Tottenham return home for a London derby against Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, looking to bounce back after two painful defeats a 4–1 loss at the Emirates in the league and a chaotic 5–3 defeat to PSG in the Champions League. Thomas Frank will be demanding a strong reaction from his side to avoid slipping into a negative spiral.
Fulham, meanwhile, travel with confidence after a narrow but important 1–0 win over Sunderland at Craven Cottage. In the league table, Spurs sit 9th with 18 points, while Fulham are 15th on 14 points — still uncomfortably close to the relegation zone.
The recent head-to-head at Tottenham ended in a 1–1 draw last season under Ange Postecoglou. The reverse fixture at Craven Cottage was a 2–0 win for Fulham, with late goals from Rodrigo Muniz and Ryan Sessegnon — both super-sub impacts that changed the game.
With Spurs looking vulnerable at the back and Fulham showing signs of steady improvement, this matchup raises a serious question: can Spurs stop the slide, or are they heading toward a third straight defeat?
Odds Analysis
Spurs: 2.26
Fulham: 3.55
Draw: 3.50
Bookmakers lean slightly toward Spurs, but the gap is not wide — which already signals that confidence in Tottenham is shaky due to their recent form and defensive issues.
Recent Premier League Form
Tottenham
- ❌ 1–4 vs Arsenal (A)
- 🤝 2–2 vs Man United (H)
- ❌ 0–1 vs Chelsea (H)
- ✅ 3–0 vs Everton (A)
- ❌ 1–2 vs Aston Villa (H)
Summary:
Spurs have lost 3 of their last 5 league games and 2 straight home matches.
Fulham
- ✅ 1–0 vs Sunderland (H)
- ❌ 0–2 vs Everton (A)
- ✅ 3–0 vs Wolves (H)
- ❌ 1–2 vs Newcastle (A)
- ❌ 0–1 vs Arsenal (H)
Summary:
Fulham are inconsistent — 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 — and their away form is the biggest concern.
Head-to-Head – Last 5 Meetings
- Fulham 2–0 Spurs
- Spurs 1–1 Fulham
- Fulham 3–0 Spurs
- Spurs 2–0 Fulham
- Fulham 0–1 Spurs
Summary:
Very mixed H2H. No clear dominating side. Both teams have shut each other out multiple times — makes this fixture unpredictable.
Current Season Performance
Tottenham (12 matches)
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 3
- Losses: 4
Spurs at Home (6 matches)
- Wins: 1
- Draws: 2
- Losses: 3
⚠️ Home table position:
If only home-games were counted, Spurs sit in the relegation zone.
This clearly contradicts the odds slightly favouring them.
Fulham (12 matches)
- Wins: 4
- Draws: 2
- Losses: 6
Fulham Away (6 matches)
- Wins: 0
- Draws: 1
- Losses: 5
⚠️ Away table position:
Based on away form alone, Fulham are also in the relegation zone.
Verdict on the Odds
- Spurs have a terrible home record
- Fulham have an equally terrible away record
- H2H is mixed
- Both teams are underperforming
That’s why the odds don’t fully trust either side.
Spurs get a slight edge only because Fulham are dreadful away, not because Spurs are strong at home.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Tottenham Hotspur – Season Stats
- Goals Scored: 20
- Goals Conceded: 14
- Total Goals in Matches: 34 (avg 2.83 goals/game)
Spurs at Home (6 matches)
- Goals Scored: 7
- Goals Conceded: 7
- Total Goals at Home: 14 (avg 2.33 goals/game)
Home matches are slightly lower scoring than their away matches.
Fulham – Season Stats
- Goals Scored: 13
- Goals Conceded: 16
- Total Goals in Matches: 29 (avg 2.41 goals/game)
Fulham Away (6 matches)
- Goals Scored: 4
- Goals Conceded: 13
- Total Goals Away: 17 (avg 2.83 goals/game)
Fulham concede heavily away — 2.16 goals conceded per away match.
