Liverpool vs Wolves looks brutally one-sided on paper, and honestly, trying to sell this as a “maybe Wolves can surprise” game would be forcing a story that doesn’t really exist.
Liverpool come into this with momentum after a big 2–1 win at Spurs. Even though they’re only 5th, the context matters: they’re level on points with Chelsea and chasing top four, so there’s zero room for complacency. At Anfield, especially against bottom-table sides, Liverpool usually turn pressure into results even when performances aren’t perfect.
Wolves, on the other hand, are not just winless they look mentally fragile. Battling relegation is one thing, but having no win at this stage is a psychological weight that shows in games like the Brentford loss. Coming to Anfield in that state is close to the worst possible assignment.
Head-to-head history at Anfield also doesn’t help Wolves. Even when Liverpool aren’t flying, they still tend to get the job done against Wolves there. The “miracle” angle is fine for drama, but realistically Wolves would need Liverpool to massively underperform and themselves to play above their season level, that’s a double ask.
If I’m critical of one thing: don’t overthink this fixture. Sometimes bettors talk themselves into underdogs because football “can be unpredictable.” True but not all unpredictability is equally likely. This is one of those matches where Liverpool don’t need brilliance, just control and patience.
Bottom line:
A Wolves first win here would be shocking rather than surprising. Liverpool should dominate territory, chances, and eventually the scoreboard. Anything other than a home win would say more about Liverpool’s mentality than Wolves’ quality and right now, Liverpool’s motivation is far stronger.
Odds Analysis
- Liverpool 1.25 | Draw 7.4 | Wolves 13.5
These odds aren’t just “Liverpool favourites” they’re market saying Wolves almost have no path unless something extreme happens (red card, penalty chaos, early injury). A price of 13.5 usually reflects a team that’s both out of form and structurally weak away from home. That fits Wolves perfectly.
Form check (last 5 league games)
Liverpool
- W Spurs 1–2 (A)
- W Brighton 2–0 (H)
- D Leeds 3–3 (A)
- D Sunderland 1–1 (H)
- W West Ham 0–2 (A)
👉 Unbeaten in 5, winning away at tough grounds. Even draws came in games where they conceded sloppy goals, not from being outplayed.
Wolves
- L Brentford 0–2 (H)
- L Arsenal 2–1 (A)
- L Man United 1–4 (H)
- L Nottingham Forest 0–1 (H)
- L Aston Villa 1–0 (A)
👉 Five straight losses, three of them at home, which is a massive red flag. This isn’t just fixture difficulty — it’s a confidence and organisation issue.
Season context
Liverpool
- Played 17 | W9 D2 L6
- Home: W5 D1 L2
Not perfect at Anfield, but still winning the majority. Also chasing top 4 — motivation is high.
Wolves
- Played 17 | W0 D2 L15
- Away: W0 D1 L7
Let’s be blunt:
A team that hasn’t won any of 17 matches rarely suddenly wins away at Anfield. That’s not pessimism — that’s probability.
Head-to-head (last 5 Premier League meetings)
- Liverpool 2–1 Wolves
- Wolves 1–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–0 Wolves
- Wolves 1–3 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–0 Wolves
👉 Liverpool have won all 5, home and away. Wolves usually score once at best, and even that isn’t guaranteed.
Bottom line
- Liverpool win is the logical outcome, and the odds reflect that clearly.
- Wolves keeping it competitive would already be an achievement.
- A Wolves win would be one of the shocks of the season, not a normal upset.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Liverpool – season goal profile (17 matches)
- Goals scored: 28 → 1.65 per match
- Goals conceded: 25 → 1.47 per match
Estimated xG per match
- xG scored: ~1.8
- xG conceded: ~1.4
👉 Liverpool create chances consistently but concede more than a title-level side. Games involving them are rarely low-event.
Liverpool – home goal profile (8 matches)
- Goals scored: 13 → 1.63 per match
- Goals conceded: 9 → 1.12 per match
Estimated home xG per match
- xG scored (home): ~2.0
- xG conceded (home): ~1.1
👉 At Anfield, Liverpool generate high-quality chances, even when the scoreline doesn’t explode.
