Wolves return to Molineux after a tough 2–0 defeat at the Etihad, with Rob Edwards’ side looking to bounce back in front of their home supporters. They face an in-form Bournemouth team who come into this fixture full of confidence after a thrilling 3–2 victory over Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium. The last meeting between these two sides also went in Bournemouth’s favour, with an early goal from Marcus Tavernier sealing a 1–0 win, a match that shifted further after Toti Gomes was sent off early in the second half. With Wolves desperate to regain momentum and Bournemouth pushing for consistency, this clash promises intensity, physical battles, and another tightly contested encounter where both sides will believe they can take all three points.
Odds Analysis
The bookmakers slightly favour Bournemouth at 2.28, while Wolves are priced at 3.30 and the draw at 3.75. This shows Bournemouth are expected to have the edge, mainly due to their stronger season overall, but Wolves’ recent resilience makes this far from an easy away win.
Recent Premier League Form
Wolves (Last 5 Matches):
- Lost 2–0 vs Manchester City (Away)
- Drew 0–0 vs Newcastle (Home)
- Drew 1–1 vs Everton (Away)
- Won 3–0 vs West Ham (Home)
- Drew 1–1 vs Manchester United (Away)
👉 Wolves may be struggling in the table, but they’ve started to grind out results. Three draws against tough sides like Newcastle, Everton and Manchester United show they are becoming harder to beat, especially defensively.
Bournemouth (Last 5 Matches):
- Won 3–2 vs Liverpool (Home)
- Drew 1–1 vs Brighton (Away)
- Won 3–2 vs Tottenham (Home)
- Lost 2–3 vs Arsenal (Home)
- Drew 2–2 vs Chelsea (Away)
👉 Bournemouth are in much better attacking form, scoring goals against top teams like Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea. Even in losses, they remain competitive, which explains why they are favourites here.
Season Performance
Wolves (23 matches):
- Wins: 1
- Draws: 5
- Losses: 17
Wolves at Home:
- Played: 11
- Wins: 1
- Draws: 2
- Losses: 8
👉 Wolves’ home record is very poor, with just one win all season, which is a big concern coming into this fixture.
Bournemouth (23 matches):
- Wins: 7
- Draws: 9
- Losses: 7
Bournemouth Away:
- Played: 11
- Wins: 1
- Draws: 5
- Losses: 5
👉 Bournemouth haven’t been great away from home either, with only one away win, but they’ve managed to avoid defeat in many matches through draws.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Bournemouth 1–0 Wolves
- Bournemouth 0–1 Wolves
- Wolves 2–4 Bournemouth
- Wolves 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Wolves
👉 These meetings have been very close and competitive, with no clear dominance from either side, suggesting another tight contest.
Overall Hint from the Odds & Stats
- Bournemouth look stronger going forward and are in better overall form
- Wolves are improving defensively but still struggle badly at home
- Away struggles for Bournemouth make a comfortable win unlikely
👉 This points towards Bournemouth having the edge, but a draw or narrow result is very possible.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Wolves – Goal Output This Season
Overall (23 matches)
- Goals scored: 15 → 0.65 goals per match
- Goals conceded: 43 → 1.87 goals per match
👉 Wolves struggle badly in attack and leak nearly 2 goals every game on average.
At Home (11 matches)
- Goals scored: 10 → 0.91 goals per match
- Goals conceded: 23 → 2.09 goals per match
👉 Even at Molineux, Wolves concede over 2 goals per game a big sign for high-scoring potential.
Bournemouth – Goal Output This Season
Overall (23 matches)
- Goals scored: 38 → 1.65 goals per match
- Goals conceded: 43 → 1.87 goals per match
👉 Bournemouth are strong going forward but defensively vulnerable almost identical to Wolves in goals conceded.
Away From Home (11 matches)
- Goals scored: 19 → 1.73 goals per match
- Goals conceded: 30 → 2.73 goals per match
👉 Bournemouth away games are very open scoring well but conceding nearly 3 goals per match.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 Premier League Meetings)
- Bournemouth 1–0 Wolves
- Bournemouth 0–1 Wolves
- Wolves 2–4 Bournemouth
- Wolves 0–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Wolves
Total goals in last 5 H2H = 13 goals
👉 Average = 2.6 goals per match
What This Tells Us About Over/Under Goals
• Wolves concede heavily both home and overall
• Bournemouth away matches are very high scoring
• Bournemouth attack is much stronger than Wolves
• H2H average sits above 2.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals – looks very strong
Over 2.5 goals – good possibility
Over 3.5 goals – depends on how open Wolves play
If Wolves try to sit deep → likely 1–2 goals
If Wolves chase points → could easily go 3+ goals
Quick Goal Market Summary
- Wolves average conceded: ~2 goals per game
- Bournemouth away conceded: almost 3 goals per game
- Combined attacking trend points to goals
This fixture leans clearly towards goals rather than a low-scoring game
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals/Assists) | G/A Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Eli Junior Kroupi (7G) | 72% |
| Evanilson (5G) | 65% |
| Hwang Hee-chan (2G, 1A) | 48% |
| Matteus Mané (2G, 1A) | 44% |
BTTS Odds
Odds
- BTTS Yes → 1.65
- BTTS No → 2.46
Wolves – This Season
- Played: 23 matches
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 12 matches
Home record
- Played: 11 matches
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 5 matches
👉 Wolves struggle badly in attack and rarely keep clean sheets.
Bournemouth – This Season
- Played: 23 matches
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 4 matches
Away record
- Played: 11 matches
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 1 match
👉 Bournemouth usually score away but don’t defend well on the road.
Head to Head (Last 5 Premier League Games)
- Bournemouth 1–0 Wolves → BTTS ❌
- Wolves 1–0 Bournemouth → BTTS ❌
- Wolves 2–4 Bournemouth → BTTS ✅
- Wolves 0–1 Bournemouth → BTTS ❌
- Bournemouth 1–2 Wolves → BTTS ✅
👉 BTTS Yes in 2 out of last 5
👉 BTTS No in 3 out of last 5
- Wolves fail to score in more than 50% of their matches
- Bournemouth almost always score away
- Head-to-head slightly leans towards BTTS No
📌 Even though odds favour BTTS Yes, the stats slightly favour BTTS No
This is a risky market not a confident one.
Key Facts
• In the last 14 head-to-head matches (all competitions), only one game ended 0–0, which was back in September 2022.
• In those same 14 meetings, there have been 7 matches with a red card shown.
👉 This fixture is often physical and heated, with discipline playing a big role.
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 38% |
| BTTS – Yes | 67% |
| BTTS – No | 33% |
| Bournemouth Win | 45% |
| Draw | 32% |
| Wolves Win | 23% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi Goal/Assist | 72% |
| Evanilson Goal/Assist | 65% |
| Hwang Hee-Chan Goal/Assist | 48% |
| Matheus Mané Goal/Assist | 44% |
| Red Card in Match | 50% |
My Picks
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Total Goals | Over 1.5 Goals |
Final Verdict
Wolves vs Bournemouth looks set to be an open and eventful contest, with goals once again expected between the two sides. Wolves continue to struggle defensively, conceding heavily both home and away, while Bournemouth have been far more productive in attack this season and are coming into the match with good momentum after recent positive results. Historical meetings also strongly favour goals, with only one goalless draw in the last 14 head-to-head clashes and several matches featuring red cards and late drama. Considering Wolves’ poor clean sheet record and Bournemouth’s attacking consistency, it’s hard to see this game staying quiet. The safest angle remains backing over 1.5 goals, with a strong chance of an entertaining fixture at Molineux.