Head-to-Head Goals (Last 5 Matches)
Using your H2H list:
- Fulham 2–0 Spurs → 2 goals
- Spurs 1–1 Fulham → 2 goals
- Fulham 3–0 Spurs → 3 goals
- Spurs 2–0 Fulham → 2 goals
- Fulham 0–1 Spurs → 1 goal
Total goals in last 5 meetings: 10
→ Average: 2.0 goals per match (low-scoring historically)
Over 0.5 Goals – Very Likely
Both sides always concede; only one H2H ended 0–0 in the last decade (not in this list).
Over 1.5 Goals – Likely
- Spurs games average 2.83 goals
- Fulham away games avg 2.83 goals
- Fulham concede heavily away → 13 goals in 6 matches
This line should be crossed.
Over 2.5 Goals – 50/50
- H2H suggests lower scoring (average 2.0)
- Current season suggests medium scoring (2.4–2.8 range)
- Spurs without Son/Højbjerg goals lately struggle
- Fulham away scoring is very low (only 4 goals in 6 games)
So this depends on Spurs’ finishing.
Over 3.5 Goals – Less Likely
Fulham’s scoring away is too low and Spurs aren’t a high-scoring home team.
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
🔵 TOTTENHAM
1️⃣Richarlison – 5 Goals, 2 Assists
Why he is the strongest pick:
- Spurs’ top scorer so far.
- Plays central and gets highest xG in the squad.
- Fulham concede 2.17 goals per away game → Richarlison benefits directly.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goalscorer – Strongest Pick
➡ Anytime Assist – Moderate
2️⃣ Brennan Johnson – 0 Goals
Why low probability:
- Zero goals in 12 games = confidence + finishing issues.
- Works more as creator and runner behind defence.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goal – Low
➡ Anytime Assist – Moderate (his movement could create for Richarlison)
3️⃣ Mohammed Kudus – 1 Goal, 4 Assists
Why he is dangerous:
- Best ball progressor in Spurs’ midfield.
- Leads Spurs in chance creation.
- Fulham vulnerable through channels → suits Kudus.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Assist – Strong Pick
➡ Anytime Goal – Medium
⚪ FULHAM
1️⃣ Harry Wilson – 2 Goals
- But Fulham average only 0.67 goals away, so scoring chances limited.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goal – Low/Medium
➡ Anytime Assist – Medium
2️⃣ Raul Jiménez – 2 Goals, 1 Assist
- Main striker = highest Fulham xG.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goal – Medium
➡ Anytime Assist – Low
3️⃣ Ryan Sessegnon – 2 Goals
- Scored late in previous Fulham matches vs Spurs.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goal – Low
4️⃣ Alex Iwobi – 1 Goal, 2 Assists
- Creates more than scores.
- Makes late box entries but Fulham’s away form drags his probability down.
Verdict:
➡ Anytime Goal – Low
➡ Anytime Assist – Medium
Anytime Goalscorer (Best → Least Likely)
- Richarlison – Strong
- Kudus – Medium
- Raul Jimenez – Medium
- Harry Wilson – Low/Medium
- Ryan Sessegnon – Low
- Alex Iwobi – Low
- Brennan Johnson – Very Low
Anytime Assist (Best → Least Likely)
- Kudus – Strong
- Richarlison – Medium
- Brennan Johnson – Medium
- Harry Wilson – Medium
- Alex Iwobi – Medium
- Raul Jimenez – Low
- Ryan Sessegnon – Low
BTTS
- Yes – 1.79
- No – 2.24
Team Clean Sheet Trends
Spurs
- 4 clean sheets in 12 games
- Only 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
→ Defence at home = unreliable.
Fulham
- 3 clean sheets in 12 games
- 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches
→ Concede in every away match.
Head-to-Head (last 5)
- Fulham 2–0 Spurs
- Spurs 1–1 Fulham
- Fulham 3–0 Spurs
- Spurs 2–0 Fulham
- Fulham 0–1 Spurs
Both teams scored in only 1 of the last 5 meetings.
But those games were from mixed seasons, not these squads.
Goal-Less Draw Probability
Last 12 league matches for each side:
- Spurs: 0 goalless draws
- Fulham: 0 goalless draws
→ 0/24 combined matches ended 0–0.
→ Probability of another 0-0 = extremely low.
BTTS Verdict
Reasons BTTS Yes is favoured:
- Spurs concede in 83% of home matches (5/6).
- Fulham concede in 100% of away matches (6/6).
