After the sacking of Ruben Amorim, interim manager Michael Carrick has made an immediate impact at Old Trafford, guiding Manchester United to impressive victories over Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City and Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. Confidence is high as United now prepare to host Fulham in the upcoming Premier League Matchweek.
Fulham, however, arrive in good form after securing a home win against Brighton at Craven Cottage. The last meeting between these two sides ended in a 1–1 draw, showing how competitive this fixture has recently become.
In the league standings, Manchester United currently sit 4th with 38 points, firmly in the Champions League spots, while Fulham are pushing for European qualification in 7th place with 34 points.
The big question remains can Michael Carrick continue his dream start with a third straight victory, or will Marco Silva’s Fulham cause another upset at Old Trafford?
Odds Analysis
Manchester United: 1.63
Fulham: 5.7
Draw: 4.6
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Manchester United
- Arsenal 2–3 Man United
- Man United 2–0 Man City
- Burnley 2–2 Man United
- Leeds 1–1 Man United
- Man United 1–1 Wolves
Manchester United are unbeaten in their last five league matches, with two impressive wins against Arsenal and Manchester City, along with three draws. This shows strong momentum, resilience, and growing confidence.
Fulham
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton
- Leeds 1–0 Fulham
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham
Fulham have recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they managed good results against Chelsea and Liverpool, they also lost away to Leeds. Overall, their form appears decent but inconsistent.
Season Performance
Manchester United (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Won: 10
- Drawn: 8
- Lost: 5
United have shown solid consistency this season, with only five defeats. The high number of draws highlights how difficult they are to beat.
Manchester United (Home)
- Played: 11
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 3
- Lost: 2
At home, United are strong and confident, winning more than half of their matches and losing only twice.
Fulham (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Won: 10
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 9
Fulham have matched United’s wins but have suffered almost double the losses, reflecting inconsistency and defensive struggles.
Fulham (Away)
- Played: 11
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 6
Fulham struggle on the road, losing more than half of their away fixtures.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Fulham 1–1 Man United (Aug 2025)
- Fulham 0–1 Man United (Jan 2025)
- Man United 1–0 Fulham (Aug 2024)
- Man United 1–2 Fulham (Feb 2024)
- Fulham 0–1 Man United (Nov 2023)
Manchester United have won three of the last five meetings, Fulham one, with one draw. This gives United a slight recent advantage.
✅ United are strong at home
✅ Fulham are weak away
✅ H2H favors United
The only reason for a draw is:
- United’s habit of close games
- Fulham being stubborn defensively
More logical probabilities
- Man United win: ~50–55%
- Draw: ~25–30%
- Fulham win: ~15–20%
Smarter betting-style angles (better than straight draw)
If you’re playing safe or thinking like a pro tipster:
👉 Man United Win
👉 Man United or Draw
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Manchester United (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Scored: 41
- Conceded: 34
- xG per match: 1.78
- xGA per match: 1.48
Manchester United average close to two expected goals per game while also conceding over one expected goal. This indicates open matches with regular scoring opportunities. Most of their fixtures tend to pass the 1.5 goals line.
Manchester United (Home)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 20
- Conceded: 13
- xG per match: 1.82
- xGA per match: 1.18
At home, United are more controlled defensively while maintaining strong attacking output. Their home games commonly produce two or more goals, but rarely turn into very high-scoring contests.
Fulham (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Scored: 32
- Conceded: 32
- xG per match: 1.39
- xGA per match: 1.39
Fulham’s numbers are perfectly balanced, showing that many of their matches are tight and competitive, often decided by small margins.
Fulham (Away)
- Played: 11
- Scored: 11
- Conceded: 18
- xG per match: 1.10
- xGA per match: 1.60
Fulham struggle away from home, creating fewer chances while allowing significantly more to opponents. This increases the likelihood of the home side scoring.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Fulham 1–1 Man United
- Fulham 0–1 Man United
- Man United 1–0 Fulham
- Man United 1–2 Fulham
- Fulham 0–1 Man United
Across the last five meetings, only 7 total goals have been scored (average 1.4 per match).
Just one match crossed over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of tight, low-scoring encounters.
What the numbers actually point to
• United strong home attack
• Fulham weak away defense
• Historically low-scoring H2H
You get something like:
👉 Man United win
👉 Over 0.5 goals or 1.5 goals
👉 Under 3.5 goals
Most likely scorelines by data:
1-0, 2-0, or 2-1
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (G/A) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo (8G + 1A) | 42% |
| Matheus Cunha (5G + 2A) | 35% |
| Bruno Fernandes (5G + 10A) | 55% |
| Harry Wilson (8G + 4A) | 48% |
| Raúl Jiménez (5G + 3A) | 38% |
| Emile Smith Rowe (3G) | 22% |
BTTS Odds
Odds
- BTTS Yes: 1.80
- BTTS No: 2.18
Manchester United (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 2
United score in most matches, failing to find the net only twice this season. However, with just three clean sheets, they often concede, which keeps BTTS in play frequently.
Manchester United (Home)
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 1
At home, United are reliable scorers and more solid defensively. They rarely fail to score, but they don’t always keep opponents out.
Fulham (Overall)
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 4
Fulham have a moderate defensive record and usually manage to score, though there are occasional blanks.
Fulham (Away)
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 2
Away from home, Fulham concede frequently and have struggled to keep clean sheets, but they can still score in some matches.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Fulham 1–1 Man United
- Fulham 0–1 Man United
- Man United 1–0 Fulham
- Man United 1–2 Fulham
- Fulham 0–1 Man United
BTTS occurred in 2 of the last 5 meetings, suggesting that most clashes between these sides are tight and often see one team fail to score.
What the data really suggests
✅ United almost always score (especially at home)
⚠️ Fulham scoring away is inconsistent
📉 H2H heavily leans toward low scoring with one side blanking
Key Facts
Fulham have won only once in their last 22 head-to-head fixtures against Manchester United in all competitions that single victory came in 2024.
Probability Table
| Market | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Man United Win | 52 |
| Draw | 28 |
| Fulham Win | 20 |
| Over 0.5 Goals | 95 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 78 |
| BTTS Yes | 43 |
| BTTS No | 57 |
My Picks
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Double Chance | Manchester United Win Or Draw |
Final Verdict
With momentum on their side and strong home performances this season, Manchester United enter this clash as slight favorites. Michael Carrick’s impact has brought renewed confidence and intensity, especially after wins over top sides like Manchester City and Arsenal. While Fulham have shown they can compete and remain dangerous, their away struggles and recent head-to-head record against United suggest a tough challenge at Old Trafford. Expect a tight contest, but United’s quality and home advantage should give them the edge, likely in a controlled, low-to-medium scoring match.
