Burnley welcome Bournemouth to Turf Moor for Premier League Matchweek 30 following a difficult run of results. The Clarets suffered a 2–0 defeat away to Everton in their previous match, where James Tarkowski opened the scoring in the first half before Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall added a second after the break to secure the win. In the relegation zone in 19th place, with the pressure increasing as the season approaches its final stretch. Their performances have often been competitive, but the lack of consistent results has made survival increasingly difficult.
Bournemouth arrive after a goalless draw against Brentford at the Vitality Stadium. While the Cherries were unable to find a breakthrough in that match, they remain in a comfortable mid-table position in ninth place and continue to show stability throughout the campaign. Bournemouth have proven difficult to break down in several matches this season and have shown the ability to collect points both home and away.
The most recent meeting between these sides ended in a dramatic 1–1 draw at the Vitality Stadium. Antoine Semenyo gave Bournemouth the lead before Burnley substitute Armando Broja equalised in the 90th minute to rescue a point. Historically, this fixture has rarely lacked goals, adding further intrigue to the upcoming clash at Turf Moor.
Will Burnley sack Scott Parker?
With only eight matches remaining in the season, replacing Scott Parker at this stage would likely bring more disruption than benefit. Despite Burnley’s struggles, Parker played a crucial role in guiding the club back to the Premier League after former manager Vincent Kompany departed for Bayern Munich. The team’s current position is concerning, but making a managerial change so late in the campaign is unlikely to dramatically alter their survival prospects. Stability may therefore be the more realistic approach for the remainder of the season.
Match Facts
• Burnley – 19th place – 19 points
• AFC Bournemouth – 9th place – 40 points
• Head-to-Head (15 matches in all competitions):
• Burnley wins: 7
• Bournemouth wins: 5
• Draws: 3
• No previous meeting between these sides has ended goalless
• Last H2H at Turf Moor: Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth
• Venue – Turf Moor
Referee – Peter Bankes
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 4.20 | 16/5 | +320 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 |
| Bournemouth | 1.91 | 10/11 | -110 |
Burnley (Last 5 PL Games)
- Everton 2–0 Burnley
- Burnley 3–4 Brentford
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 West Ham
Bournemouth (Last 5 PL Games)
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford
- Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland
- West Ham 0–0 Bournemouth
- Everton 1–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa
Burnley this season statistics
- 4 Wins – 7 Draws – 18 Losses
Home Record
- 2 Wins – 4 Draws – 8 Losses
Bournemouth this season statistics
- 9 Wins – 13 Draws – 7 Losses
Away Record
- 3 Wins – 6 Draws – 5 Losses
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Bournemouth 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–1 Burnley
- Burnley 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–1 Burnley
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Burnley goals this season
- 32 goals scored
- 58 goals conceded
- xG created per match ≈ 1.07
- xG conceded per match ≈ 1.86
Burnley home goals this season
- 15 goals scored
- 23 goals conceded
- xG created ≈ 1.16
- xG conceded ≈ 1.78
Bournemouth goals this season
- 44 goals scored
- 46 goals conceded
- xG created per match ≈ 1.56
- xG conceded per match ≈ 1.52
Bournemouth away goals this season
- 23 goals scored
- 31 goals conceded
- xG created ≈ 1.52
- xG conceded ≈ 1.7
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Bournemouth 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–1 Burnley
- Burnley 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–1 Burnley
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Burnley | Bournemouth |
|---|---|
| Flemming (Injured) | Cook (Injured) |
| Edwards (Injured) | Soler (Injured) |
| Broja (Injured) | Kluivert (Injured) |
| Tuanzebe (Injured) | Doak (Injured) |
| Trésor (Injured) | Akinmboni (Injured) |
| Cullen (Injured) | |
| Beyer (Injured) | |
| Roberts (Injured) | |
| Amdouni (injured) |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Predictions
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 | 8/11 | -139 |
| No | 2.32 | 11/8 | +132 |
Burnley scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 3 in 29
- Failed to score: 10 in 29
Burnley at Turf Moor
- Clean sheets: 2 in 14
- Failed to score: 6 in 14
Bournemouth scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 8 in 29
- Failed to score: 6 in 29
Bournemouth away
- Clean sheets: 2 in 14
- Failed to score: 2 in 14
Head-to-Head (Last 5 EPL)
- Bournemouth 1–1 Burnley
- Burnley 0–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–1 Burnley
- Burnley 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–1 Burnley
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 23% |
| Draw | 26% |
| Bournemouth Win | 51% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 38% |
| BTTS – Yes | 60% |
| BTTS – No | 40% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley 1–2 Bournemouth | 19% |
| Burnley 1–1 Bournemouth | 15% |
| Burnley 0–2 Bournemouth | 13% |
| Burnley 2–2 Bournemouth | 10% |
| Burnley 0–1 Bournemouth | 8% |
| Burnley 2–1 Bournemouth | 7% |
| Burnley 1–3 Bournemouth | 6% |
| Burnley 0–0 Bournemouth | 5% |
| Burnley 4–1 Bournemouth | 4% |
| Burnley 3–1 Bournemouth | 3% |
My Picks
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
Despite Burnley’s urgency in the relegation battle, the overall momentum slightly favors Bournemouth. Burnley may rely on home support at Turf Moor and their need for points could push them to play with greater intensity, but their defensive vulnerabilities throughout the season make it difficult to trust them over ninety minutes. Bournemouth, sitting comfortably in mid-table, appear more balanced and have shown the ability to stay competitive both home and away. Burnley are capable of creating chances, especially in a high-pressure match, but Bournemouth’s consistency and stronger overall form suggest they hold the edge, with a narrow away victory or a hard-fought draw appearing the most realistic outcomes.