- Spurs score home & away consistently.
- Fulham score in 4 of last 6 matches overall.
- Zero 0–0 draws this season for both sides.
Reasons BTTS No has some value:
- Only 1 of last 5 H2H saw both teams scoring.
- Fulham away goal record is poor (4 goals in 6 away).
Final BTTS Verdict
➡ BTTS Yes – Slightly Favoured
Because both teams leak goals, both score enough.
Probability Table
| Market + Probability | Reasoning |
|---|---|
| Spurs win – 42% | Home advantage + slightly stronger squad on paper, even though Spurs’ home form is poor. Bookmakers give them a small edge. |
| Draw – 24% | Mixed H2H and both teams inconsistent; draw is a very live outcome. |
| Fulham win – 34% | Fulham poor away but Spurs vulnerable at home — realistic upset chance. |
| Over 0.5 goals – 98% | Both teams score/allow regularly; goalless draw extremely unlikely. |
| Over 1.5 goals – 82% | Spurs and Fulham both produce chances and concede; 2+ goals expected in most scenarios. |
| Over 2.5 goals – 48% | Season numbers push both directions: H2H historically low, Fulham away defence leaky — this is coin-flip territory. |
| Over 3.5 goals – 25% | Only if game opens up or late subs radically change tempo. |
| BTTS – Yes – 68% | Spurs have only 1 home clean sheet in 6; Fulham have 0 away clean sheets → both likely to score. |
| BTTS – No – 32% | Possible if Spurs shut up shop after scoring early, but less likely given Fulham’s defensive frailty away. |
| Spurs clean sheet – 17% (home) | Only 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches — low chance. |
| Fulham clean sheet – 0% (away) | Fulham have no away clean sheets this season — extremely unlikely. |
| First team to score – Spurs – 58% | Home team usually starts on front foot; Spurs still create good chances even in poor form. |
| First team to score – Fulham – 26% | Mostly via counter or set-piece — doable but not the likeliest route. |
| Goal in first half – 62% | Both sides tend to produce early chances; game rarely stays dead early on. |
| Goal after 75’ – 45% | Game can open late due to fatigue/subs — moderate chance. |
| Correct score 2–1 Spurs – 18% | Realistic attacking result that fits both teams’ tendencies. |
| Correct score 1–0 Spurs – 16% | Classic low-scoring home win scenario if Spurs are efficient. |
| Correct score 2–0 Spurs – 14% | Spurs dominant day; low but feasible. |
| Correct score 1–1 – 15% | The typical balanced derby scoreline. |
| Correct score 0–1 Fulham – 12% | Away counter-win scenario — not improbable. |
| Correct score 0–2 Fulham – 10% | Full Fulham shock (less likely, but possible). |
| Other scores combined – 15% | All remaining less-likely outcomes. |
| Richarlison — G/A – 52% | Spurs’ top threat (5G, 2A); central to their attack vs a leaky Fulham away defence. |
| Mohammed Kudus — G/A – 45% | Creative/arrival threat; high assist potential and scores from late runs. |
| Brennan Johnson — G/A – 18% | Low finishing this season; more of a chance-creator than scorer right now. |
| Raúl Jiménez — G/A – 35% | Main Fulham striker; threat from set plays and hold-up; limited by Fulham’s poor away form. |
| Harry Wilson — G/A – 28% | Long-range/arrival threat; could pop up from distance or set-piece. |
| Ryan Sessegnon — G/A – 22% | Occasional late-game influence. |
| Alex Iwobi — G/A – 30% | Creative engine for Fulham; assist chance higher than goal. |
My Picks
| Market |
|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
This London derby looks set up for goals. Spurs’ shaky home defence (only 1 clean sheet in 6 home games) combined with Fulham’s poor away defending (0 cleansheets away, 13 conceded) strongly increases the likelihood of both sides finding the net. Fulham also create enough chances on the counter and set pieces to trouble Spurs, while Spurs themselves average over 1 goal per home match. With the matchup trend pointing toward an open, stretched game rather than a cagey one, Over 1.5 Goals appears highly reliable, and BTTS – Yes fits both team profiles perfectly. These two selections align strongly with the statistical patterns from goals, H2H, and defensive records.
