Liverpool travel to the City Ground for an intriguing Premier League Matchweek 27 encounter against Nottingham Forest a fixture that has recently proven surprisingly difficult for the Reds. Forest have emerged as an uncomfortable opponent, with Liverpool failing to win their last three consecutive meetings. The most striking result came at Anfield, where Nottingham Forest delivered a commanding 0–3 victory, underlining their ability to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm.
Nottingham Forest enter this match following a disciplined 0–0 draw against Wolves at the City Ground. While goals have been limited, Forest’s defensive organisation continues to play a crucial role in their survival battle. Liverpool, meanwhile, arrive with renewed confidence. They secured a valuable 0–1 away win against Sunderland notably handing Sunderland their first home defeat of the season before producing an emphatic 3–0 FA Cup victory over Brighton at Anfield.
The most recent league meeting at the City Ground ended in a 1–1 draw, highlighting Forest’s ability to remain competitive on home soil.
Liverpool currently sit 6th in the Premier League table, pushing for Champions League qualification. Nottingham Forest occupy 17th position, hovering just above the relegation zone with only a narrow points cushion.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Key Points:
1. Across the last 8 meetings (all competitions), 4 matches have been decided by a single goal margin (1–0 / 0–1), reflecting a pattern of tightly contested encounters.
2. Only one draw occurred during that stretch — a 1–1 stalemate in January 2025.
3. In the last 4 fixtures at the City Ground, 3 matches produced just one goal, while one ended 1–1.
Match Context
Forest’s compact defensive structure
Liverpool’s possession-driven attacking approach
Historical tendency toward tight scorelines
Liverpool’s need for points in the top-four race
Forest are likely to prioritise defensive discipline, while Liverpool will aim to control tempo and break down resistance.
Can Nottingham Forest reproduce their disruptive performances at the City Ground, or will Arne Slot’s tactical adjustments deliver Liverpool a crucial away victory?
Match Odds Prediction
- Nottingham Forest: 4.50
- Draw: 4.10
- Liverpool: 1.85
Nottingham Forest Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Wolves
- Leeds 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
Nottingham Forest have recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss.
Liverpool Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 1–2 Man City
- Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
Liverpool have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
Nottingham Forest this season statistics
- Played: 26
- Won: 7
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 13
Forest’s season reflects inconsistency, with losses outweighing wins.
Nottingham Forest home form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 6
Forest have struggled to assert dominance at the City Ground.
Liverpool this season statistics
- Played: 26
- Won: 12
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 8
Liverpool maintain a stronger overall record supported by superior squad quality.
Liverpool away form this season
- Played: 13
- Won: 5
- Drawn: 3
- Lost: 5
Liverpool’s away performances remain inconsistent.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest – 3 wins
Liverpool – 2 wins
Extremely competitive matchup
Recent meetings highlight Forest’s ability to trouble Liverpool.
Overall Odds View
Liverpool enter as deserved favourites based on:
Superior squad depth
Higher attacking ceiling
Better season record
However:
Nottingham Forest present genuine upset potential
Liverpool’s away inconsistency increases volatility
Forest’s low-scoring defensive style complicates match flow
Over/Under Goals Predictions & Xg Statistics
Nottingham Forest goals this season
- Played: 26
- Goals Scored: 25
- Goals Conceded: 38
- xG Scored per Match: 0.96
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.46
Nottingham Forest’s numbers highlight a low-output attack combined with defensive vulnerability. Their matches tend to rely on structure rather than attacking intensity.
Nottingham Forest home goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 13
- Goals Conceded: 18
- xG Scored per Match: 1.00
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.38
Forest’s home matches average roughly 2.3 total goals, suggesting controlled game environments with moderate scoring levels.
Liverpool goals this season
- Played: 26
- Goals Scored: 41
- Goals Conceded: 35
- xG Scored per Match: 1.58
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.35
Liverpool present a contrasting profile:
Strong attacking production
Frequent defensive concessions
Higher volatility matches
Liverpool away goals this season
- Played: 13
- Goals Scored: 20
- Goals Conceded: 21
- xG Scored per Match: 1.54
- xG Conceded per Match: 1.62
Liverpool’s away matches frequently exceed 3 total goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive exposure.
