Sunderland welcome Brighton to the Stadium of Light in an intriguing mid-table Premier League encounter. The Black Cats come into the match after a disappointing FA Cup exit, losing 1–0 away to Port Vale in the fifth round at Vale Park. However, their league form showed resilience in the previous round when they secured an impressive 1–0 away victory over Leeds United. Sunderland have built much of their season on solid home performances, making the Stadium of Light a difficult venue for visiting teams.
Brighton, meanwhile, arrive following a narrow 1–0 defeat to Arsenal at the Amex Stadium, where Bukayo Saka scored the decisive goal early in the match. Despite that setback, Brighton remain relatively stable in the mid-table positions and continue to show a balanced approach between attack and defence. Their ability to control possession and remain organised has helped them stay competitive even when facing stronger sides.
The most recent meeting between these teams ended in a goalless draw at the Amex Stadium, highlighting how evenly matched they can be. Sunderland’s strong home record adds another layer of intrigue, while Brighton will be aiming to use their technical style of play to break that home resilience.
Can Sunderland win at home against Brighton?
Sunderland’s home form suggests they are more than capable of competing strongly in this matchup. Losing only two of their fourteen home games this season demonstrates the level of stability they have built at the Stadium of Light. Brighton, however, remain a tactically organised side and are capable of controlling the pace of the match. This balance makes the contest difficult to predict, with Sunderland likely relying on home support and defensive discipline, while Brighton will aim to dictate possession and create chances through structured build-up.
Match Facts
• Sunderland – 11th place – 40 points
• Brighton & Hove Albion – 14th place – 37 points
• Last 3 H2H meetings: 2 draws, 1 Brighton win
• Sunderland have lost only 2 of their 14 home matches this season
• Venue – Stadium of Light
• Referee – Thomas Kirk
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 3.50 | 5/2 | +250 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 5/2 | +245 |
| Brighton | 2.30 | 5/4 | +130 |
Sunderland (Last 5 PL Games)
- Leeds 0–1 Sunderland
- Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 1–3 Fulham
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland
Brighton (Last 5 PL Games)
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal
- Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest
- Brentford 0–2 Brighton
- Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton
- Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace
Sunderland this season statistics
- 10 Wins – 10 Draws – 9 Losses
Home Record
- 7 Wins – 5 Draws – 2 Losses
Brighton this season statistics
- 9 Wins – 10 Draws – 10 Losses
Away Record
- 3 Wins – 4 Draws – 7 Losses
Head-to-Head
- Brighton 0–0 Sunderland (Dec 2025)
- Brighton 1–1 Sunderland (Aug 2011)
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions
Sunderland goals this season
- 30 goals scored
- 34 goals conceded
- xG created per match ≈ 0.93
- xG conceded per match ≈ 1.46
Sunderland home goals this season
- 22 goals scored
- 13 goals conceded
- xG created ≈ 1.28
- xG conceded ≈ 1.25
Brighton goals this season
- 38 goals scored
- 36 goals conceded
- xG created per match ≈ 1.45
- xG conceded per match ≈ 1.38
Brighton away goals this season
- 16 goals scored
- 20 goals conceded
- xG created ≈ 1.39
- xG conceded ≈ 1.51
Head-to-Head (Recent EPL Meetings)
- Brighton 0–0 Sunderland (2025)
- Brighton 1–0 Sunderland (2011)
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Sunderland | Brighton |
|---|---|
| Romaine Mundle (Injured) | Kaoru Mitoma (Injured) |
| Dennis Cirkin (Injured) | Solly March (Injured) |
| Brian Brobbey (Injured) | Tzimas (Injured) |
| Nordi Mukiele (Injured) | Adam Webster (Injured) |
| Jocelyn Ta Bi (Injured) | Reinildo Mandava (Injured) |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.88 | 5/6 | -114 |
| No | 2.04 | 21/20 | +104 |
Sunderland scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 9 in 29
- Failed to score: 10 in 29
Sunderland at Home
- Clean sheets: 4 in 14
- Failed to score: 2 in 14
Brighton scoring & clean sheet
- Clean sheets: 6 in 29
- Failed to score: 7 in 29
Brighton Away
- Clean sheets: 2 in 14
- Failed to score: 4 in 14
Head-to-Head
- Brighton 0–0 Sunderland (2025)
- Brighton 1–0 Sunderland (2011)
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 31% |
| Draw | 30% |
| Brighton Win | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% |
| BTTS – Yes | 55% |
| BTTS – No | 45% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunderland 1–1 Brighton | 18% |
| Sunderland 1–2 Brighton | 15% |
| Sunderland 2–1 Brighton | 12% |
| Sunderland 0–1 Brighton | 10% |
| Sunderland 1–0 Brighton | 8% |
| Sunderland 2–2 Brighton | 7% |
| Sunderland 0–0 Brighton | 6% |
| Sunderland 0–2 Brighton | 6% |
| Sunderland 2–0 Brighton | 5% |
| Sunderland 1–3 Brighton | 4% |
My Picks
| Sunderland Win or Draw |
Final Verdict
Overall, this fixture looks finely balanced, but Sunderland AFC may hold a slight advantage due to their strong home form at the Stadium of Light. Brighton & Hove Albion possess the technical quality and tactical organisation to control possession and create chances, yet their inconsistent away performances could make this a challenging trip. Sunderland’s defensive discipline and ability to remain competitive at home suggest they can keep the match tight, while Brighton will rely on patience and structured build-up to find openings. Given both teams’ mid-table stability and recent low-scoring head-to-head results, a closely contested match with small margins deciding the outcome appears the most realistic scenario.
