Fulham and Sunderland meet again, this time at Craven Cottage, after their memorable FA Cup clash in 2023 at the Stadium of Light.
The situation today is completely different — Sunderland come as one of the most in-form sides in the league, currently sitting inside the top four, while Fulham are drifting dangerously close to the relegation zone.
Fulham’s recent form has been worrying: just one win in their last five Premier League games, struggling both in attack and defence. Their performances have lacked consistency, and their midfield has been overrun too easily.
Sunderland, on the other hand, have been fearless. Their last fixture — a 2-2 draw against Arsenal at home — showed how disciplined and high-energy this team can be. They pressed aggressively, created big chances, and almost took all three points from a title contender.
With momentum entirely on Sunderland’s side, the question is simple:
Can Fulham use home advantage to break their poor run, or will Sunderland walk into the cottage and steal all three points?
Odds Analysis
The odds lean toward Fulham, mainly because of home advantage — NOT because they are the stronger side right now. Anyone relying purely on form and table position will immediately see the mismatch:
Fulham sit 15th, only 1 point above the relegation zone
Sunderland are 4th, playing far better football and showing consistency
So while bookmakers are pricing Fulham as favourites, the actual performance metrics don’t support a strong Fulham edge.
If we examine the historical trend:
Last 14 Head-to-Head Matches
- Fulham wins: 5
- Sunderland wins: 4
- Draws: 5
This breakdown clearly shows that neither team has dominated this fixture historically, and the odds being pushed heavily towards Fulham feel misleading.
Conclusion from Odds
- The market slightly overrates Fulham due to home advantage
- A draw or even an away win is highly possible
- Sunderland’s current momentum makes the long odds tempting
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fulham Win | 2.18 |
| Sunderland Win | 4.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 |
Over/Under Goals
Sunderland may be sitting in the top four, but they’ve scored just 14 goals, the lowest among all top-four teams this season, while maintaining a disciplined defense by conceding only 10. Fulham, on the other hand, are far less steady: 12 goals scored and 16 conceded, showing their matches tend to be more open and unpredictable.
Looking at the recent head-to-head history, the last two meetings came in the FA Cup in January 2023, ending 1-1 at Craven Cottage and 2-3 to Fulham at the Stadium of Light. Both of those games produced goals, and neither ended under 1.5 goals.
Given the combination of Sunderland’s defensive discipline and Fulham’s unstable back line, this market becomes tricky—goal flow heavily depends on how Sunderland approach the away fixture. Over 1.5 goals is reasonable, but Over 2.5 goals remains uncertain due to Sunderland’s low-scoring trend.
| Probability (%) | Why |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% | Very unlikely to be 0–0 given both teams’ scoring records and recent H2H. |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | Safest goals market — both sides regularly produce at least two goals between them. |
| Over 2.5 Goal | 48% | Toss-up — Sunderland score less often (14) so this depends on Fulham finding form or an open game. |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 22% | Possible but low — would need a high-tempo, open match or defensive collapse. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | Slight edge to under 2.5 because Sunderland’s matches are often low-scoring; explains the near-50/50 on 2.5 line. |
Anytime Goalscorer
| Player | G/A Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Alex Iwobi | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez | 57% |
| Wilson Isidor | 53% |
| Granit Xhaka | 38% |
BTTS
BTTS Yes – 1.99
BTTS No – 2.00
This market is genuinely unpredictable. The odds are almost identical, which already suggests the bookmakers have no strong lean either way. These two clubs are meeting in the Premier League for the first time since 2014, and although they’ve crossed paths in the Championship and FA Cup since then, the scoring pattern between them remains mixed.
Across their last 14 head-to-head meetings:
- 3 matches ended 0–0
- 3 matches had only one side scoring
- The rest saw goals from both sides, but not consistently enough to rely on.
Current-season form also adds to the uncertainty:
- Fulham have 2 home clean sheets (vs Leeds, vs Wolves).
- Sunderland have 1 away clean sheet (vs Nottingham Forest).
Given how inconsistent both attacks can be and how both sides occasionally shut up shop, this market offers no clear direction. Skipping BTTS might be the safest choice here.
Crazy Historical Stats
1960s — early post-war meetings & cup ties
- Fulham 1–0 Sunderland (27 Feb 1965) — a tight league clash at Craven Cottage; low-scoring, typical of the era’s defensive style. World Football
- Fulham 3–0 Sunderland (19 Mar 1966) — Fulham posted a comfortable home win in the First Division era. footballdatabase.eu
- Sunderland 1–0 Fulham (FA Cup tie, Jan 1969) — an example of cup meetings between the clubs in the decade. Transfermarkt
1970s — regular Championship/Second Division clashes
- Sunderland 1–0 Fulham / 16 Mar 1974 — Sunderland took the points in a league meeting (championship era). This period saw frequent second-tier clashes. footballdatabase.eu+1
- Series note: The 1970s had multiple one-goal, tight results between the sides — useful to cite when saying this fixture historically produced close matches. BeSoccer
1980s — battles in lower divisions, cup shocks
- Fulham 1–2 Sunderland (2 Nov 1985) — an away win for Sunderland in the League (Division Two) era. footballdatabase.eu
- Late-80s cup meetings: Sunderland and Fulham cropped up in League Cup ties (e.g., Sept/Oct 1989 cup fixtures), showing the fixture carried across competitions. 11v11+1
1990s — mixed results, occasional cup ties
- 22 Aug 2001 & 19 Jan 2002 references — (slightly after the 90s but useful context) show the clubs’ meetings moved into Premier League/First Division cycles in later years; during the 1990s the pair sometimes met in lower tiers and cups with inconsistent results. Use this to show long history across divisions. 11v11+1
Probability Table
| Market | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals | 96% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 22% |
| BTTS — Yes | 52% |
| BTTS — No | 48% |
| Fulham to Win | 43% |
| Match Draw | 28% |
| Sunderland to Win | 29% |
My Picks
| Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | Both teams capable of scoring. |
| BTTS | Both vulnerable defensively. |
Final Verdict
This is a far more balanced matchup than the odds suggest. Fulham may be slight favourites on paper, but their inconsistency and defensive gaps make them vulnerable against a disciplined and energetic Sunderland side sitting comfortably in the top four. Both teams have shown enough in recent head-to-heads and current form to suggest goals will come from either end, especially with neither defence looking fully reliable. With that in mind, the safest angles lean toward Over 1.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score, as this fixture tends to open up once the first goal lands. A tight, competitive match is expected, with Sunderland fully capable of matching Fulham blow for blow.