Head-to-Head Goals Pattern
Recent meetings:
- Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest
Key Observations:
3 of the last 5 matches → 2 goals or fewer
4 of the last 5 → At least one clean sheet
BTTS outcomes relatively rare
Over/Under Goals Prediction
Over Goals Supporting Factors
Liverpool’s open away profile
Liverpool’s defensive instability
Forest’s defensive concessions
Under Goals Supporting Factors
Forest’s low-scoring attack
Forest’s structured defensive style
H2H low-goal pattern
Frequent clean sheet outcomes
Verdict Lean 2.5 Goals (Stronger Probability Bias)
Despite Liverpool’s high-scoring tendencies, Nottingham Forest’s match style and historical H2H patterns strongly favour lower goal totals.
Safer alternatives:
Under 3.5 Goals
Liverpool Win & Under Goals Combos
Anytime Goalscorer Prediction
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike (10G / 2A) | 40% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White (6G / 2A) | 30% |
| Mohamed Salah (4G / 6A) | 30% |
| Cody Gakpo (5G / 3A) | 25% |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi (3G / 1A) | 20% |
| Omari Hutchinson (1G / 3A) | 10% |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
- Yes: 1.73
- No: 2.32
Nottingham Forest clean sheets this season
- Played: 26
- Clean Sheets: 6
- Failed to Score: 12
Forest’s attacking inconsistency is the key factor:
Failed to score in nearly half of their matches
Limited offensive reliability
Defensive resilience occasionally present
Nottingham Forest home clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Failed to Score: 7
Forest’s home data reinforces the concern:
Failed to score in more than 50% of home games
Moderate defensive record
Weak BTTS tendency at the City Ground
Liverpool clean sheets this season
- Played: 26
- Clean Sheets: 8
- Failed to Score: 4
Liverpool’s attack remains dependable:
Rare scoring blanks
Strong chance creation
BTTS largely influenced by defensive behaviour
Liverpool away clean sheets this season
- Played: 13
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Failed to Score: 1
Liverpool’s away pattern suggests:
Frequent concessions
Rare clean sheets
Generally stronger BTTS environment
Head-to-Head BTTS Pattern
Recent meetings:
- Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest
Key Observations:
BTTS – Yes: 1 / 5 matches
BTTS – No: 4 / 5 matches
Frequent clean sheet outcomes
This fixture historically trends toward tight, low-scoring contests.
Factors Limiting BTTS – Yes
Nottingham Forest’s high scoring blanks
Forest’s weak home scoring record
Strong H2H clean sheet pattern
Factors Supporting BTTS – Yes
Liverpool concede frequently away
Liverpool’s attacking consistency
Forest’s scoring struggles remain the dominant influence.
Verdict Lean
BTTS – Slight Lean: NO (Probability-Oriented View)
Despite Liverpool’s away defensive vulnerability, Nottingham Forest’s inconsistent attack reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Win Probability
| Outcome | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | ~48–52% |
| Draw | ~26–29% |
| Nottingham Forest Win | ~21–24% |
| Over 0.5 Goals | ~94–96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | ~72–76% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | ~46–50% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | ~50–54% |
| BTTS – Yes | ~42–46% |
| BTTS – No | ~54–58% |
| Liverpool Win to Nil | ~22–26% |
| Forest Win to Nil | ~8–11% |
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Correct Score Predictions Probability
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1–0 Nottingham Forest | 18–22% |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Liverpool | 14–18% |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool | 13–17% |
| Nottingham Forest 1–0 Liverpool | 9–12% |
| Liverpool 2–0 Nottingham Forest | 8–11% |
| Nottingham Forest 0–0 Liverpool | 6–9% |
| Liverpool 2–1 Nottingham Forest | 5–8% |
| Nottingham Forest 2–1 Liverpool | 4–6% |
| Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest | 3–5% |
| High-Scoring Draw (2–2) | 2–4% |
My Picks
| Over 1.5 Goals |
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Final Verdict
This matchup shapes up as a classic tension between Liverpool’s attacking ambition and Nottingham Forest’s defensive discipline. While Liverpool possess the superior squad quality and greater attacking ceiling, Forest’s ability to compress space and force low-tempo contests makes this far from a straightforward fixture. The historical trend of tight scorelines at the City Ground, combined with Forest’s structured approach, suggests Liverpool may face another controlled, low-margin battle rather than an open, high-scoring affair. From a prediction and betting perspective, logical considerations include Liverpool win (moderate confidence), Under goals markets, and potentially Liverpool win & Under 3.5 Goals. Overall, the fixture profile leans toward a narrowly contested game where patience, efficiency, and defensive organisation are likely to dictate the outcome.
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