Nottingham Forest – The post-Ange Postecoglou era has been anything but smooth. Since his appointment, Forest have failed to win a single game and now sit 17th in the Premier League, hovering above the relegation zone. However, the City Ground crowd remains one of the most vocal in England, and Ange will be hoping to channel that energy to inspire his first win as Forest boss. A result here could shift momentum and ease early-season pressure.
Chelsea – Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea continue to show signs of tactical maturity and cohesion. The 2-1 victory against Liverpool at Stamford Bridge was their statement win of the season so far — combining pressing intensity with fluid attacking transitions. Sitting 7th on the table with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, the Blues will want to capitalize on Forest’s poor form to keep momentum going. Their last visit to the City Ground ended in a narrow 1-0 win, Chelsea will fancy their chances to repeat that result.
Odds Analysis
Bookmakers have slightly edged Chelsea as favourites with odds around 2.00, while Nottingham Forest sit at 4.00 and a draw at 3.80. The market clearly leans toward an away win, though not an outright lock.
Historically, the fixture supports the odds: in the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea have won 4, Forest just 1, and 3 ended in draws. The gap in quality and squad depth between the two sides remains clear, and Chelsea’s recent confidence boost after defeating Liverpool adds weight to their favourite status.
However, Forest’s urgency to escape the relegation threat can make this a difficult fixture for the Blues. If Forest fail to secure at least a point, they could slip into the relegation zone depending on other results this weekend — which adds psychological pressure.
Chances of Winning %
Over/Under Goals
This fixture comes right after an international break, which often throws a wrench into team rhythm and momentum — making goal markets unpredictable. Players return with varying fatigue levels, minor knocks, and tactical disconnections, which can affect both attacking sharpness and defensive discipline.
Looking at form, Nottingham Forest have not kept a single clean sheet across all competitions this season — Premier League, EFL Cup, or Europa League — which reflects their fragile defensive structure.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have kept two clean sheets, both at Stamford Bridge, but have struggled to maintain that same defensive control away from home.
Given these dynamics, this fixture feels like a low-scoring contest, especially if Forest set up deep and compact — similar to their approach against Arsenal earlier in the season.
A tight, cautious post-break match is expected where one goal could decide it.
Anytime Goalscorer
Nottingham Forest: Predicting a goalscorer for Nottingham Forest remains a tough call. The side has scored just 5 goals in 7 Premier League matches, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which is slightly below last season’s rate of 1.5. Their goals have been spread across multiple players — Chris Wood (2 goals) being the most reliable finisher, while Callum Hudson-Odoi, Dan Ndoye, and Neco Williams have each added one.
Chelsea: Surprisingly, Moises Caicedo has been their top scorer with 3 goals, ssame of Enzo Fernández, who also has 3. If his current form continues, he could easily emerge as one of the best defensive midfielders in the league this season.
Adding to that, Estevão, the young Brazilian prodigy, has already notched 1 goal and continues to impress with his confidence, flair, and decision-making. His ability to cut inside and create chances gives him a strong chance of finding the net again, especially against a shaky Forest defence.
BTTS
The BTTS odds stand at Yes – 1.66 and No – 2.26, with bookmakers clearly leaning towards both teams finding the net.
Here’s why that makes sense:
Nottingham Forest have failed to keep a single clean sheet this season across all competitions — Premier League, EFL Cup, and Europa League. That’s a clear defensive weakness that Chelsea can exploit.
However, playing at home, Forest tend to show more attacking intent and have managed to score in most of their recent City Ground fixtures, regardless of the result.
Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca, have been improving offensively and are coming off a confident 2–1 win against Liverpool. But their two clean sheets this season have both come at Stamford Bridge, not away.
So, with Chelsea’s away defence still untested and Forest’s leaky backline, this fixture has the ingredients for a “Yes” BTTS outcome — likely a tight game with goals at both ends, something like 1-2 or 1-1.
Head-to-Head Facts
They’ve played over 94 matches in all competitions. chelseafc.com+2chelseafc.com+2
Wins: Chelsea have won about 40-42 of those; Forest have won ~27. chelseafc.com+1
Draws: ~30-31 matches ended in draws. Sports Mole+1
At City Ground (Forest home): Forest have had some success — out of ~14 meetings there, Forest won 7, Chelsea 3, with some draws. chelseafc.com+2chelseafc.com+2
Among more recent results: Chelsea won 1-0 at Forest on 25 May 2025. Sports Mole+1
Also: earlier in 2024, Chelsea and Forest drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge. Sports Mole+1
Recent Meetings (Last 5 to 6 Matches)
- Match on 25 May 2025: Forest 0-1 Chelsea – a narrow Chelsea win. m.aiscore.com+3aiscore.com+3chelsealive.net+3
- 6 Oct 2024: Chelsea 1-1 Forest – draw. m.aiscore.com+3aiscore.com+3chelsealive.net+3
- 11 May 2024: Forest 2-3 Chelsea – a high-scoring affair, both teams scored and multiple lead changes. aiscore.com+2cfcbetting.co.uk+2
- 2 Sep 2023: Chelsea 0-1 Forest – Forest won away at Stamford Bridge. aiscore.com+2cfcbetting.co.uk+2
- 13 May 2023: Chelsea 2-2 Forest – another draw. aiscore.com+2cfcbetting.co.uk+2
Historic Unforgettable Moments
Historic Heavy Win: Forest 7-0 Chelsea (1990-91)
One of Forest’s biggest ever victories against Chelsea came in the 1990-91 season (Division One), when Forest thrashed Chelsea 7-0 at home. Chelsea FC+1
Jimmy Greaves Hat-Trick / Four Goals Finale
Back in April 1961, Jimmy Greaves scored his final match hat-trick (four goals) for Chelsea in a 4-3 win over Forest at the City Ground — a legendary moment for both Greaves and the rivalry.
Probability Table
| Market / Event | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 95% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| BTTS | 82% |
| João Pedro – Goal or Assist | 78% |
| Chris Wood – Goal or Assist | 64% |
My Picks
Over 1.5 Goals
BTTS – Yes
Final Verdict
This fixture has the makings of a tight but goal-scoring encounter. Nottingham Forest are desperate to find rhythm under Ange Postecoglou after failing to win any of their last seven Premier League matches. Despite their struggles, they’ve shown intent in attack and usually manage to get on the scoresheet at home. However, their defensive line remains shaky — no clean sheets in any competition this season highlight their biggest weakness.
Chelsea, on the other hand, look sharper under Enzo Maresca. Their 2–1 win over Liverpool before the international break gave them momentum. Away form, though, is still inconsistent — they concede goals even when dominating possession.
Historically, this matchup leans Chelsea’s way. They’ve won 4 of the last 8 meetings, losing only once. Forest often make things difficult at the City Ground, but quality and depth are heavily on Chelsea’s side.
Given Forest’s poor defensive record and Chelsea’s attacking form, Over 1.5 Goals feels almost inevitable — at least one side should score twice or both will net once.
