Arsenal head into this clash sitting comfortably at the top of the Premier League table, six points clear of second-placed Manchester City. The Gunners have been in ruthless form and showed their quality once again in their last league outing with a dominant 4–0 away victory over Leeds United at Elland Road.
Mikel Arteta’s side also picked up a confidence boosting 1–0 win over Chelsea in the midweek EFL Cup semi-final at the Emirates Stadium, underlining their strong momentum across competitions.
With consistency, attacking firepower, and home advantage on their side, Arsenal will be targeting another three points to tighten their grip on the title race.
Sunderland arrive in excellent spirits after a convincing 3–0 home victory over Burnley, continuing their impressive home form this season. The Black Cats have been one of the more resilient sides in the league and remain the only team yet to be beaten at home so far in the campaign.
The reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light ended in a dramatic 2–2 draw, where Arsenal looked set for victory before a stoppage-time equaliser from Brian Brobbey in the 90+4 minute rescued a point for Sunderland.
That result showed Sunderland’s fighting spirit and ability to frustrate even the strongest opponents.
A late goal denied Arsenal all three points, highlighting how difficult Sunderland can be to break down when fully focused.
Match Context
• Arsenal are league leaders in top form and scoring freely
• Sunderland come in after a strong home win and with confidence from the reverse fixture
• Arsenal have extra momentum from midweek cup success
Can Arsenal use their home advantage and superior quality to secure all three points this time, or will Sunderland once again show their resilience and frustrate the league leaders at the Emirates Stadium?
Odds Analysis
Arsenal – 1.23
Draw – 7.40
Sunderland – 17.50
The bookmakers have made Arsenal overwhelming favourites, which reflects the massive gap in quality, home form, and season consistency between the two sides. Sunderland are priced as huge underdogs, while the draw sits at long odds showing how strongly the market expects an Arsenal victory.
Recent Form – Arsenal
- Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–3 Manchester United
- Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool
- Bournemouth 2–3 Arsenal
Arsenal have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals in the process. Two clean sheets also show improvement defensively.
Strong attack, solid defence, but with a touch of inconsistency recently.
Recent Form – Sunderland
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland
- Tottenham 1–1 Sunderland
Sunderland come in with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring and conceding 7 goals each. Their performances have been mixed impressive at times, but poor in others.
Very inconsistent form.
Season Performance
Arsenal
- Played: 24
- Won: 16
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 3
Arsenal have been one of the most consistent sides in the league, losing just three matches all season.
Genuine title contenders.
Arsenal – Home Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 9
- Drawn: 2
- Lost: 1
At the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal are extremely strong, winning most home games and rarely dropping points.
Home advantage heavily favours Arsenal.
Sunderland
- Played: 24
- Won: 9
- Drawn: 9
- Lost: 6
Sunderland have been competitive overall but have drawn many matches, which has slowed their progress.
Steady but not dominant.
Sunderland – Away Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 2
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 6
Away from home, Sunderland struggle badly, winning just two matches and losing half of their away fixtures.
Weak road form.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal (Nov 2025)
- Arsenal 2–0 Sunderland (May 2017)
- Sunderland 1–4 Arsenal (Oct 2016)
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal (Apr 2016)
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland (Dec 2015)
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning three and drawing two.
History strongly favours Arsenal.
Overall Odds Verdict
Arsenal:
Strong season form
Excellent home record
Dominant H2H history
Sunderland:
Inconsistent form
Poor away performances
Everything points clearly toward an Arsenal-controlled match.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Arsenal – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 46
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored: ~1.9
- xG conceded: ~0.8
Arsenal are one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the league while also being very solid defensively.
Most of their matches support Over 2.5 goals, mainly because Arsenal often score two or three goals by themselves.
Arsenal – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 28
- Conceded: 8
- xG scored: ~2.3
- xG conceded: ~0.7
At the Emirates, Arsenal are dominant:
• Over 2 goals scored per game
• Very few chances conceded
Home fixtures strongly favour high scoring + possible clean sheets.
Sunderland – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 27
- Conceded: 26
- xG scored: ~1.12
- xG conceded: ~1.08
Sunderland’s season numbers are quite balanced, with most games being close contests.
Overall goal totals usually stay moderate.
Sunderland – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 6
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored: ~0.7
- xG conceded: ~1.4
Away from home, Sunderland struggle badly in attack and allow many chances.
Their away matches usually favour the opposition scoring freely.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 PL Matches)
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–4 Arsenal
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland
Pattern:
- Arsenal scored 10 goals
- Sunderland scored 5 goals
- Most matches had 2+ goals
Arsenal regularly dominate and create multiple scoring chances.
Over/Under Final Verdict
Key factors:
- Arsenal’s elite attack (especially at home)
- Sunderland’s weak away defence
- H2H history favouring Arsenal goals
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres (6G / 0A) | 40% |
| Leandro Trossard (5G / 4A) | 33% |
| Declan Rice (4G / 3A) | 27% |
| Brian Brobbey (5G / 1A) | 42% |
| Wilson Isidor (4G / 0A) | 33% |
| Chemsdine Talbi (3G / 1A) | 25% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS – Yes: 2.66
BTTS – No: 1.58
The odds already lean strongly toward BTTS No, and when you break down the numbers, the market view makes complete sense.
Arsenal – BTTS Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 12
- Failed to score: 3
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches, which is an outstanding defensive record. They also rarely fail to score.
This combination heavily reduces the chance of BTTS.
Arsenal – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 5
- Failed to score: 1
At the Emirates, Arsenal are extremely hard to break down and almost always find the net themselves.
Most home wins come with opponents failing to score.
Sunderland – BTTS Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 8
- Failed to score: 8
Sunderland can be solid defensively at times, but their attack is inconsistent, failing to score in a third of their matches.
Very unpredictable going forward.
Sunderland – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 6
Away from home, Sunderland are poor both defensively and offensively.
They often concede and frequently fail to score themselves.
Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 PL Matches)
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–4 Arsenal
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland
Pattern:
- BTTS happened in only 2 of the last 5
- Arsenal kept Sunderland scoreless in 3 matches
Arsenal usually dominate and shut Sunderland out.
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | 78% |
| Draw | 15% |
| Sunderland Win | 7% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 72% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 28% |
| BTTS – Yes | 32% |
| BTTS – No | 68% |
| Arsenal Clean Sheet | 55% |
| Sunderland Clean Sheet | 10% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Arsenal Win or Draw (Double Chance) |
Final Verdict
All signs point toward Arsenal having too much quality for Sunderland at the Emirates this time around. While Sunderland have already shown they can frustrate the Gunners and fight until the final whistle, the gap in consistency, attacking power, and home dominance heavily favours Arsenal. With momentum from both league and cup action, Arsenal should control the tempo and create plenty of chances, making it difficult for Sunderland to repeat their late-heroics from the reverse fixture. Expect a strong Arsenal performance, likely with multiple goals, as they look to tighten their grip on the title race.
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