After a disappointing 3–0 loss at the Etihad, Liverpool return to Anfield needing a reset. What was once a dominant title charge has slipped—poor form has pushed them down to third favourites in the title race behind Arsenal and Manchester City. Arne slot’s side will be desperate to regain momentum in front of their home fans.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, arrive with renewed confidence under new manager Sean Dyche. The last meeting at the City Ground ended in a 1–1 draw, and before that, Forest shocked the Reds with a 0–1 victory at Anfield—a result many still consider one of the big upsets of that season. Forest haven’t been consistent this year, but Dyche’s structure and defensive discipline do give them a puncher’s chance.
Liverpool will push hard knowing they cannot afford to lose ground in the title race again, but Forest have already shown they can frustrate the Reds. The big question is simple: Will Liverpool finally break the Forest resistance, or is another upset waiting at Anfield?
Odds Analysis
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 1.47 |
| Nottingham Forest Win | 7.8 |
| Draw | 5.1 |
The market is heavily tilted toward Liverpool, mainly due to their home strength at Anfield and Forest’s inconsistency. But the story is not that simple. Forest’s last visit to Anfield ended in a 0–1 shock victory, with Hudson-Odoi scoring in the 72nd minute under former manager Nuno. That game proved Forest can frustrate Liverpool.
Under Sean Dyche, Forest are tactically different—more compact, more physical, much harder to break down. That increases the chances of the game becoming scrappy or slowed down, which naturally pushes a draw into play more than the odds suggest.
Even then, Liverpool remain deserved favourites given their squad quality, pressing structure, and the must-win nature of this fixture. The realistic call from both stats and context:
Liverpool win remains the most likely outcome, with a small but real possibility of a draw.
Over/Under Goals
Although last season’s two meetings produced only three goals across both fixtures, this year’s defensive record of both sides changes the equation. Liverpool have conceded 17 goals already and kept only two home clean sheets, while Forest have yet to keep a single clean sheet in the league and concede an average of nearly 1.5 per match. These trends strongly support at least Over 1.5 Goals and lean toward Over 2.5 Goals, though the head-to-head history suggests caution for higher goal lines.
| Market | Probability | Reasoning |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% | Both teams have scored atleast one goal in most games this season; Forest concede often. |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 82% | Liverpool average high-scoring games; Forest concede 20 already. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | Liverpool’s defence is leaky (17 conceded), but Forest lack scoring power (10 goals). |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 35% | Head-to-head previous season had low-scoring matches (1-0 & 1-1). |
Anytime Goalscorer
| Player | G/A Probability |
|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 74% |
| Cody Gakpo | 48% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 26% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 36% |
BTTS
- BTTS Yes – 1.81
- BTTS No – 2.18
Match Logic
- In the last 7 head-to-heads,
- 5 matches had only one team scoring,
- 2 matches had BTTS.
- But 2024/25 season trend flips the script:
- Liverpool have conceded in almost every match (only 2 home clean sheets).
Liverpool’s defence hasn’t been reliable, and Forest do find moments on counters.
Crazy Historical Stats
1970s — the era that made this fixture iconic
This is the decade where Liverpool–Forest became huge, mostly due to Brian Clough’s Forest dynasty.
1977–78: Forest Knock Liverpool Out of Europe
- Forest beat Liverpool 2–0 on aggregate in the European Cup (first round).
- This is historically massive because Liverpool were the defending European champions.
- Forest went on to win the European Cup, shocking world football.
1978–79: Forest beat Liverpool 2–1 in the League Cup Final
- Goals by Kenny Burns and John Robertson.
- Gave Brian Clough his first major domestic trophy with Forest.
1970s League Battles
- Liverpool dominated the early 70s.
- Forest dominated late 70s under Clough — long unbeaten runs and very tight, defensive matches between the clubs.
1980s — famous clashes, including one of the biggest scorelines ever
This decade is loaded with iconic moments.
1989: Liverpool 5–0 Nottingham Forest (Anfield)
- Considered one of the greatest performances in English football history.
- John Barnes, Peter Beardsley & co. tore Forest apart.
- Liverpool fans still talk about this match as “peak Liverpool of the 80s.”
1988 FA Cup Semi-Final Controversy
- Liverpool beat Forest 2–1 in a dramatic semi-final.
- Forest claimed a late equaliser that was ruled out (offside), still debated by older fans.
1980–1984 League Meetings
- Tight, physical games between Dalglish’s Liverpool and Clough’s Forest.
- Forest won several big ones at the City Ground, especially early 80s.
1989 Hillsborough Disaster (Forest–Liverpool FA Cup semi)
- Tragic event during an FA Cup semi-final between these exact teams.
- Not a “football fact”, but historically extremely significant.
1990s — Forest resurgence & powerful Liverpool sides
This decade had a mix of high-scoring matches and shock results.
⭐ 1995: Liverpool 2–2 Nottingham Forest
- Stan Collymore scored twice against his future club.
- One of the most iconic Premier League encounters between them.
⭐ 1994: Forest 1–1 Liverpool
- Forest newly promoted under Frank Clark, fighting toe-to-toe with big clubs.
⭐ 1996: Liverpool smash Forest 4–2 at Anfield
- Robbie Fowler dominating, peak “Spice Boys” era.
⭐ 1997–98: Forest relegated but drew 1–1 with Liverpool
- Even during relegation struggles, Forest managed difficult performances.
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 35% |
| BTTS — Yes | 56% |
| BTTS — No | 44% |
| Mohamed Salah (G/A) | 74% |
| Cody Gakpo (G/A) | 48% |
| Hugo Ekitike (G/A) | 26% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White (G/A) | 36% |
| Liverpool to Win | 70% |
| Match Draw | 18% |
| Nottingham Forest to Win | 12% |
My Picks
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Result | Liverpool Win or Draw |
| Total Goals | Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Liverpool should control most of this match at Anfield, even though their recent form has dipped and Forest under Sean Dyche will be stubborn, compact, and physical. Dyche’s teams rarely make games easy, but Forest still concede too many chances, especially away from home, and haven’t shown the structure or consistency needed to repeat their shock win from last season. Liverpool have far more attacking quality, create higher-value chances, and usually respond strongly after big defeats. Forest can frustrate for spells, but over 90 minutes Liverpool’s pressure, tempo, and depth should be enough to avoid defeat. With both teams conceding regularly this season, expecting at least two goals in the match remains a solid angle.
Overall, Liverpool double chance and Over 1.5 goals stand out as the safest predictions for this fixture.
