds 2–2 Man City | 20% |
| Leeds 0–3 Man City | 49% |
| Leeds 1–1 Man City | 58% |
| Leeds 2–1 Man City | 6% |
| Leeds 3–2 Man City | 4% |
My Picks
| Manchester Win or Draw |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Manchester City enter this encounter with a clear probability edge, driven by superior squad depth, tactical control, and consistent attacking efficiency. While Leeds’ home performances suggest they are capable of remaining competitive particularly through their high-energy, transition-focused approach City’s ability to dictate tempo and generate sustained pressure typically proves decisive in such matchups. The strong historical trend toward high-scoring contests further supports expectations of an open, chance-heavy game rather than a controlled stalemate. From a prediction and betting perspective, logical considerations include Manchester City win, Over 1.5 Goals, and potentially City win & BTTS Overall, the fixture profile leans toward a City-favoured outcome in what should be an entertaining, goal-influenced contest.