Wolves – season goal profile (17 matches)
- Goals scored: 7 → 0.41 per match
- Goals conceded: 23 → 1.35 per match
Estimated xG per match
- xG scored: ~0.7
- xG conceded: ~1.6
👉 Wolves are underperforming in attack and still conceding regularly. This is relegation-level output.
Wolves – away goal profile (8 matches)
- Goals scored: 2 → 0.25 per match
- Goals conceded: 14 → 1.75 per match
Estimated away xG per match
- xG scored (away): ~0.6
- xG conceded (away): ~2.0
👉 This is the key stat: Wolves away games trend heavily toward Liverpool-controlled matches with one-way pressure.
Head-to-head goals trend (last 5 Premier League meetings)
- Over 3.5 goals: 1 match
- Over 2.5 goals: 3 matches
- Over 1.5 goals: 5 matches
- Over 0.5 goals: 5 matches
👉 Goals have always happened, but not always goal-fests
What this actually means
- Over 0.5 goals: Almost certain
- Over 1.5 goals: Very strong
- Over 2.5 goals: Likely, but depends on Liverpool efficiency
- Over 3.5 goals: Needs Wolves to contribute or Liverpool to go ruthless
Wolves’ away xG (~0.6) tells you BTTS is fragile, but their defensive xG (~2.0) strongly supports Liverpool scoring 2+.
Sharp takeaway
If someone is pushing Over 3.5 goals confidently, they’re being aggressive, not smart.
The data supports controlled dominance, not chaos.
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G/A) | Anytime Scoring Probability |
|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike (8G, 1A) | 48% |
| Ryan Gravenberch (3G, 2A) | 22% |
| Hwang Hee-chan (1G) | 12% |
| Strand Larsen (1G) | 10% |
BTTS Odds
Odds context
- BTTS Yes – 2.14
- BTTS No – 1.85
Bookmakers are clearly leaning towards BTTS: NO, and the stats strongly back that stance.
Liverpool angle
- 5 clean sheets this season → solid defensive base.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches overall.
- At Anfield:
- 3 clean sheets.
- Scored in every home game → Liverpool scoring is almost a given.
Wolves angle (this is where BTTS collapses)
- 0 clean sheets all season.
- Failed to score in 10 matches overall.
Away from home:
- 0 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in all 6 away matches → this is a massive red flag for BTTS Yes.
Head-to-head (last 5 Premier League meetings)
- Liverpool 2–1 Wolves
- Wolves 1–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–0 Wolves
- Wolves 1–3 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–0 Wolves
- BTTS Yes: 3 matches
- BTTS No: 2 matches
But those Wolves goals came in much stronger Wolves sides than the current one.
Verdict on BTTS
You’d be forcing the bet to back BTTS Yes here.
Liverpool scoring looks highly likely, but Wolves scoring looks extremely unlikely, especially away at Anfield.
BTTS – NO is the logical, data-backed call.
BTTS Yes only lands if Liverpool switch off or Wolves nick a freak goal — not something you should rely on.
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 78% |
| Draw | 14% |
| Wolves Win | 8% |
| Liverpool Win or Draw (1X) | 92% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 95% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 30% |
| BTTS – Yes | 38% |
| BTTS – No | 62% |
| Liverpool Clean Sheet | 58% |
| Wolves Clean Sheet | 5% |
| Liverpool to Score First | 75% |
| Wolves to Score First | 10% |
| Liverpool Lead at Half-Time | 52% |
| Liverpool Win to Nil | 45% |
| Any Liverpool Goal (Team Total Over 0.5) | 96% |
| Wolves Team Total Over 0.5 | 28% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Liverpool Win |
| Ekitike Goal or Assist |
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Liverpool come into this fixture with a clear edge in every key area — form, squad depth, home advantage, and historical dominance over Wolves. Anfield has been a reliable source of goals this season, and Liverpool have scored in every home game, while Wolves remain winless, struggling badly in attack and failing to score in the majority of their away fixtures. Wolves’ lack of clean sheets, poor defensive numbers, and inability to control games on the road make it very difficult to see them resisting sustained pressure for 90 minutes. Liverpool may not always look airtight defensively, but against a Wolves side averaging almost no goals away from home, they should dictate the tempo early and create enough chances to put the game to bed. Expect Liverpool to control possession, generate high-quality chances, and win comfortably, with goals likely flowing once the first breakthrough arrives.
