The early kickoff at the Gtech Community Stadium brings two sides under pressure, but for different reasons. Brentford are drifting mid-table after inconsistent results, while Burnley continue to struggle and sit deep in the relegation zone.
Recent Form
Brentford: Lost 2–1 away at Brighton.
Burnley: Lost 0–2 at home to Chelsea.
Previous Meetings
At the Gtech (last season): Brentford 3–0 Burnley.
Burnley had a late meltdown after Connor Roberts received a second yellow in the 78th minute for fouling Flekken.
Reverse fixture at Turf Moor: Burnley 2–1 Brentford.
Current Table Positions
- Brentford: 12th – safe, but nowhere near their usual top-half consistency.
- Burnley: 19th – stuck in relegation zone, lack goals, and leak too many.
Tactical Angle
- Brentford at home normally defends well + direct transitions well.
- Burnley under Scott Parker want to play football but keep getting punished for naïve defending.
- Gtech is a tough place to win, and Burnley’s away record isn’t exactly inspiring.
Key Question
Can Brentford repeat last season’s dominant home win or will Burnley stun everyone and steal all three points?
Odds Analysis – Brentford vs Burnley
Brentford: 1.51
Burnley: 7.40
Draw: 4.70
The market strongly leans toward Brentford, and honestly, it’s justified. Their home numbers vs Burnley’s away disasters make these odds pretty fair.
Brentford Home Record (This Season)
- 6 matches
- 4 wins
- 1 draw
- 1 loss
Very solid at the Gtech — they rarely drop points at home.
Burnley Away Record (This Season)
- 6 matches
- 5 losses
- 1 win vs Wolves (3–2)
Conceding too many, poor game management, and leaking late goals.
Last 5 Head-to-Head Results
- Burnley 2–1 Brentford
- Brentford 3–0 Burnley
- Brentford 2–0 Burnley
- Burnley 3–1 Brentford
- Brentford 1–3 Burnley
Very mixed historically — but remember, most of these were from completely different Brentford/Burnley squads and managers.
Over/Under Goals Analysis – Brentford vs Burnley
Team Goal Stats (This Season)
Brentford
- 18 scored
- 19 conceded
- Average total goals in their matches: ~3.08 per game
Burnley
- 14 scored
- 24 conceded
- Average total goals in their matches: ~3.36 per game
➡️ Both teams average above 3 goals per match this season.
Last 5 Head-to-Heads
- 16 total goals scored
- 3.2 goals per match
Historically and currently, this fixture trends towards 2+ goals.
| Market + Probability | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Goals — 94% | High |
| Over 1.5 Goals — 82% | High |
| Over 2.5 Goals — 64% | Medium |
| Over 3.5 Goals — 38% | Low |
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player | Goal | Assist | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Thiago | 9 goals | 58% |
| Kevin Schade | 3 goals | 32% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 4 goals | 36% |
| Zien Flemming | 3 goals | 30% |
| Quilindschy Hartman | 4 assists | 34% |
BTTS Odds
- Yes: 2.04
- No: 1.91
The odds slightly lean towards BTTS-No, but the fixture history and defensive records tell a more mixed story.
Clean Sheet Records This Season
Brentford
12 matches → 2 clean sheets
- Home: 1–0 vs Aston Villa
- Away: 0–2 vs West Ham
- Clean Sheet Rate: 17%
Burnley
- 12 matches → 2 clean sheets (both at home)
- 2–0 vs Sunderland
- 2–0 vs Leeds
- Away Clean Sheets: 0
- Away defensive record = very poor
Last 5 Head-to-Head Scores
- Burnley 2–1 Brentford
- Brentford 3–0 Burnley
- Brentford 2–0 Burnley
- Burnley 3–1 Brentford
- Brentford 1–3 Burnley
BTTS Outcome in these 5 matches
- BTTS Yes: 3 times
- (2–1, 3–1, 1–3)
- BTTS No: 2 times
- (3–0, 2–0)
BTTS Yes rate → 60%
My Picks
| Pick | Reasoning |
|---|---|
| Brentford Win or Draw | Strong home form vs Burnley’s poor away record |
| Over 1.5 Goals | Last 5 H2H average 3.2 goals; both teams leak goals |
Final Verdict
Brentford enter this clash with a clear advantage — stronger home form, better structure, and far more consistency than Burnley have shown all season. Burnley’s away record is worrying, with five losses in six and a defence that concedes far too easily, while Brentford average good goal output at the Gtech. The recent head-to-head history also leans towards goals, with an average of 3.2 per match in the last five meetings. Burnley may show flashes going forward, but sustaining pressure away from home has been their biggest weakness. Considering form, momentum, and overall stability, Brentford avoiding defeat looks highly likely, and the match should comfortably produce at least two goals.
