The final fixture of Matchweek 24 sees Sunderland welcome Burnley to the Stadium of Light in a clash with very different league ambitions.
Sunderland come into this game after a 3–1 defeat away to West Ham, where defensive lapses proved costly. Despite that loss, the Black Cats remain comfortably placed in 11th position, enjoying a stable season in mid-table.
Burnley, meanwhile, arrive with a boost of confidence after a 2–2 draw against Tottenham Hotspur at Turf Moor, showing strong fighting spirit against a higher-ranked side. However, the Clarets are still stuck in the relegation zone in 19th place, making every point crucial in their battle for survival.
The last head-to-head meeting between these two sides ended in a 2–0 victory for Burnley at Turf Moor, giving the visitors psychological edge going into this clash.
Now back on home soil, Sunderland will be keen to respond and take revenge, while Burnley will be aiming to build momentum and snatch valuable points away from home.
👉 Can Sunderland use home advantage to secure all three points, or will Burnley continue their fight with another positive result on the road?
Odds Analysis
Sunderland – 1.86
Draw – 3.65
Burnley – 5.10
Bookmakers have made Sunderland clear favourites for this clash, largely due to their strong home form and Burnley’s struggles throughout the season. Burnley are heavy underdogs, while the draw remains a possible outcome given the tight nature of past meetings.
Recent Form (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
Sunderland
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland
- Tottenham 1–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 0–0 Manchester City
Sunderland have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in their last five matches. They picked up impressive draws against Manchester City and Tottenham but failed to score in two of those games.
👉 Overall, their recent form has been mixed, showing both resilience and inconsistency.
Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Manchester United
- Brighton 2–0 Burnley
- Burnley 1–3 Newcastle
Burnley are without a win in their last five matches, registering 3 draws and 2 losses. They have conceded frequently and struggled to turn performances into victories.
👉 Their recent form has been weak, mainly due to defensive issues.
Season Performance
Sunderland
- Played: 23
- Won: 8
- Drawn: 9
- Lost: 6
Sunderland have been competitive this season, losing only six matches and drawing many close contests. Their record reflects a solid mid-table side.
Sunderland – Home Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 6
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 0
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home this season, winning six games and drawing five. The Stadium of Light has been a major strength for them.
👉 Home advantage is a key factor in this matchup.
Burnley
- Played: 23
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 14
Burnley have endured a difficult campaign, managing just three wins while suffering fourteen defeats. They have regularly conceded goals and sit among the league’s weaker sides.
Burnley – Away Record
- Played: 11
- Won: 1
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 8
Burnley have won just once away from home and lost eight of their eleven road games.
👉 Away form is a major weakness.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Burnley 2–0 Sunderland (23 August 2025)
- Sunderland 0–0 Burnley (18 March 2017)
- Burnley 4–1 Sunderland (31 December 2016)
- Sunderland 2–0 Burnley (31 January 2015)
- Burnley 0–0 Sunderland (20 September 2014)
Burnley have won two of the last five meetings, with two draws and one Sunderland victory.
👉 Historically, this fixture has often been closely contested.
Odds Verdict
Despite the tight head-to-head history, the current season form strongly favours Sunderland. Their unbeaten home record contrasts sharply with Burnley’s poor away performances and overall struggles.
While Sunderland’s recent form has been mixed, their home strength gives them a clear edge against a Burnley side that continues to leak goals and struggle for wins.
👉 The market’s favour toward Sunderland looks justified, with the hosts appearing the more reliable side to take points though a close match or draw remains a possibility.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Sunderland – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 24
- Conceded: 26
- xG scored per match: 1.06
- xG conceded per match: 1.10
Sunderland average just over 1 goal scored and around 1 goal conceded per match, showing fairly balanced performances.
👉 Their matches usually stay in the low to medium scoring range, rather than turning into high-scoring affairs.
Sunderland – Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 18
- Conceded: 9
- xG scored per match: 1.10
- xG conceded per match: 0.80
At the Stadium of Light, Sunderland are much stronger defensively, conceding fewer than one goal per match on average. They also score more freely at home.
👉 Home games often finish with controlled scorelines such as 1–0, 2–0, or 2–1.
Burnley – Overall
- Played: 23
- Scored: 25
- Conceded: 44
- xG scored per match: 1.00
- xG conceded per match: 1.90
Burnley concede heavily, allowing nearly 2 goals per match on average. While they score around one goal per game, their defensive weakness leads to many goal-filled matches.
👉 Burnley games often lean toward higher goal totals, especially when facing stronger sides.
