Newcastle United host Sunderland at St James’ Park in Matchweek 31 for one of the most intense fixtures in English football, the Tyne-Wear derby. This clash arrives at a crucial stage of the season, with both teams separated by just two points in the table and fighting for momentum in the mid-table battle.
Newcastle come into this match after a humiliating exit from the Champions League, where they were heavily beaten by Barcelona 7–2 on the night and 8–3 on aggregate at Camp Nou. It was a result that exposed major defensive issues and will have dented confidence. However, they did respond positively in the Premier League, securing an impressive 1–0 away win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, with Anthony Gordon scoring the decisive goal in the 18th minute. That result showed they can still compete domestically despite European struggles.
Sunderland, on the other hand, also arrive after a disappointing result. They suffered a 1–0 home defeat to Brighton at the Stadium of Light, continuing their inconsistent run of form. While they have shown resilience at times this season, they have struggled to consistently convert performances into points.
The previous meeting between these two sides ended in a 1–0 victory for Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. In a rather unusual moment, the only goal of the match came from a Nick Woltemade own goal, where his attempted clearance ended up in his own net. That result will give Sunderland confidence heading into this derby, knowing they have already beaten Newcastle once this season.
The big question for this match is whether Newcastle can make their home advantage count or if Sunderland can once again frustrate them. St James’ Park is known for its electric atmosphere, especially on derby day, and Newcastle will be expected to respond strongly after their European disappointment. However, Sunderland’s better historical record in this fixture suggests they are more than capable of causing problems.
Match Preview
• Competition: Premier League – Matchweek 31
• Venue: St James’ Park
• Referee: Anthony Taylor
• Newcastle position: 9th – 42 points
• Sunderland position: 13th – 40 points
Head-to-Head (All competitions – 14 matches):
• Newcastle wins – 3
• Draws – 4
• Sunderland wins – 7
Match Odds Prediction
| Outcome | Decimal | Fraction | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.74 | 8/11 | -135 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 |
| Sunderland | 5.50 | 9/2 | +450 |
Newcastle (Last 5 PL Games)
- 1–0 vs Chelsea F.C. W
- 2–1 vs Manchester United W
- 2–3 vs Everton F.C. L
- 1–2 vs Manchester City L
- 2–1 vs Tottenham W
Sunderland (Last 5 PL Games)
- 0–1 vs Brighton & Hove Albion L
- 1–0 vs Leeds United W
- 1–1 vs AFC Bournemouth D
- 1–3 vs Fulham F.C. L
- 0–1 vs Liverpool F.C. L
Newcastle United
- 12W – 6D – 12L
Home Record
- 8W – 2D – 5L
Sunderland
- 10W – 10D – 10L
Away Record
- 3W – 5D – 7L
Head-to-Head (Last 5 PL Meetings)
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 0–1 Sunderland
Win Probability
Over/Under Goals Predictions & Xg statistics
Newcastle Goal Profile
- Scored: 43 (1.43 per game)
- Conceded: 43 (1.43 per game)
- xG scored: ~1.43
- xG conceded: ~1.43
At Home
- Scored: 28 (1.87 per game)
- Conceded: 24 (1.60 per game)
Sunderland Goal Profile
- Scored: 30 (1.00 per game)
- Conceded: 35 (1.17 per game)
Away
- Scored: 8 (0.53 per game)
- Conceded: 21 (1.40 per game)
- xG scored: ~0.53
Head-to-Head Trend
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 0–1 Sunderland
Over/Under Goals Probability %
Anytime Goalscorer Probability %
Unavailable / Injured Players
| Newcastle United | Sunderland |
| Willock | Reinildo |
| Tonali | Mukiele |
| Krafth | Roefs |
| Guimaraes | Le fee |
| Miley | Jocelin Ta Bi |
| Schar | Traore |
| Angulo | |
| Mundle |
Both Team To Score (BTTS) Prediction
| Market | Decimal | Fractional | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.94 | 10/11 | -106 |
| No | 2.04 | 21/20 | +104 |
Newcastle BTTS Profile
- Clean sheets: 8
- Failed to score: 7
At Home
- Clean sheets: 3
- Failed to score: 1
Sunderland BTTS Profile
- Clean sheets: 9
- Failed to score: 10
Away
- Clean sheets: 2
- Failed to score: 7
Head-to-Head Trend
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland
- Sunderland 3–0 Newcastle
- Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 0–1 Sunderland
BTTS Probability %
Probability Table
| Market / Selection | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle Win | 57% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Sunderland Win | 18% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 31% |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% |
| BTTS – Yes | 46% |
| BTTS – No | 54% |
| Newcastle & Over 2.5 | 34% |
| Newcastle Win to Nil | 30% |
| Draw & Under 2.5 | 14% |
Correct Score Probability
| Correct Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 2–0 Sunderland | 18% |
| Newcastle 1–0 Sunderland | 15% |
| Newcastle 2–1 Sunderland | 14% |
| Newcastle 3–0 Sunderland | 10% |
| 1–1 Draw | 9% |
| Newcastle 3–1 Sunderland | 8% |
| 0–0 Draw | 7% |
| Sunderland 0–1 Newcastle | 6% |
| Sunderland 1–2 Newcastle | 6% |
| Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle | 4% |
My Picks
| Over 1.5 Goals |
| BTTS – Yes |
Final Verdict
This derby is far closer than the odds might initially suggest, mainly because emotion and history tend to override form in fixtures like this. Newcastle have the stronger squad on paper, home advantage, and the attacking quality to control large spells of the game, especially at St James’ Park where intensity often overwhelms opponents. However, their recent defensive collapse in Europe raises real concerns about composure under pressure. Sunderland, while less consistent and weaker in attack overall, have shown they can frustrate Newcastle and take advantage of key moments, as seen in their previous win.
Over ninety minutes, Newcastle’s superior attacking options and home atmosphere should give them the edge, but it is unlikely to be comfortable. Expect a tense, physical contest where Sunderland stay competitive, yet Newcastle’s quality in decisive moments makes them slight favorites to secure a narrow victory rather than a dominant one.
