Burnley head into this crucial clash sitting 19th in the Premier League table with 15 points, deep in the relegation zone and in desperate need of a turnaround. Their season has been extremely tough, and confidence took another hit in their last outing with a heavy 3–0 defeat away to Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.
Now back at Turf Moor, the Clarets will be hoping home support can inspire a much-needed response as they continue their fight for survival.
West Ham United arrive in a similarly difficult position, currently 18th in the table with 20 points, also inside the relegation zone and under huge pressure to start picking up wins.
Their last Premier League match was a dramatic but painful 3–2 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, where the Hammers had raced into a two-goal lead before conceding three times to suffer a frustrating comeback loss.
Despite the defeat, West Ham showed attacking promise something they will look to build on at Turf Moor.
The most recent meeting between these two sides at the London Stadium ended in an entertaining 3–2 victory for West Ham.
Burnley actually took the lead in the 35th minute through Zian Flemming, before Callum Wilson equalised just before halftime. West Ham then added two more goals in the second half to complete the comeback and secure all three points.
Match Context
• Burnley sit 19th and are struggling badly for form
• West Ham are 18th and also fighting to escape the relegation zone
• Both teams desperately need points to boost survival hopes
Can Burnley use home advantage at Turf Moor to spark a revival, or will West Ham once again find a way to claim crucial points in this relegation battle?
Odds Analysis
Burnley – 3.60
Draw – 3.55
West Ham – 2.24
Bookmakers have installed West Ham as slight favourites, though not by a huge margin — reflecting both teams’ struggles this season. Burnley’s home advantage keeps the odds competitive, while West Ham’s stronger H2H record gives them the edge.
Recent Form – Burnley
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 2–2 Manchester United
- Brighton 2–0 Burnley
Burnley are without a win in their last five matches, recording three draws and two defeats.
They have conceded 10 goals in this period and failed to score twice, highlighting:
👉 Defensive fragility
👉 Struggles in attack
Overall, their recent form remains very weak.
Recent Form – West Ham
- Chelsea 3–2 West Ham
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland
- Tottenham 1–2 West Ham
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest
- Wolves 3–0 West Ham
West Ham have won two matches and lost three in their last five.
They’ve scored 6 goals but conceded 9, showing:
👉 Some attacking threat
👉 Very shaky defence
Overall, their form is inconsistent and unstable.
Season Performance
Burnley
- Played: 24
- Won: 3
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 15
Burnley have managed only three wins all season, with 15 defeats, firmly placing them in relegation-zone form.
👉 One of the weakest sides in the league.
Burnley – Home Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 2
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 6
Even at Turf Moor, Burnley struggle badly, losing half of their home matches and rarely dominating games.
👉 Home advantage hasn’t helped much.
West Ham
- Played: 24
- Won: 5
- Drawn: 5
- Lost: 14
West Ham’s campaign has been poor, with just five wins and heavy inconsistency.
👉 Below league-average performance.
West Ham – Away Record
- Played: 12
- Won: 2
- Drawn: 4
- Lost: 6
Away from home, West Ham have just two wins, with frequent draws and defeats.
👉 Very unreliable on the road.
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley (Nov 2025)
- West Ham 2–2 Burnley (Mar 2024)
- Burnley 1–2 West Ham (Nov 2023)
- West Ham 1–1 Burnley (Apr 2022)
- Burnley 0–0 West Ham (Dec 2021)
West Ham are unbeaten in the last five meetings:
✔ 2 wins
✔ 3 draws
👉 History slightly favours West Ham.
Overall Odds Verdict
Burnley:
❌ Very poor season form
❌ Weak home performances
West Ham:
✔ Slightly better quality
✔ Strong H2H record
This looks like a close relegation battle but West Ham hold the edge due to history and marginally better results.
Over/Under Goals Analysis
Burnley – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 25
- Conceded: 47
- xG scored: ~1.04
- xG conceded: ~1.96
Burnley’s numbers clearly show a very weak defence, conceding almost 2 goals per game on average.
Their xG suggests they create fewer quality chances than their opponents while constantly facing pressure.