Burnley – Away Performance
- Played: 11
- Scored: 13
- Conceded: 27
- xG scored per match: 0.90
- xG conceded per match: 2.30
Away from home, Burnley struggle badly at the back, conceding more than 2 goals per match on average.
👉 Away fixtures frequently finish with 2+ goals conceded by Burnley, pushing matches toward the Over markets.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Burnley 2–0 Sunderland (23 August 2025)
- Sunderland 0–0 Burnley (18 March 2017)
- Burnley 4–1 Sunderland (31 December 2016)
- Sunderland 2–0 Burnley (31 January 2015)
- Burnley 0–0 Sunderland (20 September 2014)
Historically, this fixture has produced several low-scoring draws and tight matches, though there have been occasional higher-scoring results.
👉 Overall trend leans slightly toward lower goal totals, especially in Sunderland home games.
📌 Over/Under Final Verdict
- Sunderland are defensively solid at home
- Burnley concede heavily, especially away
- Head-to-head history often stays tight
Over 1.5 Goals → Medium to High chance ✅
Under 2.5 Goals → Medium chance ⚠️
Burnley’s poor defence increases the chance of at least two goals, but Sunderland’s controlled home style may prevent the game from becoming a goal fest.
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony (5G + 1A) | 34% |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (3G) | 24% |
| Lyle Foster (3G + 1A) | 28% |
| Brian Brobbey (5G + 1A) | 40% |
| Wilson Isidor (4G) | 32% |
| Enzo Le Fée (3G + 4A) | 42% |
BTTS Odds
Yes: 2.12
No: 1.86
The market slightly favours BTTS No, but recent home and away trends suggest both outcomes remain possible.
Sunderland Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 7
- Failed to score: 8
Sunderland have kept a decent number of clean sheets but have also failed to score in eight matches, showing some inconsistency in attack.
👉 BTTS has been mixed in their games.
Sunderland – Home Performance
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 1
At home, Sunderland usually find the net and rarely fail to score. However, they do not always keep opponents out.
👉 Home fixtures tend to lean toward BTTS Yes.
Burnley Overall
- Played: 23
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 7
Burnley rarely keep clean sheets and occasionally struggle to score, creating mixed BTTS outcomes across the season.
👉 Slight tendency toward BTTS Yes.
✈️ Burnley – Away Performance
- Played: 11
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 2
Away from home, Burnley often concede but usually manage to score as well.
👉 Away matches frequently support BTTS Yes.
Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 Premier League Matches)
- Burnley 2–0 Sunderland (23 August 2025)
- Sunderland 0–0 Burnley (18 March 2017)
- Burnley 4–1 Sunderland (31 December 2016)
- Sunderland 2–0 Burnley (31 January 2015)
- Burnley 0–0 Sunderland (20 September 2014)
Out of the last five meetings:
- BTTS Yes – 1 match
- BTTS No – 4 matches
👉 Historically, this fixture has been low-scoring with clean sheets common.
BTTS Final Verdict
- Sunderland usually score at home
- Burnley often concede away
- But head-to-head history strongly favours low-scoring games
BTTS Yes → Slight edge (based on current form)
BTTS No → Strong historical support
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 55% |
| Draw | 28% |
| Burnley Win | 17% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% |
| BTTS – Yes | 52% |
| BTTS – No | 48% |
| Sunderland Clean Sheet | 35% |
| Burnley Clean Sheet | 12% |
| Enzo Le Fée (Goal/Assist) | 42% |
| Brian Brobbey (Goal/Assist) | 40% |
| Jaidon Anthony (Goal/Assist) | 34% |
| Wilson Isidor (Goal/Assist) | 32% |
| Lyle Foster (Goal/Assist) | 28% |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (Goal/Assist) | 24% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Sunderland Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
| Over 0.5 Total Goals |
| Over 1.5 Total Goals |
Final Verdict
Sunderland head into this clash with a clear advantage thanks to their strong home form, having remained unbeaten at the Stadium of Light this season, while Burnley continue to struggle both overall and away from home. Although Burnley showed resilience in their recent draw against Tottenham, their defensive issues and poor road record make it difficult to back them confidently. Sunderland’s recent inconsistency is outweighed by their home strength, which has been a major factor throughout the campaign. Overall, the hosts appear well placed to bounce back and secure a positive result, with a Sunderland win or draw looking the most likely outcome in what should be a competitive but controlled contest.
Also Read –
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace Predictions
Aston Villa vs Brentford Predictions