👉 Most Burnley matches lean toward goals — mainly from the opposition.
Burnley – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 12
- Conceded: 17
- xG scored: ~1.1
- xG conceded: ~1.5
At Turf Moor, Burnley score about 1 goal per game but still concede regularly.
👉 Home matches often see goals from both sides.
West Ham – Goals Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Scored: 29
- Conceded: 48
- xG scored: ~1.3
- xG conceded: ~1.9
West Ham also struggle defensively, conceding 2 goals per game on average.
They score fairly consistently but leak goals heavily.
👉 Their matches are usually open and goal-friendly.
West Ham – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Scored: 13
- Conceded: 22
- xG scored: ~1.2
- xG conceded: ~1.7
Away from home, West Ham continue to concede a lot while still finding the net occasionally.
👉 Away fixtures strongly support over-goals markets.
Head-to-Head Goals Trend (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley
- West Ham 2–2 Burnley
- Burnley 1–2 West Ham
- West Ham 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 0–0 West Ham
Pattern:
- Most games had goals from both sides
- Average goals close to 2.4 per match
- Rarely very low-scoring
📌 Over/Under Final Verdict
- Burnley concede heavily (home and away)
- West Ham’s defence is equally poor
- H2H history supports goals
Anytime Goalscorer or Assist
| Player (Goals / Assists) | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony (5G / 1A) | 38% |
| Zian Flemming (5G) | 38% |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (3G) | 24% |
| Jarrod Bowen (8G / 1A) | 50% |
| Callum Wilson (5G / 1A) | 31% |
| Crysencio Summerville (3G / 1A) | 19% |
BTTS Odds
BTTS – Yes: 1.80
BTTS – No: 2.20
The odds lean slightly toward BTTS Yes, and when we break down the numbers and recent trends, that direction makes sense.
Burnley – BTTS Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 8
Burnley rarely keep clean sheets, which means they almost always concede.
At the same time, they do manage to score in most matches, even if inconsistently.
👉 This creates mixed but BTTS-friendly conditions.
Burnley – Home Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 5
At Turf Moor, Burnley usually concede and sometimes struggle in attack — but they still find the net in over half their home games.
👉 Home fixtures often allow both teams chances.
West Ham – BTTS Trend
Overall
- Played: 24
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 8
West Ham’s defence is extremely weak, with just one clean sheet all season.
They also fail to score fairly often, but generally contribute goals.
👉 Matches are usually open and chaotic.
West Ham – Away Matches
- Played: 12
- Clean sheets: 1
- Failed to score: 4
Away from home, West Ham concede frequently and still score in most games.
👉 Away fixtures strongly support BTTS Yes.
Head-to-Head BTTS Trend (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- West Ham 3–2 Burnley
- West Ham 2–2 Burnley
- Burnley 1–2 West Ham
- West Ham 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 0–0 West Ham
Pattern:
- West Ham scored in 4 of 5
- Burnley scored in 4 of 5
- Most matches were open and competitive
👉 Strong H2H support for BTTS.
BTTS Final Verdict
Key points:
✔ Burnley concede regularly
✔ West Ham almost never keep clean sheets
✔ H2H history strongly favours goals from both sides
✅ Best Pick: BTTS – YES
Probability Table
| Market / Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| West Ham Win | 45% |
| Draw | 30% |
| Burnley Win | 25% |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 35% |
| BTTS – Yes | 70% |
| BTTS – No | 30% |
| Burnley Clean Sheet | 12% |
| West Ham Clean Sheet | 8% |
My Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
📌 Final Verdict
This relegation battle feels set to be tight, tense, and full of pressure, but West Ham United appear to hold a slight edge heading into the clash. Burnley’s struggles in both defence and attack make it difficult to trust them, even with home advantage at Turf Moor, while West Ham at least showed attacking quality in their recent defeat to Chelsea and have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings. That said, with both sides desperate for points and neither defence looking reliable, a scrappy and goal-filled contest looks likely. Overall, West Ham seem better placed to take something from the game — but Burnley should make it a tough fight rather than an easy win.
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